i never said Carney is or isn't capitulating
i just pointed out we can not afford to wait 18 months
here is Trumps leverage vs Canada
- Canadas economy is 2/3 trade dependant
- 3/4 of Canadas trade is with the US
- The US economy is 2/3 domestic consumption
- 17 to 20% of US trade is with Canada
he can wait us out
- The US economy is 2/3 domestic consumption
no he is not trying to tank the world economy.
he is risking tanking the world economy. , but that is not his objective
he is a lot of things , many of which are despicable / repulsive, but he is not stupid
there is a trade deal , he loves to do deals
so for Canada the question is
- do you do a deal giving up some concessions on supply management while getting concessions on softwood lumber and saving our auto sector or
- wait it out knowing our economy will permanently shrink
if we do not get a deal preserving our auto sector, Trump will steal a huge chuck of it via lower corporate tax rates over 4 years and tariff uncertainty over 18 months
if Carney implements an industrial Carbon tax,/ carbon import tariffs the Auto makers will shift production to the US at an even faster pace like as in lets get the hell out of there.
the implications of waiting it out for debt laden Ontario will be devastating (i.e. possibly provincial govt insolvency >>>> Health care Funding)