As somebody recently said, it's never too early to discuss.
Jays record the last 5 years. I think I see a trend. Will it change and if so, how much?
2015--93-69
2016--89-73
2017--76-86
2018--73-89
2019--67-95
Last year overall may be a difficult year to use as a barometer. Jays had such a terrible start but had a brand new rookie manager, and brought in a ton of new faces/rookies. Obviously it was going to take time for all the dust to settle as all parties were getting used to each other and many getting used to the bigs so it may not be fair to use the early part of the season, even up to and including June.
In September a lot of games are meaningless since many teams are just playing out the string and mainly looking at their call-ups. In the past we've been enthused by teams with good September records but then they revert to mediocrity again the next year, so I don't think those games are the best barometer with which to assess what may come next year.
As such, it seems to me that the months of July and August would be an appropriate and possibly best part of the season to look at to give us some kind of idea of what next year may bring. The team probably played their best baseball, our young core was there for a good chunk of that period, the manager had some time to get used to the majors, got to play around with batting orders and positions on the field and assess what he had to work with and most games in those months would be considered meaningful since most teams were running out their best rosters. I imagine that there will be significant turnover between now and the start of the season, but based on past performance I really don't see what part of the season would be a better parameter with which to forecast. So in the months of July and August, the Jays had a record of 23-29. Versus teams at .500 or better Jays were 9-12 and against sub .500 teams were 14-17. That's about 1/3 of a season. Or we can totally throw out last year all together and not even consider it.
So far, via trade, we brought in a back of the rotation starter at $8M so we may not have as many bullpen days, which frankly, are embarrassments. I read that there is interest in some of the Jays catchers. Do we have any other legitimate trade bait? It is doubtful that Jays will go after top tier FAs such as Cole or Strasburg or Betts. What mid-level FAs would be reasonable expectations? How much are Jays willing to pay? I don't think you want the young core improving but their efforts are squandered because there is no pitching. That's not how to build a winning culture. Will we re-sign Giles? Will we get a solid outfielder? I think our outfield is below par.
What should our expectations be for 2020, year 5 of the current management's regime? Can we play .500 baseball next year? Is .500 ball acceptable for 5 years of an experienced executive with affluent ownership in a large city that has proven that it will support a winning/competitive team? I think this may be a make or break year as I doubt Rogers has been very happy with decreased attendance, viewership and revenue even with a decreased payroll. I'm curious to see what and how much they do prior to opening day.
Jays record the last 5 years. I think I see a trend. Will it change and if so, how much?
2015--93-69
2016--89-73
2017--76-86
2018--73-89
2019--67-95
Last year overall may be a difficult year to use as a barometer. Jays had such a terrible start but had a brand new rookie manager, and brought in a ton of new faces/rookies. Obviously it was going to take time for all the dust to settle as all parties were getting used to each other and many getting used to the bigs so it may not be fair to use the early part of the season, even up to and including June.
In September a lot of games are meaningless since many teams are just playing out the string and mainly looking at their call-ups. In the past we've been enthused by teams with good September records but then they revert to mediocrity again the next year, so I don't think those games are the best barometer with which to assess what may come next year.
As such, it seems to me that the months of July and August would be an appropriate and possibly best part of the season to look at to give us some kind of idea of what next year may bring. The team probably played their best baseball, our young core was there for a good chunk of that period, the manager had some time to get used to the majors, got to play around with batting orders and positions on the field and assess what he had to work with and most games in those months would be considered meaningful since most teams were running out their best rosters. I imagine that there will be significant turnover between now and the start of the season, but based on past performance I really don't see what part of the season would be a better parameter with which to forecast. So in the months of July and August, the Jays had a record of 23-29. Versus teams at .500 or better Jays were 9-12 and against sub .500 teams were 14-17. That's about 1/3 of a season. Or we can totally throw out last year all together and not even consider it.
So far, via trade, we brought in a back of the rotation starter at $8M so we may not have as many bullpen days, which frankly, are embarrassments. I read that there is interest in some of the Jays catchers. Do we have any other legitimate trade bait? It is doubtful that Jays will go after top tier FAs such as Cole or Strasburg or Betts. What mid-level FAs would be reasonable expectations? How much are Jays willing to pay? I don't think you want the young core improving but their efforts are squandered because there is no pitching. That's not how to build a winning culture. Will we re-sign Giles? Will we get a solid outfielder? I think our outfield is below par.
What should our expectations be for 2020, year 5 of the current management's regime? Can we play .500 baseball next year? Is .500 ball acceptable for 5 years of an experienced executive with affluent ownership in a large city that has proven that it will support a winning/competitive team? I think this may be a make or break year as I doubt Rogers has been very happy with decreased attendance, viewership and revenue even with a decreased payroll. I'm curious to see what and how much they do prior to opening day.