Retracements during a bully cycle are the norm, but I always find it hard to stomach since my positions are naked and not hedged one cent. The pullbacks could be 20%, 30% and up to 40% max, the following are the approximate BTC levels at : 20%: $ 81,640 , 30%: $75,800 & 40%: $ 64,980. Are we still in the bull cycle or a new bear ?
We are still in the bull cycle, but don’t believe the hype about how strong this market is and how it’s going to be a super cycle.
The theoretical peak, if it follows mathematically from the previous cycles is 120,000, due to diminishing returns.
We are in the middle of the parabolic phase and have only gone from 65,000 to 93,000. This, despite the most bullish economic, political and regulatory backdrop ever. With hundreds of billions from ETFs and Michael Saylor buying like crazy.
There is absolutely no way btc is hitting 500k like some are saying. Not even 200k.
Maybe 120-160k at the most. Meanwhile there could be a black swan event that could cause btc to crash. Microstrategy is doing something extremely risky and a crash in btc could cause a cascading effect, where Microstrategy is ultimately forced to sell its bitcoin and bitcoin just tanks. People are really complacent and so sure that this will be the biggest bull run ever right now, but it’s when people are most complacent and think nothing can go wrong that things do.
After alt season is done this spring, I’m out of crypto for good. Holding until the end of the year, hoping bitcoin will hit 200k isn’t worth the risk. There are far safer alternatives.
www.tradingview.com
polymarket.com
whaleportal.com
