Okay, this is my updated prediction, and what I'm going to do. I realized I made some errors in my last prediction.
1)March 10-early April: For the next three or so weeks, Bitcoin will continue to slowly rise before halving, maybe even make some big moves, inching towards 100k.
2)The halving will be in April, and in anticpation, Bitcoin will steadily increase its pace of gains
3)The media will begin to hype up the fact Bitcoin keeps reaching new Milestones. Demand for ETFs soar just like lottery tickets during powerball. Bitcoin will start rocketing towards 100k.
5)Early April:In about three weeks, and on the way up to the 100k mark, there will be a 10-25% correction caused either by manipulation to spook investors or investors taking profit, and drive down the price
6)After the correction, around early to mid April (before the halving date) it will continue to go up to 120-180,000. Then the whales will dump to take profit, kill off investors, and drive down the price.
7)Mid April to May (probably before the halvind date of April 20)The price will plummmet to around 50% of the peak, so roughly 60-90k.
8)Mid/Late April to Late May/June: Whales will buy back in and prices will recover, until a new high is reached, forming a double top like the last cycle.
It's impossible to say how it would go, but we can probably see a peak of 150k-250k. It will be fueld by new investors fomoing in, the halving date which will happen after the crash, and the Fed's decision to cut rates, supplying fresh money into the system.
9)Sometime in late summer/early fall: The price will begin to crash drastically, eventually to 50-75k, and the cycle will finish.
My strategy is a quick, get in, get out strategy.
1)Hold until Bitcoin reaches 130k or more until early April
2)When the smaller correction comes somewhere between 70k to 100k, I will hold and not sell. The biggest mistake and pitfall is to panic and sell.
3)In early April, when Bitcoin when Bitcoin reaches around 150k and starts to stabilize, I will dollar cost average out every day as soon as the gains start to decelerate and plateau. If I see a sharp decline, I will exit immediately. In fact, as soon as the price stabilizes and starts to decline, I think I will cash out immediately, everything. Why risk the unknown for a few thousand more dollars?
4)Most likely, like the last cycle, the large selling by whales will trigger panic and drive down the price around 50%. I wll buy back in for some amount at this point, and hold until the new high is reached, and start selling off when prices stabilize or fall.
Key points: dont' be greedy, aim to 2x to 3x your money if you just bought in at 60K level. Don't panic during correctons, hold and DON'T sell. Sell over a few days as soon as Bitcoin reaches 120-180k, stabilizes, and then gradually the momentum turns, and the prices keep falling. Lock in your profits, and don't be greedy and try to wait for higher prices. They may come, but you risk losing everything, and might have to wait another four years.
Also, since I do not own my Bitcoin directly, but through an ETF, which cannot be traded on weekens and holidays I will sell immediately on a Friday if I have reached the 120-200k level, and we are in the stabilising phase, with prices flat or falling. I don't want to be helpless during the weekend while Bitcoin crashes 30-50%. The May 3 date on Friday, the day the Fed announces rate cuts is crucial. Bitcoin could crash over the weekend, even if they announce rate cuts.