Actually...
bigdik said:
The only way this question can be definitively answered is if A-Rod dropped dead tomorrow.
...and unfortunately, we can come close to answering it without A-Rod actually kneeling over.
We've actually had an example of a player "dropping dead" during his career.
Roberto Clemente
Hits-3000 HR-240 RBI-1305 TB-4492 BB-621 SB-83 CS-46 OBP-.359 SLUG-.475 AVG-.317
Now, Roberto was a fine outfielder. 12 Gold Gloves. Two World Series rings. But save for the 3000 hits and his career average, has offensive stats are pretty soft, even for a relatively dead ball era. And remember, he was an outfielder - and these stats came over 18 seasons. Except for 1966 and 1967, he's a nice hitting single slapping outfielder with a good glove. HOF? Well, yes, the 3000 hits get him there. But was he overwhelming or dominating in any way? Doesn't look like it to me.
Alex Rodriguez
Hits-1901 HR-429 RBI-1226 TB-3576 BB-730 SB-226 CS-56 OBP-385 SLUG-.577 AVG.307
Now, first of all, let's remember two things. One, the A-Rod stats you are looking at are for 12 seasons, versus 18. Second, 10 of those seasons were as a Gold Glove level shortstop. Say that again - 350 HR from a Gold Glove shortstop.
So, let’s see, more HR, comparable RBIs in 6 fewer seasons, 900 fewer TBs (less than 3 seasons worth for A-Rod) in 6 fewer seasons, three times the stolen bases, higher OBP, higher SLUG, comparably batting average. Hmmm…looks like pretty fair comparison for A-Rod, except HE WAS A SHORTSTOP, not an outfielder (yes, yes, Clemente played center). Plus the sympathy factor for A-Rod dropping dead. I say he's in - no question.
Well, what if A-Rod doesn't die, but just stops playing at the peak of his career due to injury? Well, unfortunately again, we can make a comparison.
Kirby Puckett
Hits-2304 HR-207 RBI-1085 TB-3453 BB-450 SB-134 CS-76 OBP.360 SLUG-.477 AVG-.318
Now note it just so happens that Kirby played exactly 12 seasons, same as A-Rod. More hits…ok. Less than half the HRs. Fewer RBIs. Fewer Total Bases. Fewer walks, half as many stolen bases. Comparable on base percentage, but the slugging percentages aren’t even close. Average again comparable. And again, we are talking an outfielder (a 6 Gold Glove winning outfielder, mind you) versus a Shortstop / 3rd baseman.
Bottom line – unless A-Rod gets booted for gambling or steroids, he is going to the HOF no matter WHAT he does for the balance of his career, including nothing at all.