Alberta leaving CPP could backfire on Pee Pee

[Frankfooter]

Correction. It’s everyone’s money including people that work there. And they are legally entitled to the their legal share. Which will include their contributions and some manner of appreciation of assets. Which, if push come to shove will be determined by the Supreme Court.

While you are allowed an opinion, Excuse me I doubt your expertise on it, given oh so much, nor do you have any say in it whatever so ever.

Maybe you should have been a little more concerned about it when you voted to phase out oil, given you seem worried about it now.

The feds have a good record with investing for CPP.
Alberta has a shitty record and is now being lead by a freedom convoy type who wants invermectin available for everyone.

Independent businesses don't want it and only 21% of voters want it.

Made-in-Alberta pension plan isn't resonating with voters: poll

The Leger poll shows only 21 per cent are in favour of replacing the Canada Pension Plan with an Alberta version

calgaryherald.com

You know who wants it?
Smith and the people who will make bank from it, like they did with their electric generation.

 

[silentkisser]

Here is the thing about all of this: It is really impossible to know how an APP would perform compared to the CPPIB, which is internationally known, revered and has a solid return on its investments that outpace the vast majority of other plans. They have the scale to pay minimal fees and the experience to make deals.

The problem here is right off the hopper the figures the report use are just insane and have no basis in reality. There is no way Alberta is entitled to 53% of the CPP. So, every other figure they use is dubious at best. Will Albertan's see a slight decrease in contributions? It is entirely possible. But probably not the $1500 or so they claim. I mean, as I mentioned previously, the APP would need to hire professionals (or outsource part of it) to manage the plan, they would pay higher fees (as would the CPP without Alberta), and while their population in young right now...it won't be forever. Who is to say that the energy transition happens faster than anyone expects and the oil and gas boom that has fuelled Alberta dries up?

There is a lot of risk involved with this decoupling, but the fact that this report fudges key figures and uses pie-in-the-sky reasoning to advocate for this tells you all you need to know. It is another half-baked idea from Smith and the UCP that doesn't explain ALL the challenges and risks. If I was in Alberta I'd vote against it.

 

[Not getting younger]

Here is the thing about all of this: It is really impossible to know how an APP would perform compared to the CPPIB, which is internationally known, revered and has a solid return on its investments that outpace the vast majority of other plans. They have the scale to pay minimal fees and the experience to make deals.

The problem here is right off the hopper the figures the report use are just insane and have no basis in reality. There is no way Alberta is entitled to 53% of the CPP. So, every other figure they use is dubious at best. Will Albertan's see a slight decrease in contributions? It is entirely possible. But probably not the $1500 or so they claim. I mean, as I mentioned previously, the APP would need to hire professionals (or outsource part of it) to manage the plan, they would pay higher fees (as would the CPP without Alberta), and while their population in young right now...it won't be forever. Who is to say that the energy transition happens faster than anyone expects and the oil and gas boom that has fuelled Alberta dries up?

There is a lot of risk involved with this decoupling, but the fact that this report fudges key figures and uses pie-in-the-sky reasoning to advocate for this tells you all you need to know. It is another half-baked idea from Smith and the UCP that doesn't explain ALL the challenges and risks. If I was in Alberta I'd vote against it.

Silent.
whether fudging or overstating to gain more support should a referendum happen, or simply as the starting point ahead of negotiations should a referendum be a go. No one knows. Even the people that would have better ideas, than anyone here are all over the map. That alone should be giving people……

It would take actuaries “forever” to drill down through stuff. Let’s for arguments sake just agree Tmbre is close. 20-25%. If your the government and CPP and your priority is protecting pensioners as much as possible. Would you risk the Supreme Court siding with you at “25-27%” or very possibly deciding “33-38%”?

Re scales of economy.
BY FAR, not a little BY FAR the best run pension plan is OTPP (Ontario Teachers). Net assets as at fiscal year end 2022

just 240 billion…
And who manages their pension plan…..

So to think an APP can’t outperform CPP by a country mile is just wrong and illustrates just how little people know.. ( not saying you do)

 

[silentkisser]

Silent.
whether fudging or overstating to gain more support should a referendum happen, or simply as the starting point ahead of negotiations should a referendum be a go. No one knows. Even the people that would have better ideas, than anyone here are all over the map. That alone should be giving people……

It would take actuaries “forever” to drill down through stuff. Let’s for arguments sake just agree Tmbre is close. 20-25%. If your the government and CPP and your priority is protecting pensioners as much as possible. Would you risk the Supreme Court siding with you at “25-27%” or very possibly deciding “33-38%”?

Re scales of economy.
BY FAR, not a little BY FAR the best run pension plan is OTPP (Ontario Teachers). Net assets as at fiscal year end 2022

just 240 billion…
And who manages their pension plan…..

So to think an APP can’t outperform CPP by a country mile is just wrong and illustrates just how little people know.. ( not saying you do)

I think the issue here is the UCP is playing fast a loose with facts and figures. They've launched a website that asks VERY leading questions about an APP, except for the question if they should leave the CPP.

As for if a APP could outperform the CPP...I don't know. I mean, there is more to running a pension fund than buying stocks and bonds or investing in infrastructure projects. As mentioned, the fees are a major thing, and the bigger you are, the smaller your fees. Now, OTPP is a very well managed fund, no questions, as is OMERS, CDPQ, HOOPP and so on and so forth. The CPPIB over the last 10 years has done exceptionally well.

Now, could the APP make bigger and better bets and see greater fund growth? Sure, but they would have higher fees. And then there is the whole concern over political interference. Right now, no pension fund in Canada is mandated to invest in any sector or area of the country (as far as I know). But, would the APP be like this? Or would they be forced to allocate a certain amount of funds to Alberta's energy sector? Or the premier's pet projects? That's where the biggest issue could be.

But, we'll see what happens. I think a referendum is a fait accompli, and the question will likely be misleading. Will the majority of Albertans approve of it? Hard to say.

 

[Not getting younger]

OMERS is good too too. I think I’ve mentioned a few times
OTPP owned a major stake in us and sat on our board ….

Now, could the APP make bigger and better bets and see greater fund growth? Sure, but they would have higher fees

No idea who manages, runs, staffs that fund (CPP) Likely people that work for the govt. Their mandate may also restrain the types of vehicles, what kind of risk, foreign content and more and how much of this or that (limits) . That too might mean higher cost……aka different levels of expertise….

. Those that did the report and analysis for Alberta….Does anyone here know how good or qualified they are? Or are we all just assuming they have no clue, don’t know their analysis would be ripped apart, under a magnifying glass. And are just avg financial planners.Near as I could find, they aren’t exactly newbies.

Some might want to read this…part 1 in particular

derivative means a financial instrument or agreement whose value is derived from or is based on an underlying asset or the relationship between two underlying assets, other than

• (a) a convertible security;
• (b) an asset-backed security;
• (c) a security of a mutual fund;
• (d) an index participation unit;
• (e) a security of a non-redeemable fund;
• (f) a government or corporate strip bond; or
• (g) a listed dividend share of a subdivided equity or fixed income security. (instrument dérivé)
• 
  

  Canada Pension Plan Investment Board Regulations

  Federal laws of Canada

  laws-lois.justice.gc.ca

 

[richaceg]

Lol...well sure it could back fire...but every step Trudeau has done lately has been backfiring already... India and Nazi guest... but hey...

 

[bver_hunter]

Lol...well sure it could back fire...but every step Trudeau has done lately has been backfiring already... India and Nazi guest... but hey...

Except that the Nazi guest was invited by the Speaker and Independent of the PM's office. India are just bullshitting about their innocence in the killing of Nijjar although even the US Intelligence Agencies provided Canada with the proof!!

 

[Frankfooter]

Lol...well sure it could back fire...but every step Trudeau has done lately has been backfiring already... India and Nazi guest... but hey...

India killed a Canadian, that's on India.
The speaker invited a likely Nazi, that was on the speaker.

 

[richaceg]

Except that the Nazi guest was invited by the Speaker and Independent of the PM's office. India are just bullshitting about their innocence in the killing of Nijjar although even the US Intelligence Agencies provided Canada with the proof!!

India killed a Canadian, that's on India.
The speaker invited a likely Nazi, that was on the speaker.

whether you like it or not...you both know trudeau, peepee and every politician shit the bed on this one...JT by proxy...

 

[Frankfooter]

Alberta is using Albertan tax money to buy ads in Ontario.

New ads popping up all over Toronto warning of blackouts and ‘quadrupled’ hydro bills are actually funded by Alberta

The Alberta government is rolling out an $8M national advertising campaign to protest federal energy regulations with the goal to reach net-zero emissions.

www.thestar.com

 

[squeezer]

Alberta is using Albertan tax money to buy ads in Ontario.

New ads popping up all over Toronto warning of blackouts and ‘quadrupled’ hydro bills are actually funded by Alberta

The Alberta government is rolling out an $8M national advertising campaign to protest federal energy regulations with the goal to reach net-zero emissions.

www.thestar.com

It will only get worse if PeePee wins. He will bend over backward to appease Alberta.