While that has been true in the past two elections I think the vote efficiency might favor the CPC this time. Because so much of the NDP vote is swinging to the Liberals much of that will happen in ridings where the Liberals are going to win anyways. Case in point Toronto. And don't forget the PPC poached 5% of the vote in the last election this time they won't be close to that because they aren't running candidates in more than half of all the ridings.Anything is possible, but the conservative vote is concentrated in rural areas, which are not seat-dense. Cons winning by 10,000 votes in rural Alberta counts the same as Liberals winning by 1 vote in a GTA riding.
Liberals have better vote efficiency is what I'm saying, so a tie in the popular vote favours the Liberals.
Trudeau lost the popular vote in 2019 and 2021, and got a 184 seat majority with 39.5% of the vote.
This election is going to be tight. I do think the Conservatives will have the most seats come tomorrow morning but it likely won't be enough to form a majority. They are likely going to need to form an alliance with the Bloc.