If we compare to that frustrating 2023 team that won 89 games, this team is similar on paper. Line up the teams and they are comparable... although the pitchers are a few years older. 89 wins certainly is above the reasonable range, but maybe 84-85 and then some close game luck.
Then again we have seen what happens when things go bad.
The biggest factors for the downfall last year in my view, were bad Bo and the bullpen. Both should be better. But others can decline as well.
I see this team as an 82-84 win team. Get some run luck and a couple breaks, it can compete for the 3rd wilcard -- which was 86 wins in the AL last year (more realistically going to be around 88). But some bad run luck and pen stinks., it could turn the other way too.