Blue Jays 2024
- Thread starter shack
- Start date
- Jun 15, 2004
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That’s exactly what gets me the most at times. So many people talk about “poor Rogers” while being concerned over the budget like it’s Canada’s soup kitchen. All the while, it’s one of the most powerful corporations in the country. This company is so powerful it’s a board of directors that appoints a president. No rich individual faces to this ownership group. They better be spending, after buying the Skydome for a fraction of the construction price that taxpayers had to pay for.
Philip
- Jun 15, 2004
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….. further, I have zero sympathy for Rogers and the budget they have to work with. Are you kidding me? Skydome costs the city of Toronto $570 million to build. And than Rogers goes ahead and purchases Skydome for $25 million. And they bought 80% of the Blue Jays for $160 million. So they got the Blue Jays and the stadium for under $200 million? Talk about making off like bandits. Zero sympathy.
By comparison, the Miami Marlins are MLB’s most affordable team to purchase at the going rate of $1 billion USD.
Philip
By comparison, the Miami Marlins are MLB’s most affordable team to purchase at the going rate of $1 billion USD.
Philip
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Drafting college players over high school players and getting ownership to open their purse strings is what former Blue Jays GM J.P. Retarded did and he got the same results as Shatkins. Time to move on.
@Toronto Passions @shack, and anyone else:
Here's your opportunity to put your mouth where the money is.
Here is a list of free agents in 2025:
Let's assume that the Jays' payroll for 2025 will be $230 Million, with the following commitments, (see post #1,299):
Vlad Guerrero: $32 Million*
George Springer: $24 Million
Kevin Gausman: $24 Million
Chris Bassitt: $22 Million
Jose Berrios: $18 Million
Bo Bichette: $12 Million
Chad Green: $10.5 Million
Jordan Romano: $10 Million*
Yariel Rodriguez: 3.6 Million
Daulton Varsho: $10 Million*
Alejandro Kirk: $6 Million*
Ryan Yarborough: $7 Million*
Genesis Cabrera: $5 Million*
Eric Swanson: $4 Million
Alek Manoah, Will Wagner, Joey Loperfedo, Leonardo Jimenez, Addison Bargar, Spencer Horowitz, Bowden Francis, Davis Schneider, Ernie Clement, Zack Pop: $10 Million total
Total: $198 Million
* indicates my estimate of 2025 salary for arbitration-eligible players.
These leaves about $32 Million to spend, with a lot of holes to fill.
Which free agents, if any, would you target, how much would you offer them, what makes you think they would chose to play in Toronto as opposed to anyplace else, and who would you cut from the payroll to accommodate their salary, if necessary?
Is Teoscar Hernandez anything more than a pipe dream? Can ANYTHING be done with THIS group to make them contenders next year? Keep in mind that Gausman, Bassitt, Bichette and Guerrero are all scheduled to become free agents after next season, and the Jays won't win often if Jimenez or Ernie Clement is the Shortstop.
Maybe now you see why I think moving Vlad is the best move, instead of trying to build around him. If you're not a contender, it's poor business to retain expiring assets that will only help the team stay out of the League basement. That's the price a team pays for striving for 'near parity performance'. Toronto is a BIG city, but as far as MLB goes, its a small market.
Here's your opportunity to put your mouth where the money is.
Here is a list of free agents in 2025:
Let's assume that the Jays' payroll for 2025 will be $230 Million, with the following commitments, (see post #1,299):
Vlad Guerrero: $32 Million*
George Springer: $24 Million
Kevin Gausman: $24 Million
Chris Bassitt: $22 Million
Jose Berrios: $18 Million
Bo Bichette: $12 Million
Chad Green: $10.5 Million
Jordan Romano: $10 Million*
Yariel Rodriguez: 3.6 Million
Daulton Varsho: $10 Million*
Alejandro Kirk: $6 Million*
Ryan Yarborough: $7 Million*
Genesis Cabrera: $5 Million*
Eric Swanson: $4 Million
Alek Manoah, Will Wagner, Joey Loperfedo, Leonardo Jimenez, Addison Bargar, Spencer Horowitz, Bowden Francis, Davis Schneider, Ernie Clement, Zack Pop: $10 Million total
Total: $198 Million
* indicates my estimate of 2025 salary for arbitration-eligible players.
These leaves about $32 Million to spend, with a lot of holes to fill.
Which free agents, if any, would you target, how much would you offer them, what makes you think they would chose to play in Toronto as opposed to anyplace else, and who would you cut from the payroll to accommodate their salary, if necessary?
Is Teoscar Hernandez anything more than a pipe dream? Can ANYTHING be done with THIS group to make them contenders next year? Keep in mind that Gausman, Bassitt, Bichette and Guerrero are all scheduled to become free agents after next season, and the Jays won't win often if Jimenez or Ernie Clement is the Shortstop.
Maybe now you see why I think moving Vlad is the best move, instead of trying to build around him. If you're not a contender, it's poor business to retain expiring assets that will only help the team stay out of the League basement. That's the price a team pays for striving for 'near parity performance'. Toronto is a BIG city, but as far as MLB goes, its a small market.
I think that the payroll will be closer to $250M.
Rogers needs to pay for those renovations and the Prez needs to keep his job. He will squeeze more money out of Eddie because both of those guys need a rebound year and that will take money because this roster is moribund and they have no assets good enough to get a good return via trades. The only way is to spend more money.
If it doesn't pan out, the prez gets shitcanned, the rebuild starts and that is when Eddie sheds his payroll. Next year is the make or break for prez and payroll.
Rogers needs to pay for those renovations and the Prez needs to keep his job. He will squeeze more money out of Eddie because both of those guys need a rebound year and that will take money because this roster is moribund and they have no assets good enough to get a good return via trades. The only way is to spend more money.
If it doesn't pan out, the prez gets shitcanned, the rebuild starts and that is when Eddie sheds his payroll. Next year is the make or break for prez and payroll.
MLB Luxury tax
The Jays paid $5.5 Million in Luxury Tax in 2023, and they might pay some this year. While their current roster is at $217 Million, tacked on to that is the portion of Biggio, Kiermaier and Turner's salaries they had to eat, Merrifield's buyout, the $2 Million owed to Paul de Jong for his .136 OPS in 44 at bats last year, plus Vogelbach's salary after being DFA'd, $2 Million for Joey Votto, etc.
$241 Million is the maximum before Luxury Tax for 2025, and the penalties are more severe for teams over the cap in three consecutive years. It's $244 Million for 2026. If the Jays pay any Luxury Tax THIS YEAR, the 2025 penalty will be 30% of any amount above $241 Million.
It would be that much harder to re-sign Guerrero if he has to go through arbitration one more time. If he isn't signed to an extension before the beginning of the 2025 season, his trade value will drop a little bit with every game he plays here. if he is extended, he's going to want a lot more than the $32 Million I estimated for 2025 arbitration.
- Jun 15, 2004
- 8,543
- 1,613
- 113
Why are you defending Rogers and allowing them to be cheapskates? Do you not realize how they have fleeced the entire system and made off with the commodities they have at an extremely lowball price? Make a trade or two to try to dump some salary blah blah blah whatever whatever, however these guys should be spending.
Philip
They reason they traded for Varsho was simply based on a number - his WAR from the previous year. It was a bonus that he was a left handed hitter so they pulled the trigger and gave up a perennial gold glove catcher who was 23! and a decent middle of the order bat. One of the worst trades I have ever seen in Toronto sports history.
Its so much easier to "get hot" when the games mean absolutely nothing isn't it?
Morena is the highest ever rated prospect to be traded before making it to the majors as a regular. Arizona's own GM said that had he played more games the previous season the Jays never would've traded him. It's more mind boggling that Atkins threw in Lourdis yet couldn't even get Arizona to throw in an AA ball prospect. Atkins just saw this trade as a supply and need rather than talent evaluation. Varsho is a great player but clearly they still could've improved their outfield defence without having to give up their top prospect unless it was for Juan Soto
The question to be asked, who's going to get this done: the Jays or The Red Sox?
Vlad Guerrero Jr 2024 game logs
I'm going to arbitrarily start Guerrero's 'hot streak' at June 23, because he only had three homers and six RBIs from June 1-22.
On June 22, the Jays were six games under .500, (35-41). Since then they are an additional four games under .500. Where would they be, without Vlad? Considerably closer to obtaining a better slot in next years amateur draft.
Individual stats lose a lot of meaning when they don't translate into Wins. shack would say 'it's not his fault. His teammates aren't doing their part'. If Vlad personally 'eats' 15% of next year's salary budget, with 30% more already earmarked for Springer, Bassitt and Gausman, that isn't going to leave much to build an offense around him. Selling lots of jerseys shouldn't be near the top of the list of team priorities. This team need to build a new ship, from the bottom up, instead of patching holes and painting the poop deck.
I'm going to arbitrarily start Guerrero's 'hot streak' at June 23, because he only had three homers and six RBIs from June 1-22.
On June 22, the Jays were six games under .500, (35-41). Since then they are an additional four games under .500. Where would they be, without Vlad? Considerably closer to obtaining a better slot in next years amateur draft.
Individual stats lose a lot of meaning when they don't translate into Wins. shack would say 'it's not his fault. His teammates aren't doing their part'. If Vlad personally 'eats' 15% of next year's salary budget, with 30% more already earmarked for Springer, Bassitt and Gausman, that isn't going to leave much to build an offense around him. Selling lots of jerseys shouldn't be near the top of the list of team priorities. This team need to build a new ship, from the bottom up, instead of patching holes and painting the poop deck.
- Jun 15, 2004
- 8,543
- 1,613
- 113
Then they should probably trade Chris Bassitt and George Springer. So that they can keep Guerrero.
With your support and doing all the number crunching for Rogers, I hope they at least give you free Wi-Fi. You must not remember the 2000s baseball very well in Toronto. Let me tell you my friend, a Toronto baseball team that nobody gives a rats ass about is a real thing and it lasts a very long time.
Philip
Who would take Springer's contract.
I was wondering if they would call up Joey Votto before Monday's series against Cincinnati, just for the optics of it, but Joey is only hitting .150 in Buffalo. If he can't hit minor league pitching, he might really embarrass himself against major league pitching.
A note regarding the Jays Budget. One of the things the Jays achieved at the trade deadline was that they got under the luxury tax line (barely). Not that this was some master class task by Atkins - it was just a matter of trading pending FA's in a failed season.
This is relevant going into 2025, since when they go over the luxury tax line in 2025 (which they will need to do to re-tool), this will reduce their luxury tax rate by 30% (it will be 20% instead of 50%). It may also help with draft pick comp if they lose a key FA after 2025, as they would not be a repeater during 2024. But the most relevant part of course is the luxury tax.
The luxury tax rate rules work as follows:
Year 1 - 20% over line (Jays hit this in 2023, and paid about $5M in tax)
Year 2 Repeater - 30%, (Jays would have hit this in 2024 if they did not suck)
Year 3 Repeater - 50%
So for 2025, they can reset back to 20%. This might save the team 5 to 10 million -- enough to get a decent reliever (if they sign the right one).
This is relevant going into 2025, since when they go over the luxury tax line in 2025 (which they will need to do to re-tool), this will reduce their luxury tax rate by 30% (it will be 20% instead of 50%). It may also help with draft pick comp if they lose a key FA after 2025, as they would not be a repeater during 2024. But the most relevant part of course is the luxury tax.
The luxury tax rate rules work as follows:
Year 1 - 20% over line (Jays hit this in 2023, and paid about $5M in tax)
Year 2 Repeater - 30%, (Jays would have hit this in 2024 if they did not suck)
Year 3 Repeater - 50%
So for 2025, they can reset back to 20%. This might save the team 5 to 10 million -- enough to get a decent reliever (if they sign the right one).
