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Get ready Kamala fans...this is just the beginning

Valcazar

Just a bundle of fucking sunshine
Mar 27, 2014
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Kaitlan is hot. I am going to be having dreams of unbuttoning that dress with my teeth tonight dammit!
She's pretty easy on the eyes.
No idea if she is any good as an actual reporter or anchor, though.
 
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WyattEarp

Well-known member
May 17, 2017
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Oddly enough Ben Shapiro wrote an op-ed about this in the Sun today. He says the "legacy" media is just stenographers for Harris and the Dems. I find it very rich that he would say something like that, considering all he really ever does is ignore or spin shit when Trump says anything dumb or bad.
What's odd is your trying to equate apples with broccoli. Ben Shapiro is a conservative political commentator. You don't listen to him for news reporting. Just like someone who follows Rachel Maddow doesn't expect her to objectively report the news.

The rest of the stuff you said about Fox News really depends on what hour you're watching. I can tell liberals here and in my personal circle get really aggravated when the news side of Fox News doesn't report the Biden Administration's in the most favorable light. It's a different tone on the same information.

They want to hear the economy is great. Inflation is not his fault. He wanted to cut an immigration deal this year. Etc. etc. etc.
 
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WyattEarp

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Obsessive poll watching isn't useful.

As for the closeness of the race, there are two theories about what's going on with the numbers.

Theory 1 ) This is the bump you would expect from the race changing and some big media events. Like you say, there will be a bump from the convention and then this will all settle down to the mean.
The equilbrium may have shifted some (that's always the hope for a campaign) but it is more like a 3-4 point bump from a convention or a debate that then regresses to the mean and results in a 1 point shift.

Theory 2) This is a case of momentum breaking through to a new equilibrium and will only escalate.

I am in theory 1, personally. I think most people are. But there are clearly some theory 2 people floating around the internet.
You deserve some credit for having tempered enthusiasm.

I also think we are in Theory 1. However, Kamala has a chance to breakthrough with the debate. Trump is showing signs of inflexibility in his approach. Some conservative commentators have said it's hard to get a 78 year-old to change. I agree. He needs to tighten it up and get focused.

The Trump campaign has brought back some previous campaign advisors. Perhaps one or two of them can be Trump whisperers.

Don Junior is a clown. He literally married Fox News and he's in an echo chamber. I'm also curious to know if a son and a rich, outspoken father can have blunt conversations.
 

WyattEarp

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Kaitlan is hot. I am going to be having dreams of unbuttoning that dress with my teeth tonight dammit!
There is something about Kaitlan Collins. She's not movie actress hot, but she has a certain something. High cheekbones and a great smile go a long way.
 

WyattEarp

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I've always loved this argument.

"Yes, they want to do this horrible thing! But vote them in anyway, something else will stop them!"
That's an oversimplification. The more you get down to district levels in states you have constituents with strong opinions that are distasteful nationally.
 
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Valcazar

Just a bundle of fucking sunshine
Mar 27, 2014
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You deserve some credit for having tempered enthusiasm.

I also think we are in Theory 1. However, Kamala has a chance to breakthrough with the debate. Trump is showing signs of inflexibility in his approach. Some conservative commentators have said it's hard to get a 78 year-old to change. I agree. He needs to tighten it up and get focused.
I'm mostly in theory 1 because nothing seems to move Trump's core numbers.
The debate didn't do it, the assassination attempt didn't do it, the RNC didn't do it, Biden stepping down didn't do it.

All the movement is on the democratic side as people who were ambivalent move in or out of support.
(That's support numbers, not voting, because those don't line up the same.)

So I think some of that momentum is people who were mostly "fuck this rematch" getting excited.
A bunch of those are more generally "fuck this system" people though, and will drop back off.

That's my gut, and we end up back with a close, polarized electorate and an election that turns on a few votes in key places because it is so shittily designed.

The Trump campaign has brought back some previous campaign advisors. Perhaps one or two of them can be Trump whisperers.

Don Junior is a clown. He literally married Fox News and he's in an echo chamber. I'm also curious to know if a son and a rich, outspoken father can have blunt conversations.
I would be amazed if Don Jr and Don Sr can have blunt and honest conversations. It just doesn't seem in their nature.
I don't know who can serve that kind of role with Trump. I suspect people were able to do so in the past, but don't know about now.
 

WyattEarp

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Thinking the MSM are stenographers for the Democratic Party is so detached from reality it would be laughable.
Are you saying the MSM also runs out to get the Democratic Party their lunch?
 
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Insidious Von

My head is my home
Sep 12, 2007
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Why did The King of Kings listen to his imbecile sons, JD Vance is dragging down his march to the White House. Now even Smol has denounced him!


When asked, Smol said he would piss on Vance's leg.

 

Valcazar

Just a bundle of fucking sunshine
Mar 27, 2014
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That's an oversimplification. The more you get down to district levels in states you have constituents with strong opinions that are distasteful nationally.
Sure, but the argument here isn't "It's a fringe position with little support".
It's "this will be unconstitutional".

So the pitch really is "Yeah, they want to do it and they can do it, but someone will stop them eventually."
It's not really a compelling counter argument to "Don't vote for these guys, they want to do this horrible thing."
 

WyattEarp

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May 17, 2017
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Sure, but the argument here isn't "It's a fringe position with little support".
It's "this will be unconstitutional".

So the pitch really is "Yeah, they want to do it and they can do it, but someone will stop them eventually."
It's not really a compelling counter argument to "Don't vote for these guys, they want to do this horrible thing."
Lots of things are found unconstitutional. There's lots of rhetoric out there on both sides that wouldn't pass judicial muster. Some of it is distasteful.

You might be looking at this from the standpoint that abortion rights should be championed. That's fine. I'm pro-choice from a position of tolerance and practicality.
 

Valcazar

Just a bundle of fucking sunshine
Mar 27, 2014
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Lots of things are found unconstitutional. There's lots of rhetoric out there on both sides that wouldn't pass judicial muster. Some of it is distasteful.

You might be looking at this from the standpoint that abortion rights should be championed. That's fine. I'm pro-choice from a position of tolerance and practicality.
I'm looking at it from the absurdity of defending "These people want to do this" with "It's unconstitutional" and not "No, they don't want to do it."

It's like the people who defend accusations of Trump being an authoritarian who wants to rule as one with "He's incompetent, though, so it won't happen".
 

bver_hunter

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Nov 5, 2005
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Kamala ahead of Donny Boy by 6 Points in the latest Poll:

Harris Leads Trump by 6 Points Nationally Before Democratic National Convention

Vice President Kamala Harris has a sizable lead over former President Donald Trump, 49% - 43% among likely voters; Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. receives 7 percent support, and Jill Stein, Cornel West, and Chase Oliver receive less than one percent support each, according to an Outward Intelligence poll of likely voters in the United States released today.

 
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WyattEarp

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Kamala ahead of Donny Boy by 6 Points in the latest Poll:

Harris Leads Trump by 6 Points Nationally Before Democratic National Convention

Vice President Kamala Harris has a sizable lead over former President Donald Trump, 49% - 43% among likely voters; Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. receives 7 percent support, and Jill Stein, Cornel West, and Chase Oliver receive less than one percent support each, according to an Outward Intelligence poll of likely voters in the United States released today.

Wow, Outward Intelligence sounds like it was named after you.
 
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y2kmark

Class of 69...
May 19, 2002
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Kamala ahead of Donny Boy by 6 Points in the latest Poll:

Harris Leads Trump by 6 Points Nationally Before Democratic National Convention

Vice President Kamala Harris has a sizable lead over former President Donald Trump, 49% - 43% among likely voters; Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. receives 7 percent support, and Jill Stein, Cornel West, and Chase Oliver receive less than one percent support each, according to an Outward Intelligence poll of likely voters in the United States released today.

Still hate to see the media dwelling on opinion polls. Pre season football at best...
 
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