You deserve some credit for having tempered enthusiasm.
I also think we are in Theory 1. However, Kamala has a chance to breakthrough with the debate. Trump is showing signs of inflexibility in his approach. Some conservative commentators have said it's hard to get a 78 year-old to change. I agree. He needs to tighten it up and get focused.
I'm mostly in theory 1 because nothing seems to move Trump's core numbers.
The debate didn't do it, the assassination attempt didn't do it, the RNC didn't do it, Biden stepping down didn't do it.
All the movement is on the democratic side as people who were ambivalent move in or out of support.
(That's support numbers, not voting, because those don't line up the same.)
So I think some of that momentum is people who were mostly "fuck this rematch" getting excited.
A bunch of those are more generally "fuck this system" people though, and will drop back off.
That's my gut, and we end up back with a close, polarized electorate and an election that turns on a few votes in key places because it is so shittily designed.
The Trump campaign has brought back some previous campaign advisors. Perhaps one or two of them can be Trump whisperers.
Don Junior is a clown. He literally married Fox News and he's in an echo chamber. I'm also curious to know if a son and a rich, outspoken father can have blunt conversations.
I would be amazed if Don Jr and Don Sr can have blunt and honest conversations. It just doesn't seem in their nature.
I don't know who can serve that kind of role with Trump. I suspect people were able to do so in the past, but don't know about now.