The future of housing? Your opinions

[SchlongConery]

Feels like a lot. #property #economy #australia #comedy

youtube.com

 

[JohnLarue]

Living standards and overall wealth, are NOT going down. They are infact going UP. So this statement is untrue.

View attachment 321902

inflation has most certainly impacted Living standards and overall wealth
So his statement is true.

mean family income is not definitive without viewing the cost of living
Argentina household income in nominal terms has also increased
the cost of living has increased at a much faster rate






you really do not understand economics do you?
where did you study and fail to learn economics?

 

[JohnLarue]

LOL. By proving my point, you shot down your own criticism of an increased population. And you don't even realize it. Too funny!

but you said i provided no facts
so how could i have "shot down your own criticism of an increased population" ?

you are not very bright

 

[JohnLarue]

These interest rate hikes and inflation are very recent events, which will get better shortly. However it is demonstrably true that Canadian wealth, incomes and living standards have steadily improved over the years.

which will get better shortly?
you do not know that with any degree of certainty, pure speculation on your part

standards of living are tied to productivity & Canadas productivity per capita is declining relative to our competitors

we do not need more per capita. (human volumes)
we need more productivity per capita

When Will Inflation Go Down? – Forbes Advisor

The length of inflation cycles in the past have been different, depending on the root cause, says Art Hogan, managing director and chief market strategist at B. Riley Financial.

The longest period occurred starting in the mid-1970s and lasted about a decade, he says.

Determining how long inflation will last is tricky, says Guy LeBas, chief fixed income strategist and portfolio manager at Janney, a Philadelphia-based financial institution.

“The road from here to there is messy and it is hard to guess where services spending is going to go,” he says. “We are really bad at predicting inflation.”

The economy can rebound after periods of higher inflation. However, inflation can also precede a recession, which was the case in the 1970s.

 

[jalimon]

If they are such a net positive, why are living standards and overall wealth going down?

Great question indeed.

Our standard of living is going down primarily due to a lack of housing. This led to overpriced houses and crazy renting prices. Adding 1 million immigrants to a country with a huge housing shortage and expecting that things turn good is beyond stupid. We all pay for it.

Now don't start me about our taxes But you know what it's not taxes that put people in the street. The poor hardly pay taxes. It's lack of a having a basic salary that could put a roof on their head.

The situation was different 10 years ago. Now I would say to any immigrant from a warm country thinking about coming to canada... Don't!! Misery is much more enjoyable under the sun.

 

[JohnLarue]

Well inflation has actually gone down to 2.9% from a high of 8% in 2022. The Bank of Canada has also said that they are going to cut rates soon. This would contradict your assertions.

too funny
both the fed and the BofC have been walking back their number of projected cuts and pushing out the timing of projected rate cuts for the last 6 months

the inflation dragon has not been slayed

In March 2024, prices had increased by 3.5 percent compared to March 2023 according to the 12-month percentage change in the consumer price index — the monthly inflation rate for goods and services in the United States. The data represents U.S. city averages.Apr 15, 2024

getting back to the 2% target is going to be very challenging

 

[JohnLarue]

6 months is a very short duration in the grand scheme of things, especially to address a macro economic issue, that is impacted by multiple domestic and global factors. It will get there eventually. If it can get from 8% to 2.9%, it can get down to 2%.

you are missing the point
it took a decade to get the 1970s inflation under control

there is still wage inflationary pressure
unions do not give a rats ass about their impacts on inflation , nor do they give a rats ass about interest rates

the walk backs by the Fed / BofC show they have not slayed the inflation dragon
it certainly is not supportive of

which will get better shortly?

six months ?
you have no idea when inflation will get back to target

 

[Frankfooter]

we do not need more per capita. (human volumes)
we need more productivity per capita

Still arguing to pay people less so 'productivity' and profit goes up?

 

[jeff2]

Unfortunately for the Canada, limiting immigration will choke the Canadian economy as there is a dire labour shortage which immigration backstops. Immigration and housing are not mutually exclusive, both must happening simultaneously which the government has already “figured out” but has no solution for. The current opposition has no solution neither.
Immigrants continue to do jobs that Canadians either cannot or will not do which is and more visually apparent in major centres across Canada and becoming more and more in smaller regional centres.
Can Canada “ wait until things are figured out” to limit immigration. The answer is obviously, no.
In 2023, immigrants brought in 22 billion dollars to Canada and did in the neighbourhood of 300, 000 jobs that Canadians either cannot or will not do, many primarily from India.
The Canada - India economic patch solution is something that the US, Western Europe, Japan and other nations with decreasing workforces have failed to do.

I wish people cared as much about the massive labour surplus in the 1980s and 1990s with sky high unemployment. Boomers and women streaming in and to lesser extent immigration(but more so when Mulroney jacked it up).

 

[Anbarandy]

Still arguing to pay people less so 'productivity' and profit goes up?

That is why he is TERB's self-professed, sole billionaire capitalist titan of industry, commerce and greed is good ethos.

 

[SchlongConery]

You could make the same argument about the Nazis, Trump, the Taliban, the IDF, or Hamas. Grow up.

This country does not need a rapid increase in population. Nor does any other country. For that matter, neither does the entire world.

Rapid being the most important word.

Being the first native born son of refugee to Canada I am all for immigration and giving refuge to people in need.

As a mariner, we have an obligligation to change course and do all we can to rescue another vessel in distress. But a boat can only carry so many people or it will capsize, So sometimes people are left behind until we can return. Hence the saying ""women and children first".

If we try to take everybody aboard all at once, we risk capsizing the boat and all will be lost.

Canada needs more people to continue to support those of us already here. We've overspent and need younger, and more people to keep our debt and country afloat. That means more immigrants. And not just Doctors, engineers, lawyers and the vaunted professionals. In fact, what we could use most of right now is simple labour. Construction labour, agricultural labour, industrial labour, service labour.

But it seems that we don't have the infrastructure, nor can it be built fast enough at any price to keep up with a million new people every year. I understand most Canadians don't even have a family Doctor. And certainly there is no "starter homes" or reasonably priced rental housing that labourers can afford to live, least of all support a family.

 

[DesRicardo]

 

[SchlongConery]

Yes you can. And you will find that the negatives tip the scales massively in their disfavour. You can make that argument about anything, so what? There is no rapid population increase in Canada either. Canada's population is projected to grow at 0.71% for 2024, putting it at 125th in the world. One of the lowest. 2023 was one year when it grew by 3%, again nothing to write home about when the normal growth rates are between 0.1 to 3%. You are blowing things out of proportion.

Population growth rate Comparison - The World Factbook

www.cia.gov

0.71%? 3% this year. What is that in number of housing units?

My math and assumptions may be way off .. so I stand to be corrected.

39,000,000 x 0.03 = 1.17 million people divided by say 4 to a housing unit= 250,000 housing units a year if. you divide it across the entire country. But most immigrants tend to live in the areas where tehy have support networks, formal, familial or cultural. So that means the big cities.

There aren't enough sheets of plywood and nails in Canada to hammer together that many Rio de Janiero favela shanty towns a year.

I'm no social engineer, economist or societal growth expert but I feel that while the pecentages may seem small, a million people is a lot of fucking people! Especially in one year..

 

[JohnLarue]

I dont view immigration as high or low. Immigration is just immigration. I view it as a compromise position, where both supply and demand side pressures are addressed. There seems to be a narrative that only demand side pressures matter, which I disagree with.

you are disagreeing the facts of the matter and pretending the supply side can be addressed

real world issues are not solved by ignoring facts and pretending

the supply side can not address the issue
as the Desjardins economists pointed out .''it is not going to happen''
any uptick in housing starts is welcome but it is not going to increase by 152%
a 10 to 20% increase in housing starts would be impressive
152% >>>>>>> 'it is not going to happen''

there is no compromise position. it is physically impossible
in addition continuing to expand the population at an unsustainable pace will cause catastrophic strain on health care and transportation infrastructure

that leaves addressing the demand side to fix the affordability issue

again your solution to a flooded basement is to try and make the basement bigger while still leaving the taps running

the taps need to be turned off

you are not very bright

 

[SchlongConery]

Modular construction small homes. Elon musk lives in one of these

I've looked into the business of small homes on small lots. In local and more remote areas. And smarter, more resourceful people and groups have too.

Certainly we oversize our homes and building lots. That market demand is going tohave to evolve. And it will.

Where to build them is the limiting issue in terms of basic infrastructure like sewerage and water supply. And in cities like Toronto, transit, schools and health care. It becomes truly mind boggling.

We looked into some really nice land in the Kingston-Napanee area for this type of housing development. Very unusal problem was that the bedrock was so close to the surface that the cost of installing sewer lines was astronomical. We did a study on various alternatives with on-site holding tanks and either force main pumping or sucker-trucking on a monthly basis and delivering to the exisiting wastewater treatment plants. THe municipal and governments wanted NOTHING to do with it and the Provincial MoE had a hard NO response too.

It's a much more complex problem than it appears. It is solvable and doable, but it gets more and more expensive.

 

[JohnLarue]

It can be and should be. Stop misinterpreting the one economist who said it wasn't going to happen in 7 years, by copy pasting one phrase from an entire sentence. It does not have to happen in 7 years. It can take longer. But it needs to be fixed regardless.

it wont ever get fixed until the demand side pressure is reduced

you want to doom the 20 & 30 year old's to raising their families in their parents basement

you doubt the economist
name any mature industry that can be grown by 152% ?

it is not going to happen in 7 years, 10 years, 15 years or 20 years


"it is not going to happen''

It is because addressing the supply side is not possible tomorrow, I said, that a 2 pronged approach should be adopted with the focus being on the supply side for the longer term.

the demand side can be addressed with a stroke of a pen

you are not very bright

Stop misinterpreting the one economist who said it wasn't going to happen in 7 years

do not tell me what to do
there is no misinterpreting "it is not going to happen''


find a credible economist who thinks we can increase housing starts by 152%, 100% or even 50% and sustain that growth over a number of years ?

you are not very bright and/ or you are not being honest about your motivation here
you are so desperate to maintain permeant resident immigration you do not give a rats ass about the current population

 

[JohnLarue]

Rambling and copy pasting again.

you are not cluing in, despite the obvious being repeated for you many times

you refuse to answer questions put to you

find a credible economist who thinks we can increase housing starts by 152%, 100% or even 50% and sustain that growth over a number of years ?

answer the question

you are not very bright and/ or you are not being honest about your motivation here
you are so desperate to maintain permeant resident immigration you do not give a rats ass about the current population

 

[JohnLarue]

Oh now the 7 years is a "number of years" now. I already directly answered it. Yes, we cannot fix the supply side tomorrow. We cannot build 5.8M homes, or rather, 3.5M MORE homes than the projected 2.3M by 2030. Hence why I said in the short term, we need to tackle both demand side and supply side pressures.

7 years or 17 , it will not get fixed, until the demand pressure is reduced

The economist you quoted did not say, that it is NEVER possible for housing supply to catch up. He said it is not going to happen by 2030.

its never going to happen until the demand pressure is reduced

So you keep pulling the phrase "it is not going to happen", as if there is absolutely no way, for supply to catch up and there is absolutely NOTHING we can do. That is just bullshit.

what is bullshit is thinking Canada can magically increase housing starts on anywhere near the scale required

Short term, you have to tackle BOTH supply and demand side issues. Long term, you have to exclusively focus on ramping up supply. But you do need, to tackle supply. You absolutely do because it is infact the root cause.

no , we slam on the immigration brakes until the issue gets fixed
any uptick in supply will be welcome, but lets be realistic about expectations
We cannot build 3.5M MORE homes than the projected 2.3M by 2030 or 2040

No I don't. I dont get paid for every new PR. We need PRs .

i do not care what you get paid for
we have too many people without homes, we do not need PRs

and I find your solutions misguided

you would find gravity misguided if it interfered with your agenda

you are unable to accept straightforward logic

You are not being honest about your motivation here

too many lilly white folks in Canada for you

 

[TomFord1980]

Unfortunately for the Canada, limiting immigration will choke the Canadian economy as there is a dire labour shortage which immigration backstops. Immigration and housing are not mutually exclusive, both must happening simultaneously which the government has already “figured out” but has no solution for. The current opposition has no solution neither.
Immigrants continue to do jobs that Canadians either cannot or will not do which is and more visually apparent in major centres across Canada and becoming more and more in smaller regional centres.
Can Canada “ wait until things are figured out” to limit immigration. The answer is obviously, no.
In 2023, immigrants brought in 22 billion dollars to Canada and did in the neighbourhood of 300, 000 jobs that Canadians either cannot or will not do, many primarily from India.
The Canada - India economic patch solution is something that the US, Western Europe, Japan and other nations with decreasing workforces have failed to do.

I smell bullshit. Youve drank the kool aid. Immigration is a cancer that simply divides us into tribes. Think brown people in Brampton. Think the Chinese in Markham. Immigration keeps wages down for corporations who lobby the government as immigrants will generally work for lower wages to "make ends meet" since they dont generally have generational wealth to fall back on.

 

[JohnLarue]

We slam the immigration brakes until it gets fixed? You just said it will NEVER get fixed. So you mean slam the immigration brakes forever and bankrupt Canada?

do not misquote me
it will NEVER get fixed without reducing the demand pressure

So nice try.

do not misquote me

No. It WILL get fixed and it CAN get fixed on the supply side.

that is not going to happen

You have absolutely no analysis or data, to say that it will NEVER get fixed. No economist, analyst has said it either. It is something you pulled out of your ass.

ask anyone who understands economics and constraints
can Canada increase housing starts by 152% and sustain that pace for 7 , 10, 15 years ? No
can Canada increase housing starts by 100% and sustain that pace for 7 , 10, 15 years ? No
can Canada increase housing starts by 50% and sustain that pace for 7 , 10, 15 years ? No
can Canada increase housing starts by 30% and sustain that pace for 7 , 10, 15 years ? No
can Canada increase housing starts by 15% and sustain that pace for 7 , 10, 15 years ?Maybe and trying to increase that pace likely will cause incremental inflation

Not being able to really defend your position, your silly and childish accusation is that I am wanting immigration because I want LESS white people in the country. LOL. Aka, the great white replacement theory. LOL. Yeah, bud, I get paid everytime someone comes across the border.

its the only logical conclusion why you have taken such an indefensible position
whether you get paid or not is irrelevant

So you have now proved that you were not being honest with your motivations and projecting. So housing is just a crutch for you, not that you care about it. Your agenda is different.

no i have been clear and very logical
have in demand skills and a job offer in hand : Welcome to Canada

This is why you keep claiming that supply cannot be fixed, because if you accept that it can, then your "demand pressures" argument wont have any legs to stand on

.

No, i can not accept a completely illogical premise that Canada can increase housing starts by 152% and sustain that pace
it is beyond stupid and its not going to happen

Further, saying pump the , while saying that it will NEVER get fixed, is duplicitous.

do not misquote me
i said slam on the immigration brakes until it gets fixed
the housing shortage will never get fixed without addressing the unsustainable demand pressures

how's the taps open basement renovation working for you ?
what a fool

You just ended up exposing yourself. I predicted this in my very FIRST post on this thread, because you guys are entirely predictable.

I exposed myself by pointing out your hidden agenda ??
i do not think so