Just curious, will you switch into something else or just stay on the sidelines ? What main metric will you use as your strategy selling point ? 2x or 3x your capital ? Bitcoin dominance waning ?
I will go bythe historical pattern. Exactly one year after the halving, in all three previous cycles, Bitcoin reached a new high. From then, after six months, in two of the cycles Bitcoin went down or stayed roughly the same, with lots of volatility. In one cycle, it went up. After the one year mark, the risk/reward isn't there anymore. Tremendous volatility and not much to gain, with massive drops.
It's impossible to tell when Bitcoin will peak and what the final price is. However, after doubling from here, the returns you get become more diminished for the risk. For example, even if Bitcoin were to go from $140,000 to $200,000, it would be less than a 50% gain. But the risk is tremendous that you will be left holding the bag, as the drops can be sudden, steep, and final.
It's far better to wait until one year after Bitcoin peaks (one year from November 2025). That will be when Bitcoin will near the botttom. If you can buy Bitcoin at say $70,000 at that point, then there is much less risk that you will lose anything in the next few years, and you can easily 2-3x your money until the next halving. And from then, you can double to triple your money. So you can probably 6-10X your money if buy at the bottom and sell three years later at the next bull run, with far less risk.
I will take my winnings and invest in several stocks and ETFS (SPX, QQQ, BRK.B, Paypal, Netflix, etc.)
When Bitcoin bottoms in winter 2026, I will buy bitcoin by dollar cost averaging.
If we do hit $140,000 way before the one year mark after the halving, I'll probably keep 20% of my funds in bitcoin to let it ride out.