Who Could Have Seen This Coming? All Over America, Blue Cities Are Facing A Severe Shortage Of Police Officers

[Not getting younger]

Interesting take! Have the source for the dispatcher issue?

I can’t find data similar to what can been seen for the CPD ( 12,000) and MTPS (7,500) with approximately the same population. Buried in those numbers, are all kinds of roles. Some likely dispatch. Oakland is about 800-900.

Did find this though. As for why? Likely not hard to guess. Purse strings, politics, squeaky wheels, public sentiment and a job few are willing to do and attrition.

Police officers are increasingly leaving Oakland. How can the city retain them, and diversify?

Just 10% of Oakland officers live in Oakland. New data sheds light on staffing progress and challenges.

oaklandside.org

 

[y2kmark]

Hey just throw some social workers into problem areas. All will be fine,lol.

Olivia Chow will decimate the TPS in due fashion. It's in her mission statement.

Portland here we come....

It wouldn't be that far fetched if it weren't for all the GUNS, pal!!!

 

[Frankfooter]

“Right” Franky, if you say so. I gave you three separate definitions, and the quote in question. Figure it out. Context and comprehension way above you.

As you just said, in your own words. There might be sub groups, within a society, that for this reason or that, you want to isolate or highlight. Don't think much do you…

Maybe it’s you that should have been clearer, either with your nonsensical and illogical GC comment ( if something if almost non existent how do you rip it up) …The US has never really had GC. In order for something to be torn to shreds it has to exist in the first place….Doh! Please point to the era, they tore what little GC they have to shreds………

Here’s another definition for you. Logical fallacy
“A fallacy, also known as paralogia in modern psychology, is the use of invalid or otherwise faulty reasoning in the construction of an argument that may appear to be well-reasoned if unnoticed.”



Or your purported question..
I’ll stick with “all the above”

Society is a general group when you were talking about a specific subset.

Let’s see if I can nudge this back towards the topic.

All numbers/comments hereafter approximate generalized lest someone try to find a wee bone to gnaw on.

The MTPS (city population 2.9 million)


The CPD Chicago (city population 2.6 million)


Gun controls. Arguably similar
Hmmmmmmm

We can make the observation that in Canada we pour $$$ into certain things that they don’t. We can also make the observation despite similar populations and say revenue streams. One doesn’t get nearly the same funding for those on the front lines.

And lastly, while dated (2012) violent crime has gotten worse since 2014. How do we compare against some US cities?

Crime rates in the largest U.S. cities: how does Toronto compare? | Globalnews.ca

How does Toronto's violent crime rate compare to the top 10 largest cities in the United States?

globalnews.ca

trump wants to make it legal to shoot shoplifters.
That's the right wing solution.

 

[Not getting younger]

It wouldn't be that far fetched if it weren't for all the GUNS, pal!!!

Would it be fair to say we have SWers, and more access? Have poured way more $ into such things. There’s only one answer to that.

Again not to “prove or disprove”…
Violent crime stats per capita…against comparable cities not in our favour.

Crime continued to rise in Canada in 2022, new Statistics Canada data show, with the severity of violent crime reaching its highest point since 2007, and murders reaching their highest rate in 30 years

Violent crime keeps rising; murder rate highest in 30 years: StatCan

Canada had 874 homicides last year, a fourth consecutive rise year on year

nationalpost.com

Annual government surveys from the Bureau of Justice Statistics show no recent increase in the U.S. violent crime rate. In 2021, the most recent year with available data, there were 16.5 violent crimes for every 1,000 Americans ages 12 and older. That was statistically unchanged from the year before, below pre-pandemic levels and far below the rates recorded in the 1990s, according to the National

Violent crime is a key midterm voting issue, but what does the data say?

With Election Day approaching, here’s a closer look at voter attitudes on violent crime and an analysis of the nation’s violent crime rate.

www.pewresearch.org

Can’t say the same for the GTA, nor Canada. Can we. Nope…That despite all kind of $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ into such things and much stricter gun control ( though thankfully are murder rate much lower)

Is it possible our historically soft on crime, ( by comparison) recent changes to mandatory minimums, bail. Smaller police force compared to Chicago, Plus some socioeconomic stuff. Like the fastest growing city in NA ( can’t say police have), being packed in like Sardines…exploding housing cost jobs losses all around…etc
Nah not possible.

 

[Valcazar]

Interesting take! Have the source for the dispatcher issue?

They are spending money on it.

Oakland leaders say 911 system fixes are coming

Mayor Sheng Thao announced several measures to improve the city’s 911 system, including a $2.5 million investment. But more than anything, the city needs people to answer the phones.

oaklandside.org

OPD’s 911 center, which receives over half a million calls each year, currently has 62 dispatchers and 16 vacancies, according to a city press release. Earlier this summer, a power outage briefly disrupted the 911 system. An Oakland audit and Alameda County grand jury report found that 911 calls in Oakland aren’t being answered fast enough. The stakes are high to show improvement: The state recently threatened to withhold funding from OPD if the department can’t improve its response time.


Hiring more dispatchers is a critical part of the city’s strategy. Oakland has interviewed 79 dispatcher candidates since July and 50 have been referred for background checks, a necessary step before hiring.

Problem with these delays seems to be several years old.

‘I don't dial 911 anymore': Oakland's worsening 911 crisis

If you call 911 in Oakland today, chances are you will be on hold for about a minute before being able to describe your emergency to a live dispatcher.

www.nbcbayarea.com

But Oakland’s 911 calling crisis has remained one of the worst in the state for years, including before the pandemic; and it’s worsened. In 2018, the city’s average answering time was 45.92 seconds. That was already more than triple California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services’ mandated standards of 15 seconds.

 

[Valcazar]

laugh all you like Valcazar.
I love it when that’s all someone has in rbuttal

The idea that cops don't complain, aren't political, and their unions aren't vicious power players in political infighting in most major cities in the US and Canada is just insane.
That you don't seem to know this is... kind of shocking, actually.
Your implication that they never complain unlike, you know, those people, is just ridiculous.

Are you just being obtuse and delusional. I have no doubt you can find chiefs talking about funding. No doubt, the bigger issue, thought obviously, went right past you. Who controls the purse strings…….and who do they bow to.

The cops have HUGE power over purse strings due to the political pressure they can apply.
Why do you think Cops are one of, if not the most well funded parts of any city?

(see above plus links to MTPS/CPD numbers) plus there’s the fact no matter how it’s sliced or diced, violent crime per capita here, is higher than many US cities. That despite we do pour money into things, they don’t. Never mind some um, fairly significant recent changes.

It's almost like just blindly spending money on police is not a panacea.
Imagine that.

 

[Not getting younger]

The idea that cops don't complain, aren't political, and their unions aren't vicious power players in political infighting in most major cities in the US and Canada is just insane.
That you don't seem to know this is... kind of shocking, actually.
Your implication that they never complain unlike, you know, those people, is just ridiculous.



The cops have HUGE power over purse strings due to the political pressure they can apply.
Why do you think Cops are one of, if not the most well funded parts of any city?



It's almost like just blindly spending money on police is not a panacea.
Imagine that.

Really, please point to
A political rally
A strike or job action
Bellyaching in the press by their unions or anything of that sort. Obviously the references to teachers/nurses and their complaints, a lot….in the press…was lost on you.

And if it were so common as you say. No doubt you’d have already added links to things.

lastly define well funded Valcazar. The MTPS is roughly 60% the size of the Chicago PD, despite near identical populations..and we all know, how much the GTAs population has exploded, in the last 5-10 years…Or have you not been reading, paying attention the past X years to house/rent prices and more. Not suggesting they should be the same, but that’s a huge difference.

Have you not noticed violent crime per capita, is higher in the GTA than comparable US cities…

Have you not noticed the very noticeable upward trend in violent crime the past 10 years. In the GTA and across the country…

well funded huh?
Jeez, and here I am, thinking we are all about data these days. Or do you only use data when it suits you?

Would you like me to find and link a few dozen articles of chiefs complaining about gang and guns and deaf ears from politicians and the public. So much political power…how about articles of chiefs saying gun bans are useless and a waste of time/resources…..If you say so..

 

[Frankfooter]

As with most things, it’s rarely any one thing.
-Around then Wynne changed some funding away from gangs and guns. Shit happens when you spend Willy nilly and are up to your eyeballs in debt.

-Around then, and prior to lots of places in Ontario were hit hefty job losses and that old socioeconomic stuff that many say is so an important part of the equation. But turned blind eyes to.

-Around then ( 2012) the price for housing started to explode. Some or many criminologists will also point at population density. Makes sense, the tighter humans are packed in like sardines….

-Shortly after minimum sentences for numerous violent crimes were done away with.

Mandatory Sentences for Firearm Offences - The impact of mandatory minimum sentences (continued) - Mandatory Minimum Penalties: Their Effects on Crime, Sentencing Disparities, and Justice System Expenditures

This report aims to assess the effects of mandatory minimum sentences (MMS) through a review of relevant social science and legal literature. It focuses on the utilitarian, as opposed to the retributive or denunciatory aims of MMS.

www.justice.gc.ca

-Shortly after bail conditions were relaxed

Overview of Bill C-75 - Legislative Background: An Act to amend the Criminal Code, the Youth Criminal Justice Act and other Acts and to make consequential amendments to other Acts, as enacted (Bill C-75 in the 42nd Parliament)

Legislative Background: An Act to amend the Criminal Code, the Youth Criminal Justice Act and other Acts and to make consequential amendments to other Acts, as enacted (Bill C-75 in the 42nd Parliament)

www.justice.gc.ca

-Shortly after the cities population really exploded. Did front line troops?

I’m fairly sure there’s more to it, but……

odd that, our violent crime rates per capita is actually worse than many US cities.

We went through these stats before and the numbers you posted show that crime is way less in larger cities than in the small towns and rural settings you prefer.
There are more gun crimes but even so, less violent crimes in general.

Gang violence in Canadian cities is pretty minor compared to the crime rates in smaller towns.

 

[Frankfooter]

Have you not noticed violent crime per capita, is higher than comparable US cities…

I don't think this is true or that you can find legit stats to back up this argument.

 

[Not getting younger]

Here is some data for you Valcazar

Toronto police budget 2012

The deal sees the force cut 4.6 per cent from its 2012 budget, according to the Toronto Police Services Board, bringing total spending to $936.3 million. Blair raised concerns after he asked for a budget of $944.7 million -- a 1.5 per cent jump from the 2011.

Toronto police budget debated at city hall

Toronto's Budget Committee spent Friday pouring over next year's operating budget which features property tax increases, staff reductions and service cutbacks.

toronto.ctvnews.ca

.

Toronto police budget 2023

The hike in police funding represents a 4.3 per cent increase over the 2022 budget(opens in a new tab), and brings TPS' total 2023 operating budget to $1.16B(opens in a new tab).Feb 16, 2023

Toronto police granted $48.3M funding increase with no amendments

Toronto City Council passed the 2023 municipal budget Wednesday night and along with it, a $48.3M increase to the Toronto Police Service’s (TPS) funding.

beta.ctvnews.ca

I’ll even do some difficult math for you. That represents 20% increase over 11 years. An average of slightly less than 2%per year, . Given inflation of about 2%/annum which is much higher the past few, that barely covers salaries, new hires, never mind equipment like cars, gas, computers, guns, uniforms, and soooooo much more( also subject to inflation) and more…

From 2006 to 2016 Toronto grew 9% ( roughly 2%/year)

From 2016 to 2023 Toronto grew roughly 13% ( an increase of 4%..per year…thats huge)
And is expected to grow at that rate to 2030

The budget, has barely treaded water since 2012…and it’s 2012 strength/operating expenses, never mind the population increase, increase in violent rates, could also bring in more of the public dealing with mental health afflictions, anxiety over bills, the economy, being packed in like Sardines, Covid, increases in homelessness, traffic accidents, opioid use and over doses and more…

Well funded huh? So much political power huh? If they did, you the public would be screaming…crying about how tough it is to be a cop, little differently than you do when certain other unions flex their political might, to put pressure on those that control strings and from your support/sympathy…..In fact, it’s almost the opposite. Your apparent attitude towards policing speaks volumes. Much of the public is the same.

Never mind catching up to, putting a dent in crime/capita, or a very very noticeable upward trend in violent crime rates since 2014. Despite pouring money into things the US doesn’t ( and no increases) and strict gun control.

 

[mandrill]

Bottom line. dance around it however you like.
violent crime per capita per the stats attached, are higher than many US cities. And it’s getting worse since around 2014.

That despite pouring way more money into socioeconomic issues ( not suggesting they aren’t important) and from what we will likely be able to discern, nowhere near the same law and order. Though we can maybe use Chicago as a comparable.

Please supply sources and figures. Your claim doesn't appear plausible.

 

[mandrill]

Here is some data for you Valcazar

Toronto police budget 2012

Toronto police budget debated at city hall

Toronto's Budget Committee spent Friday pouring over next year's operating budget which features property tax increases, staff reductions and service cutbacks.

toronto.ctvnews.ca

.

Toronto police budget 2023

Toronto police granted $48.3M funding increase with no amendments

Toronto City Council passed the 2023 municipal budget Wednesday night and along with it, a $48.3M increase to the Toronto Police Service’s (TPS) funding.

beta.ctvnews.ca

I’ll even do some difficult math for you. That represents 20% increase over 11 years. An average of slightly less than 2%per year, . Given inflation of about 2%/annum which is much higher the past few, that barely covers salaries, new hires, never mind equipment like cars, gas, computers, guns, uniforms, and soooooo much more( also subject to inflation) and more…

From 2006 to 2016 Toronto grew 9% ( roughly 2%/year)

From 2016 to 2023 Toronto grew roughly 13% ( an increase of 4%..per year…thats huge)
And is expected to grow at that rate to 2030

The budget, has barely treaded water since 2012…and it’s 2012 strength/operating expenses, never mind the population increase, increase in violent rates, could also bring in more of the public dealing with mental health afflictions, anxiety over bills, the economy, being packed in like Sardines, Covid, increases in homelessness, traffic accidents, opioid use and over doses and more…

Well funded huh? So much political power huh? If they did, you the public would be screaming…crying about how tough it is to be a cop, little differently than you do when certain other unions flex their political might, to put pressure on those that control strings and from your support/sympathy…..In fact, it’s almost the opposite. Your apparent attitude towards policing speaks volumes. Much of the public is the same.

Never mind catching up to, putting a dent in crime/capita, or a very very noticeable upward trend in violent crime rates since 2014. Despite pouring money into things the US doesn’t ( and no increases) and strict gun control.

Only if you draw a straight line between police funding and crime stats.

 

[mandrill]

I can’t find data similar to what can been seen for the CPD ( 12,000) and MTPS (7,500) with approximately the same population. Buried in those numbers, are all kinds of roles. Some likely dispatch. Oakland is about 800-900.

Did find this though. As for why? Likely not hard to guess. Purse strings, politics, squeaky wheels, public sentiment and a job few are willing to do and attrition.

Police officers are increasingly leaving Oakland. How can the city retain them, and diversify?

Just 10% of Oakland officers live in Oakland. New data sheds light on staffing progress and challenges.

oaklandside.org

So here are some stats.

Crime rates in the largest U.S. cities: how does Toronto compare? | Globalnews.ca

How does Toronto's violent crime rate compare to the top 10 largest cities in the United States?

globalnews.ca

At first glance, it appears that Toronto's violent crime rate is higher than New York's, but that is misleading as the US stats are based only on homicides and very serious physical and sexual assaults, whereas Canadian stats cover minor crimes like "harassing phone calls" as well.


Violent crime is defined by StatsCan as: homicide, violations causing death, attempted murder, sexual assault, sexual violations against children, assault, pointing or discharge of firearms, robbery, forcible confinement or kidnapping, abduction, extortion, criminal harassment, uttering threats, harassing phone calls, violent violations.

The American data above is from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) Uniform Crime Report 2010.

In the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program, violent crime is composed of four offenses: murder and non-negligent manslaughter, forcible rape, robbery, and aggravated assault. Violent crimes are defined in the UCR Program as those offenses which involve force or threat of force.

So is appears that Toronto crime is massively smaller than American large city crime.

Crime in Toronto - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Not getting younger]

Only if you draw a straight line between police funding and crime stats.

Mandrill, we ( all ) could look at, or point at. This that and the other. What would crime look like if there was zero law enforcement. There is no arguing, that there are correlations. between policing, police presence, and crime.

Are you a big believer in a ton of happy coincidence. Be that a budget that hasn’t changed an iota, in 10 years vs the cities population. Be that very obvious increases in certain things, be that the prevalence of gangs, or opioid use ( a crises many call the Fentanyl problem) and is killing 7,000/year…our violent crime rate going up, while the US isn’t seeing that, and unlike the US, while there is room for improvement we pour a ton of money into stuff they don’t….…or the same but when looked at on a per capita basis.

We can also look at coincidentally timed removal of mandatory minimums for numerous firearms offences ,and other violent offences. Then the coincidence of relaxing bail….all around 2016.

At the end of the day, irrespective of all that. The cities population has exploded ( not even mentioning the socioeconomic stuff that’s come with that) . Has the budget? Nope. It’s not even holding ground to inflation. Though last year was close at 4.4%

 

[Not getting younger]

“At first glance, it appears that Toronto's violent crime rate is higher than New York's, but that is misleading as the US stats are based only on homicides and very serious physical and sexual assaults, whereas Canadian stats cover minor crimes like "harassing phone calls" as we”

While each countries components and definitions of violent crime ( including what constitutes a crime gun here ). It’s largely irreverent. What they deem violent crime, is flat. What we deem violent crime is on a very noticeable upward trend, since 2014…

For the record
e data presented in Crime in the United States reflect the Hierarchy Rule, which requires that only the most serious offense in a multiple-offense criminal incident be counted. The descending order of UCR violent crimes are murder and nonnegligent manslaughter, forcible rape, robbery, and aggravated assault, followed by the property crimes of burglary, larceny-theft, and motor vehicle theft. Although arson is also a property crime, the Hierarchy Rule does not apply to the offense of arson. In cases in which an arson occurs in conjunction with another violent or property crime, both crimes are reported, the arson and the additional crime.

 

[Darts]

We'll see where bail reform takes us.

"Justice Minister David Lametti is considering reforming Canada's bail laws in response to a request from provincial premiers123. The premiers called for immediate action to prevent accused people who are out on bail from committing further criminal acts2. Lametti has already talked with some provincial counterparts about the issue and is prepared to make changes to the Criminal Code13. The reforms will aim to address the challenges posed by repeat violent offenders and those facing firearms or other weapons charges45. Bail is a constitutional right, but it is not absolute, and can be denied where there is just cause or when it is necessary for the safety of the public or to maintain the public's confidence in the administration of justice4"

 

[Valcazar]

Really, please point to
A political rally
A strike or job action
Bellyaching in the press by their unions or anything of that sort. Obviously the references to teachers/nurses and their complaints, a lot….in the press…was lost on you.

Cops can't strike legally.
But sure. The Blue-flu and Depolicing don't exist.
Why not.

And let's not get into things like the police riot in new york back in the 90s.

And sorry, but you were complaining about bellyaching and complaining, so those count too.

lastly define well funded Valcazar. The MTPS is roughly 60% the size of the Chicago PD, despite near identical populations..and we all know, how much the GTAs population has exploded, in the last 5-10 years…Or have you not been reading, paying attention the past X years to house/rent prices and more. Not suggesting they should be the same, but that’s a huge difference.

And both may well be over funded, given how bad they do their jobs.
Given how bad the CPD is, why would you use that as your benchmark for a properly funded police service?

Have you not noticed violent crime per capita, is higher in the GTA than comparable US cities…

Have you not noticed the very noticeable upward trend in violent crime the past 10 years. In the GTA and across the country…[/QUOTE]

Absolutely.
Both countries are having that, the GTA has been particularly bad.
What does that have to do with whether or not the MTPS is well funded?

You yourself pointed out that pretending that one factor, like "spending on cops" is determining crime rates is silly and reductive.

No one has adequately explained the nation-wide rise and fall of crime in both Canada and the US from 1970s-the 2010s, but we know it doesn't track police budgets.

well funded huh?
Jeez, and here I am, thinking we are all about data these days. Or do you only use data when it suits you?

Data is always useful.
But "We fund less than the CPD therefore we aren't well funded" is an opinion based on data, not data.

Would you like me to find and link a few dozen articles of chiefs complaining about gang and guns and deaf ears from politicians and the public. So much political power…how about articles of chiefs saying gun bans are useless and a waste of time/resources…..If you say so..

Oh good.
You agree that police chiefs are vocal about their complaints, argue for budgets and policies they prefer, and are active in trying to influence the politics of the city to their preferences.

Cool.

 

[Valcazar]

Here is some data for you Valcazar

Cool. Thanks.

The budget, has barely treaded water since 2012…and it’s 2012 strength/operating expenses, never mind the population increase, increase in violent rates, could also bring in more of the public dealing with mental health afflictions, anxiety over bills, the economy, being packed in like Sardines, Covid, increases in homelessness, traffic accidents, opioid use and over doses and more…

But your whole point assumes it was properly funded at the correct level in 2012.

Well funded huh? So much political power huh? If they did, you the public would be screaming…crying about how tough it is to be a cop, little differently than you do when certain other unions flex their political might, to put pressure on those that control strings and from your support/sympathy…..In fact, it’s almost the opposite. Your apparent attitude towards policing speaks volumes. Much of the public is the same.

That you think the cops have generated so much bad PR for themselves that they no longer have public sympathy is a sign of their declining power, but considering they are still the largest expense in the city almost every year speaks otherwise as to their actual political power.

 

[Valcazar]

So here are some stats.

Crime rates in the largest U.S. cities: how does Toronto compare? | Globalnews.ca

How does Toronto's violent crime rate compare to the top 10 largest cities in the United States?

globalnews.ca

At first glance, it appears that Toronto's violent crime rate is higher than New York's, but that is misleading as the US stats are based only on homicides and very serious physical and sexual assaults, whereas Canadian stats cover minor crimes like "harassing phone calls" as well.


Violent crime is defined by StatsCan as: homicide, violations causing death, attempted murder, sexual assault, sexual violations against children, assault, pointing or discharge of firearms, robbery, forcible confinement or kidnapping, abduction, extortion, criminal harassment, uttering threats, harassing phone calls, violent violations.

The American data above is from the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) Uniform Crime Report 2010.

In the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program, violent crime is composed of four offenses: murder and non-negligent manslaughter, forcible rape, robbery, and aggravated assault. Violent crimes are defined in the UCR Program as those offenses which involve force or threat of force.

So is appears that Toronto crime is massively smaller than American large city crime.

Crime in Toronto - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

What would be nice is a breakdown in comparable stats, then.

Homicide Rate in Toronto vs Chicago, LA, New York (for example)
Arson Rate
Assault?

The trend going up since ~2014/15 or so in each city would be interesting as well, of course.

(Mind you, since both of these are police-reported stats if I recall, that means you are subject to the differences in how different departments report data - which is a problem even comparing city to city, if I recall from last time I looked at crime stats.)

 

[Not getting younger]

Nope they can’t strike. Some might call that being toothless. There are actions that might be taken, though care has to be exercised. Typically work to rule and nothing gets done.

“And sorry, but you were complaining about bellyaching and complaining, so those count too”

Assuming I agree with that which I don’t. I was/am pointing they don’t take issues to the press for your sympathy. Which is what will put pressure on those who control purse strings.

“But "We fund less than the CPD therefore we aren't well funded" is an opinion based on data, not data”

No it’s called comparing and contrasting. It’s used all the time by statisticians and more. Let’s call that analytics.

For example comparing police unions to other unions…who air their dirty laundry, cry the blues, for your support…that is what politicians “listen” to.

“You agree that police chiefs are vocal about their complaints, argue for budgets and policies they prefer, and are active in trying to influence the politics of the city to their preferences.”

Huge difference. And the proof is in the pudding.