That's the basis for our difference of opinion. I don't think someone like Gavin Newsom would be crushed by Biden in a primary battle. I also suspect he has donors queued up if and when the moment is right. If Biden wasn't displaying weakness, this would not even be a topic on social media. I don't remember anyone ever discussing a primary challenge to Obama or Trump.
Sure they did.
There even
was a Primary challenge to Trump. Bill Weld and Joe Walsh both ran. (It didn't go anywhere, because the base didn't want it. The GOP also canceled a bunch of primaries in various states, but there was no chance for those guys anyway.) People were calling for someone to challenge him all through 2019. (Throwing around names like Bush or Kacich or Weld or Walsh.)
There were a handful of primary challengers to Obama, but none of real note. Far fewer calls for him to be primaried. (Sanders talked about it but didn't do it.)
Are the calls louder here? Yeah.
I'd say they are getting closer to Bush Sr level.
Buchanan did well enough there and then got stomped.
Again - the problem is that Biden isn't nearly weak enough that he is going to feel pressure to step aside on his own, and no one is strong enough that they can step up and have people coalesce around them.
Will either change by the end of the year?
I doubt it.
That's why I cited the political science academian regarding do primary challenges make an incumbent weak. I agree with him. Essentially, a credible primary challenge is not the cause of an incumbent's reelection loss, but rather the effect of an already weak incumbent prior to the primaries.
The Dems have set-up their own Catch-22. If no one runs against Biden, he is strong. Therefore, since no one is running against Biden that proves he is strong. We won't know if that thinking is correct until everything plays out.
They didn't set that up.
That has ALWAYS been the set up.
It is the single biggest problem about trying to decide when or if to mount a primary challenge that isn't just a vanity campaign or a fund raising exercise.
(People also sometimes run one just to get a single issue or two on the table they think the party needs to hash out. Those people can run whether or not they think the incumbent is weak, because their point isn't to beat him.)
But the point stands...
The Party
has no leverage to make him stand down.
They can appeal to reason, but if he disagrees, they can't do anything about it.