The problem is that as long as Russia feels its only option is to control Ukraine, a settlement is difficult.No Ukraine will never be a member of NATO. I just dont see that happening. The only way this war stops is if there are guarantees that Ukraine wont join NATO. Your point about Ukraine wanting guarantees is reasonable, but I a not sure what the solution is. Russia will never agree to NATO. Outside of NATO I dont know what other options exist.
If Russia wins completely, then it isn't an issue. They either annex the country or set up a true puppet regime.
Russia probably would accept a set up where Ukraine is more or less independent, but Russia has a veto over it's foreign policy.
At this point, though, that would be very hard to get Ukraine to accept.
Any version in which there is any part of Ukraine that can claim independence is going to require a security guarantee unless Ukraine gives up completely.
It is just too existentially dangerous for Ukraine to agree to anything that doesn't give them some hope of deterring Russia the next time Russia decides military force is the solution.
Russia accepts NATO membership only if it thinks it has no way to stop it - then maybe it takes some land for it.
Russia agreeing to any other security guarantee that has teeth is pretty much the same thing.
So long as this regime thinks Ukraine having the ability to resist it or to be the "danger of a good example" it will not want to accept any agreement that doesn't let it invade or interfere with Ukraine again whenever it feels it is necessary.
The very clip you posted has Chomsky saying he doesn't think Russia will allow Ukraine to join the EU.Why is that a disagreement with Chomsky? I dont think Russia is blocking Ukraine form joining EU or it is even part of Russia's agenda. NATO yes. EU no. Or are you conflating EU and NATO?
They aren't in that.
Here are the Russian demands. Where in that are they saying anything about EU?
They invaded in 2014 over it, though. And said repeatedly that they oppose it. And that was just "move closer to the orbit and maybe qualify for membership in 2030 or even later".
Yes, last year, when the war started to go badly they just said they don't care about it but would have to review all the security implications, but that is nice and vague.
Russia does not want Ukraine joining the EU.