I doubt it. Russia will have total air conyrol over the region, and Nato will likely not interfere. Ukraine has no good options.
WAR IMMINENT:Russian commanders given instructions to attack Ukraine
- Thread starter stinkynuts
- Start date
If Ukraine does that, I predict Kiev will fall within 4 days. Not a good option.
PS: I can as well be a military analyst as the other ones here. L O L.
Putin will not commit to the open conflict- Russia cannot afford it. Well, technically they can, but not without the whole country coming to standstill and Putin suffering Czar's faith. Not attacking the disputed(really post Soviet Ukraine) areas GUARANTEE that Russia will keep using this tactics until all of Eastern AND even Central Ukraine will be gone. And the instability will keep Ukraine poor, outside of the common market and beyond international cooperation. If Biden dies tomorrow, what happens to the American support?
Why would Russia want more of Ukraine than the ethnic Russian self proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Lugansk?
Surely Russia has enough land ( I once rode the trans Siberian rail) and why would they want the 35M Ukrainians who hate Russia?
I know superpowers like to invade other countries, just because they can, but taking control of all of Ukraine will doom Russia and Putin.
Because everything beyond the 1939 border is Russia. This way, and it's ingenious, Putin gets to reclaim the Ukraine on the cheap, without humanitarian problems and,by doing it piecemeal, ensuring that the Ukrainian malcontents keep retreating west.
Why would Putin resort to open conflict? It is wasteful, expensive. He is achieving everything he needs just by positioning Russian forces in an aggressive stance. Ukraine is collapsing economically and the Western leaders are flapping the wings and making impotent threats. There are still many Russian speaking pockets in Ukraine that are being oppressed and this may embolden them if Ukraine continues with their cultural genocide. If it moves against them, Russia may act forcefully.
Is this what you are referring to? And would not a large part of Ukrainians hate Russians?
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Pretty much.Is this what you are referring to? And would not a large part of Ukrainians hate Russians?
I agree that the Donbass regions were sustained purely by Russia and are puppet states. There are a couple of others in other neighbouring countries that Moscow keeps afloat. The majority of people in those regions are Russophone and Russian in political views and loyalty. As with Crimea, it was always unrealistic to expect them to align with a Ukraine that was not also aligned and subservient to Moscow. So when Kiev aligned west in 2014, those regions broke away. Ukraine was not strong enough to stop them doing so, as the Russian army (unofficially) intervened and kicked the Ukrainian forces' ass.
Pro Putin factions in other Ukrainian regions attempted to break away in 2014 and to dissolve the country, leaving at best a rump around Kiev and Lviv. In particular, there was rioting in Odessa and somewhat fainter rumblings in Kharkov. The pro Russian rioters and street gangs in Odessa were decisively beaten by their pro Uke counterparts and there was a notorious incident wherein some pro Russians were trapped and burned in a government building. Moscow did NOT use this as a cover to escalate their covert war against Kiev. And everything then subsided into a defacto Cold War.
There is no imminent probability of other Ukrainian regions seceding to join Moscow. They would already have done so. Putin pays Ukrainian politicians to pose as pro Moscow. He also pays British, French, German and American politicians to suck his cock as well. It's a standard Putin move. But this does not entail that large chunks of Ukraine are going to simply join Russia. Western Ukraine is economically quite prosperous. And many Ukrainians have heritage animosity to Russia or simply don't like the Putin system and the man himself.
It's not as though Donbass style "independence" is inherently attractive. Ukraine is majorly fucked up, but Russia is fucked up a million times worse and then some. Kharkov has no incentive to become "Kharkov, Russia" as opposed to "Kharkov, Ukraine".
Ukraine is not going to attack Russia over Donetsk and Luhansk. Why tf would it?! The attack would be suicidal and it would also be pointless. Donbass has not been part of Ukraine for 7 years. Functionally, it was always at odds with much of the rest of the country. And it adds little economic value, as it has a rust belt vintage, coal-based economy.
In fact, Putin's official recognition of the 2 enclaves is a big, fat nothing in real terms.
You could do way better than just cut-n-pasting the rightie press and posting it on TERB.
No, it's a game of chicken and this is just the next fake bluff.Update: Putin has just ordered his troops to occupy the separatist regions of Ukraine. War will begin.
February 21, 2022 Ukraine-Russia news
Tensions between Moscow and Kyiv are at their highest in years, with a large Russian troop buildup near the shared borders of the two former Soviet republics. Follow here for the latest news updates.www.cnn.com
If Putin wanted Ukraine, he'd send tank columns into Kharkov and down the Dnepr into Kiev. It would be over in a couple of days and then the West would sanction the fuck out of Russia and NATO would start to seriously re arm for WW3.
Mr. Expert, if Putin had sent his forces in an all out attack into Ukraine, he'd be dead within a year.
So if he has no intention to invade, why do this big show? He has just weakened his standing with the West and made himself a pariah.
He loses a lot for nothing it seems
He loses a lot for nothing it seems
Why?
Likely this will be as far is it goes.
Vlad gets what he wants, there is no easy response so nothing will happen.
No war, gas prices stay the same.
NATO won't really care.
There will be some angry commentaries posted but that's about it.
