Doom and gloom predictions....

[Jenesis]

They stated it's a 2 day total. Anyone I've spoken to has been saying " OMG 3000 in one day", not "OMG 6000 in one day! "

The point is 3000 in a day is still breaking records. It's because they opened up to quickly and people once again started to believe it's safe to hang out more and more.

I blew up at an employee who actually walked into the office last week unmasked believing with the vaccines being administered it was over. He wasn't jabbed yet but thought it was safe now to let down his guard. He does it again he will be looking for a new job.

My dad thought 6k in the day. He is a headline reader since he can actually see the headlines without glasses.

I just don’t get why they have been reporting 3 day numbers all of sudden instead of 1 day totals like they have all year.

3k is a lot.

It appears your employee and my dad are both idiots. LOL. My dad would happily admit he is. It’s why I love him so. LOL.

 

[doggystyle99]

Why have the reports a lately been announcing 2 days with a records? Since April 2, I have seen numerous new reports of COVID cases at 6000. But then you have to read further to find out the numbers are combining two days totals.

Why is this being done like this all of sudden? Is it because they projected up to 10K cases a day in March and didn’t reach it so they said 6K by April and now that we have hit April, they need to report a 6K number to make them look ”right”. We all know that people read headlines mostly, then if they do read the article, it is not the whole article so people are seriously going to think we have 6K case. I had a convo with someone yesterday who thought it was 6K daily not a two day total

The virus is doubling in cases with new variants roughly every 11 days,
Reading beyond the article and using actual data would be quite helpful

Yesterday was the 2nd highest number of cases that was seen in Ontario ever with just under 4,500 cases, and 2nd highest number of cases in Canada ever just over 11,000 cases.
It's crazy to me that you are still going on about the projections and thinking they are trying to pass off these numbers as a way to sell the projections were right.
You fail to see the purpose and the way the projections were done, projections were based on lockdowns being lifted by a certain date with little to no measures being in place, again let me repeat that "lockdowns being lifted by a certain date with little to no measures in place".

The government should do everything they can to make sure we don't hit these projections. Unfortunately though even with the very easy to follow restrictions too many COVIDIOTS defying mask wearing, and social gathering guidelines, as it's just too hard for them to understand and too restrictive for their likes as they are selfish COVIDIOTS, they are cause of the number of cases going up.
16 months into a pandemic these important and known facts have to be explained again and again, and then people wonder why we are in the situation we are in. SMH
I see even more restrictions coming very soon.

 

[Jenesis]

The virus is doubling in cases with new variants roughly every 11 days,
Reading beyond the article and using actual data would be quite helpful

Yesterday was the 2nd highest number of cases that was seen in Ontario ever with just under 4,500 cases.

Where are you getting 4500 cases yesterday?

It was just over 3000. Can you provide a link?

Here is mine.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-covid-19-omnibus-april-3-1.5974789

 

[Valcazar]

The government should do everything they can to make sure we don't hit these projections.

This is something people have been getting wrong since the beginning. The projections are always subject to behavior changes. What this does, though, is make people think that by the worst case not happening it proves that there never was a problem in the first place.

 

[Jenesis]

This is something people have been getting wrong since the beginning. The projections are always subject to behavior changes. What this does, though, is make people think that by the worst case not happening it proves that there never was a problem in the first place.

See I don’t think I am quite doing that. I believe we can hit these numbers but I believe the media is using it to spread doom and gloom.

If you look at my OP, two things had to happen to reach these numbers.

1. Ford had to end the lockdowns and ease restrictions, going colour coded etc. He did that.

2. We needed to have VOCs. Which we do.

What these news outlets never do is tell you the bottom number of those predictions. They don’t tell you how that modelling comes about. They just push the fear factor. Which is what doesn’t help anyone.

Now they are mashing two days totals together when just two weeks ago they started saying 6K. Now the beginning of April is appears to some, because people don’t read all the way, that we have 6K in case.

It just seems all doom and gloom and not real hard data with the proper ranges and explanation.

 

[Valcazar]

See I don’t think I am quite doing that.

I don't think you are doing that. I was commenting on a more general problem about how these things play out.

You're seeing the same effect right now with the Georgia law. The history of voter suppression measures is that they can often be overcome by organization and effort.
Therefore some people say "see! These won't even do anything, so they aren't bad," but that's the wrong lesson to take.

What these news outlets never do is tell you the bottom number of those predictions. They don’t tell you how that modelling comes about.

I agree. That's part of the problem I am describing. They just throw numbers - whichever is scariest - and don't do context.

 

[doggystyle99]

Where are you getting 4500 cases yesterday?

It was just over 3000. Can you provide a link?

Here is mine.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-covid-19-omnibus-april-3-1.5974789

Here is the actual data

COVID-19 Canada Tracker

covid19tracker.ca

 

[doggystyle99]

If you look at my OP, two things had to happen to reach these numbers.

1. Ford had to end the lockdowns and ease restrictions, going colour coded etc. He did that.

2. We needed to have VOCs. Which we do.

What these news outlets never do is tell you the bottom number of those predictions. They don’t tell you how that modelling comes about. They just push the fear factor. Which is what doesn’t help anyone.

Now they are mashing two days totals together when just two weeks ago they started saying 6K. Now the beginning of April is appears to some, because people don’t read all the way, that we have 6K in case.

It just seems all doom and gloom and not real hard data with the proper ranges and explanation.

This is not correct at all. Again the projections were based on lockdowns being lifted by a certain date with little to no measures being in place.
The projections are there for everyone to read and understand, as long as you read the source how the modelling was calculated, and they are not wrong.

 

[Jenesis]

This is not correct at all. Again the projections were based on lockdowns being lifted by a certain date with little to no measures being in place.
The projections are there for everyone to read and understand, as long as you read the source how the modelling was calculated, and they are not wrong.

Yelling at me in bold. Wow. Ok then.

I’m not going to have a conversation with someone yelling at me. So maybe you should move on to the others you like to yell at and I will continue the civil convo with other members.

Thanks

PS - these numbers from Ontario’s actual COVID site say different.

Dataset - Ontario Data Catalogue

covid-19.ontario.ca

April 3 - 3009 new case
April 2 - 3089 new case.

 

[doggystyle99]

Yelling at me in bold. Wow. Ok then.

I’m not going to have a conversation with someone yelling at me. So maybe you should move on to the others you like to yell at and I will continue the civil convo with other members.

Thanks

PS - these numbers from Ontario’s actual COVID site say different.

Dataset - Ontario Data Catalogue

covid-19.ontario.ca

April 3 - 3009 new case
April 2 - 3089 new case.

I am not yelling I put it in bold so you can see and concentrate on the important part as you simply ignored it in the previous post and repeated the exact same point that is opposite to the facts.

Reading what you post would be quite helpful too, the link you provided clearly states last it was updated was yesterday April 3, 2021 at 10:30 AM.

 

[Jenesis]

Maybe I am reading things wrong. I have often said I get shit wrong all the time.

But if this is how I am receiving the info, then I am not the only one. It is reading like doom and gloom - not data, not education, not explanation and it is not helping the general public to not fully understand. This 3009 figure is coming from the actual Ontario website, is quoted by news media and you say it is almost 1500 more then that.

See how that can be confusing? How that confusion can make people react to protocols differently? You can’t bold everyone into believing you over what is reported by what is suppose to be trusted places of supposed fact.

 

[doggystyle99]

Maybe I am reading things wrong. I have often said I get shit wrong all the time.

But if this is how I am receiving the info, then I am not the only one. It is reading like doom and gloom - not data, not education, not explanation and it is not helping the general public to not fully understand. This 3009 figure is coming from the actual Ontario website, is quoted by news media and you say it is almost 1500 more then that.

See how that can be confusing? How that confusion can make people react to protocols differently? You can’t bold everyone into believing you over what is reported by what is suppose to be trusted places of supposed fact.

Everyone gets things wrong, I get things wrong as well, I am not stubborn to not learn from my mistake, I try to understand where I went wrong and fix the mistake so it doesn't happen again.
Again in the link you provided it clearly states the last update on the number was April 3, 2021 at 10:30 AM, understanding what that means and how there will be a large difference in the actual number of cases is something that's easy to understand, it's not confusing one bit, unless one just ignores that very important detail.






Again here are the actual numbers for Ontario from yesterday April 3, 2021

 

[Jenesis]

Everyone gets things wrong, I get things wrong as well, I am not stubborn to not learn from my mistake, I try to understand where I went wrong and fix the mistake so it doesn't happen again.
Again in the link you provided it clearly states the last update on the number was April 3, 2021 at 10:30 AM, understanding what that means and how there will be a large difference in the actual number of cases is something that's easy to understand, it's not confusing one bit, unless one just ignores that very important detail.


View attachment 40130



Again here are the actual numbers for Ontario from yesterday April 3, 2021

View attachment 40131

I get that my link is time stamped and I will go back tomorrow for the new update and see the number change from 3009 to 4484.

But your image doesn’t have a time stamp. If it did, it would help the reader to know it was taken at a later time and therefore the most recent available data.

As it stands right now, it looks very different and to people who are not going to have someone like you explain it to them, then are going to see this as confusing.

Same with the confusing wording around the predictions and how they are reported.

Same with the vaccine roll out. They say they are doing 70+ right now. That is what is/was being reported but in TO you can get it at 60+ for what I assume is Pfizer vaccine. 55+ for I assume AstraZeneca. Out here in Durham is 65+. It is all over the map and the information is all over the map.

So when all these government based sites are showing differing info, when news media are using click-bait headlines and not display the facts in a comprehensive manner, things appear as doom and gloom predictions that are not being met.

I get the facts you are presenting to me. Maybe you should write for the papers too. Maybe more people would understand them. I don’t know but what I do know is the way information is being presented is partially why people are not believing in this lockdowns, why people feeling the news media is lying to them and why people are not trusting their government, why is is coming across as failed predictions.

I’m talking about the way it is being displayed and how it is received. Not what the actual facts are. I know lots of people who are confused because of the way information is being put out there.

 

[TeeJay]

Why have the reports a lately been announcing 2 days with a records? Since April 2, I have seen numerous new reports of COVID cases at 6000. But then you have to read further to find out the numbers are combining two days totals.

Why is this being done like this all of sudden? Is it because they projected up to 10K cases a day in March and didn’t reach it so they said 6K by April and now that we have hit April, they need to report a 6K number to make them look ”right”. We all know that people read headlines mostly, then if they do read the article, it is not the whole article so people are seriously going to think we have 6K case. I had a convo with someone yesterday who thought it was 6K daily not a two day total

Three things that recently happened that I am sure effected numbers

1- Revised the counting metrics (which is a major issue for fake numbers, esp in those presumptive cases that test out negative in the end)
2- They did change time cases were reported (really more of an issue for ICU than total cases but they still are a small part)
3- Holidays / Long Weekend (last time this happened we had very low count one day (Sunday?) plus really high count next day (Monday?) so I suspect Easter is also a factor in reporting

 

[TeeJay]

But if this is how I am receiving the info, then I am not the only one. It is reading like doom and gloom - not data, not education, not explanation and it is not helping the general public to not fully understand. This 3009 figure is coming from the actual Ontario website, is quoted by news media and you say it is almost 1500 more then that.

See how that can be confusing? How that confusion can make people react to protocols differently? You can’t bold everyone into believing you over what is reported by what is suppose to be trusted places of supposed fact.

Want to talk about confusing?

That 3000 being reported is not even 3000
They are including presumptive cases in that total

And (as pointed out before) the joke is that if a presumptive case tests out negative for covid, they are actually still counting it as a covid case


Also seeing as test does not come back for days afterwards the entire scale is technically wrong anyways
Maybe a few years from now we can actually get an accurate running total but mass hysteria over presumptive cases is insanity


Oh and link for those who doubt this is actually true here:

https://www.health.gov.on.ca/en/pro/programs/publichealth/coronavirus/docs/2019_case_definition.pdf

 

[squeezer]

Three things that recently happened that I am sure effected numbers

1- Revised the counting metrics (which is a major issue for fake numbers, esp in those presumptive cases that test out negative in the end)
2- They did change time cases were reported (really more of an issue for ICU than total cases but they still are a small part)
3- Holidays / Long Weekend (last time this happened we had very low count one day (Sunday?) plus really high count next day (Monday?) so I suspect Easter is also a factor in reporting

Want to talk about confusing?

That 3000 being reported is not even 3000
They are including presumptive cases in that total

And (as pointed out before) the joke is that if a presumptive case tests out negative for covid, they are actually still counting it as a covid case


Also seeing as test does not come back for days afterwards the entire scale is technically wrong anyways
Maybe a few years from now we can actually get an accurate running total but mass hysteria over presumptive cases is insanity


Oh and link for those who doubt this is actually true here:

https://www.health.gov.on.ca/en/pro/programs/publichealth/coronavirus/docs/2019_case_definition.pdf

NONSENSE LIES AND BULLSHIT

 

[Valcazar]

And (as pointed out before) the joke is that if a presumptive case tests out negative for covid, they are actually still counting it as a covid case
[...]
Oh and link for those who doubt this is actually true here:

https://www.health.gov.on.ca/en/pro/programs/publichealth/coronavirus/docs/2019_case_definition.pdf

I presume you are referring to point 13 in the document you linked to?

13. Any case classified as probable based on a high risk exposure (i.e. close contact) or exposure to a known cluster or outbreak , which subsequently tests negative/not detected for the SARS-CoV-2 virus should no longer be classified as a probable case. Exceptions may be made for negatives on a compromised sample or if NAAT testing is delayed (e.g. >10 days following symptom onset), whereby such persons remain as probable cases.

Is it that first bit that I bolded?

 

[basketcase]

Why have the reports a lately been announcing 2 days with a records? Since April 2, I have seen numerous new reports of COVID cases at 6000. But then you have to read further to find out the numbers are combining two days totals.

Why is this being done like this all of sudden? Is it because they projected up to 10K cases a day in March and didn’t reach it so they said 6K by April and now that we have hit April, they need to report a 6K number to make them look ”right”. We all know that people read headlines mostly, then if they do read the article, it is not the whole article so people are seriously going to think we have 6K case. I had a convo with someone yesterday who thought it was 6K daily not a two day total

Or it could be far simpler and simply the news reporting the numbers released each day. Every news article I've seen has been pretty upfront that these are two day worth of numbers. Yes, media makes money by clickbait but they are reporting the facts.

I also recall someone complaining about projections in the 2,000-10,000 /days. One article had the most optimistic projection being 1650 by April 2. Seems we're clearly in that range (though thankfully the low end).

 

[Jenesis]

Or it could be far simpler and simply the news reporting the numbers released each day. Every news article I've seen has been pretty upfront that these are two day worth of numbers. Yes, media makes money by clickbait but they are reporting the facts.

I also recall someone complaining about projections in the 2,000-10,000 /days. One article had the most optimistic projection being 1650 by April 2. Seems we're clearly in that range (though thankfully the low end).

I just don’t get why now after a whole year, we are reporting 2 day numbers. All of a sudden. So why now???

Is it to show a higher click bait number? Is it because just 2 weeks ago they had headlines that said 6k in April and now they can post headlines of 6k if they post two days??? Just things that make you think.

Everyone gets things wrong, I get things wrong as well, I am not stubborn to not learn from my mistake, I try to understand where I went wrong and fix the mistake so it doesn't happen again.
Again in the link you provided it clearly states the last update on the number was April 3, 2021 at 10:30 AM, understanding what that means and how there will be a large difference in the actual number of cases is something that's easy to understand, it's not confusing one bit, unless one just ignores that very important detail.


View attachment 40130



Again here are the actual numbers for Ontario from yesterday April 3, 2021

View attachment 40131

My source - which is the Ontario government website still says 3009 for the other day. April 3rd. It has not changed to your number of 4484 which is not on a government site.

Can you admit now that having two sites with a difference of almost 1500 case can be confusing to people? And how confused people are less likely to believe some of these numbers and therefore not trust in our government?

 

[basketcase]

I just don’t get why now after a whole year, we are reporting 2 day numbers. All of a sudden. So why now???
...

It's not new. It's happened every stat holiday. No conspiracy about it but simply the government doesn't report data on those days so the media reports it the next day when it's released.

Here's from Christmas day
Ontario sees 4,301 new cases of COVID-19 over 2 days as provincewide lockdown begins

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-covid-19-update-december-26-1.5855216

New years
Ontario sees 5,839 new cases of COVID-19 and 95 deaths over 2 days

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid19-update-jan-2-ontario-1.5859541

Same thing for Labour Day, Canada Day, and last Easter.


And sorry but it seems you're thinking is simply trying to confirm your bias instead of looking at why things are that way.

p.s. Notice that both are clear in the headlines that it's a two day number?