Ok, who else had anything like a plan who had a chance?
Bernie didn't.
Trump doesn't.
How long until Trump throws Pence under the bus and replaces him with Nikki Haley
- Thread starter Knuckle Ball
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Bernie didn't.
Trump doesn't.
I'd say Warren had a worse chance. Judging from her turn around on progressive issues.
She showed her true colours. A pandering political animal. To stupid to realize that the Party leadership hates her.
Duverger's Law
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duverger's_law
Other aspects of the US system besides plurality voting help reenforce it as well. The US has a presidency, which seems to add pressure there, along with electoral college pressure. If a third party does emerge, it will likely be at the lower levels first, not the presidency. (And probably be regional and then slowly roll out nationally.)
In 1992 and 1996, Presidential candidate Ross Perot did far better than the all the third party candidates combined in 2012 and 2016. John Anderson got 6.6% of the vote in 1980. It's hard to project a trend from one election particularly when we have had more successful third party candidates in the past. Generally, people realize third party candidates don't really accomplish much besides playing the role of spoiler.
While I can understand the frustration with two party systems, multiparty systems have awkward manifestations. I would just point to what is going on in Israel with the Netanyahu-Gantz coalition.
Ross showed there was a hunger for something else. My theory is the Internet with its information and fundraising capabilities will continue to facilitate growth in this.
When it coalesces into something viable is up for argument. I thought this year may be a tipping point but I was wrong.
The movement however is still strong. It will move past Sanders. In many cases has. It was never about him. But about his record of supporting the policy.
Yes exactly, regional then national. That's how one of the major U.S. political parties have historically been displaced over time by another party.
Since this post is getting far too intelligent and engaging for some members to allow such a discussion, let me beat them to the punch.
If Trump loses in 2020, he will probably start his own regional party in the racist South.
Yup. And with the announcement by many grassroots groups they won't be endorsing Joe Biden but working with down ballot progressive candidates you may be seeing just that.
My guess is that if Trump loses in 2020 he will start his own news network.
Jared, Ivanka, and Don Jr might run for office, though.
I don't think Nikky Hayley wants to be linked with Trump, sexy Hucka would be a better choice.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VGWfGhABCj0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VGWfGhABCj0
The fact Butler refuses to look at Anderson and Perot is telling. Both did vastly better than most recent third party and both would be considered centrist more or less. (Anderson's btrajectory post-1980 probably can be called progressive and the Justice Party sounds like it was for all the things Butler claims to be for.)
Going further back the last 3rd party to win a state (the regional approach) was the American Independent party under George Wallace. Not exactly leftist, to say the least.
The history of third parties over 200-odd years is about 1/5 of the time they break 5%. Their ideas usually get absorbed by one of the two mains as part of a re-alignment. In a big enough crisis, one can break through if one of the big two fracture over something core (slavery breaks the Whigs) or one of the main two withers into insignificance. (The Federalists).
It's not crazy. That was where Wallace won. It still votes largely as a block. The question would be what the GOP does in that case. Do they compete for the hard core white supremacist vote or do they think they can poach conservative Democrats back to their side if they drop the racism?
I'm not sure which approach I would expect.
The news network idea is also possible, with the kids moving to the forefront.
Are these groups regional?
Are they refusing to support Democratic candidates down ballot? Or is it just a performative rejection of Joe Biden? Are they working together to form a party or are they just activist groups on the side witholding endorsements? The latter isn't new and without proof of voting power they aren't going to accomplish much in terms of third party growth.
Sunrise and Justice Democrats are quite national. Others are regional. And have from what I've seen stated they won't be using their resources to campaign for him. Individuals can vote and voluteer as they please.
It's my belief the Net is a game changer in terms of getting messaging out and ability to grassroot/small donation fundraise.
The amounts generated by Sanders and Warren show that. If he had run as an independent he would have still gotten that money and made the 15% threshold imo for the debates and to be a national candidate.
And then all bets would have been off.
It makes it easier to fundraise, but that is only parts of the problem. There are fundamental structural problems with the US system that makes it harder, especially at the presidential level.
Having lots of tiny groups spread out like sunshine makes it harder. Remember, Clinton won more votes, but they weren't umped the right way.
Having lots of tiny groups spread out like sunshine makes it harder. Remember, Clinton won more votes, but they weren't umped the right way.
