How long until Trump throws Pence under the bus and replaces him with Nikki Haley
- Thread starter Knuckle Ball
- Start date
I doubt it. The 40% of Americans who are White Nationalists and QAnon Supporters will need to go somewhere with their vote.
The Democrats clearly had a tough time with their nomination process and didn't select the strongest candidate. I hope they can find a way to nominate someone else at the convention.
I like the Parliamentary system for the fact the party members pick their leader/candidate. However, the U.S. Presidential system gives outsiders a shot they might have never had. It gave us Reagan, Clinton, Obama and like him or not now Trump.
They aren't going to nominate someone else at the convention. The move to allowing more of the general population (not even restricting it to party registration) changed things forever. Legally of course, there is nothing in the US system preventing it being done like a parliamentary one. (the Greens don't use primaries, they just pick their leader)
But the blowback on rejecting the actual voting would be huge. Pretty much only the Sanders team has pitched for using super delegates and such for overturning the vote. No one really wants it. Outside a major health crisis or something, Biden isn't going anywhere. (And why would he? He still consistently leads Trump )
It would be interesting if the US went to a formal two stage system where all parties had primaries nationally or something. The weird halfway place we are in now has drawbacks. I could see people arguing for a run off like France instead of primaries. That would put more third parties into the system but it would mean parties probably pick their candidate behind closed doors.
That's actually how I think it can go down. After the convention, the Biden campaign declares some kind of health issue and Biden bows out. If he bows out before the convention, the Sanders folks are going to claim Sanders deserves the nomination. The Sanders supporters will be pissed either way of he is not awarded the nomination.
I think you will admit the Biden campaign so far is an enigma. He hasn't really campaigned much. When Biden campaigned and debated in the primary, he was lackluster. The fear of a Sanders victory forced Democrats to coalesce around the Biden campaign. It wasn't exactly rousing excitement for Biden.
As far as the general election, there is a long way to go. Trying to keep a candidate off the campaign trail and away from the media has generally not been successful. The election will be greatly focused on COVID. Democrats will say that Trump's actions or lack thereof made the outbreak worse. The President and the Republicans will compare the COVID outbreak to a war effort and defense of the country.
I've seen the polls in favor of Biden. I've also seen polls that have the race much closer in battleground states. As anyone can see, the Blue State electorates have rallied around stricter lockdown provisions. That's so far. The Red State electorates have generally been supportive of loosening the lockdowns. Depending on how the virus and the economy progresses, treatments, stimulus and all, there is a lot of uncertainty heading into the general election.
