Yes, the question is how much of capitalism to shut down to save how many lives. Shut down 30% to save 80% of lives, or shut down 50% to save 90% of lives, or shut down 80% to save 91% lives? There is always a balance when marginal costs equal to marginal benefits.
The Nordic Model
- Thread starter Insidious Von
- Start date
April 2nd is 3 weeks ago from today and April 9th is 2 weeks ago today.
I forgot to put the following numbers for Denmark and Norway from today. Here they are and they are still a lot better than Sweden even if one were to use that irrational method of comparison.
April 23rd---------Denmark-8073 cases, 394 deaths, 4.9% rate-----------Norway-7361 cases, 193 deaths, 2.6% death rate
VS Sweden
April 2nd------------5568 cases, 308 deaths, rate 5.5%
April 9th-------------9141 cases,793 deaths, rate 8.7%
Even if one were to use the irrational and ridiculous comparison of these countries in 2-3 week timeline from Sweden when they all share a similar timeline to the virus, there is zero evidence that Denmark or Norway in 2-3 weeks time from now will have any similarities to the numbers of Sweden today.
Sweden today 16755 cases, 2021 deaths, death rate 12.1%
Furthermore the evidence suggests the numbers of cases, numbers of death as well as the death rate in Denmark and Norway are starting to subside. Meanwhile all those numbers in Sweden are on the rise.
Hey there DS99, two questions:
1 - If Sweden had done much more and better testing and their confirmed cases was for example 48,000 - which with the 'model' in place is very realistic - then their death rate would be only 4% and on par/lower than other countries - As we discussed in threads together, hard to judge Sweden against other countries when all countries testing is so incomplete - your thoughts?
2 - Any news/web links about Sweden's healthcare load levels and such as of today (April 23, 2020)? My initial searches have not come up with any stats/feedback on how their healthcare is actually performing and not just a poster's opinion. I figure/hoped since you have shown to have a lot of insight on this particular topic you might have some details to share with the thread?
Take care everyone
And "today's" number show that either people are dying because the medical system is overloaded or that only people with severe symptoms get tested. Given no evidence of the former, it must be the latter. Los of Swedes got the virus, death toll is reasonable, and in a few month they will be over it. We will have all off these slowly over the 1-2 years. No matter how much you stretch the condom, the amount of rubber stays the same.
No, the death toll in Sweden is not reasonable. It is over 2.5 times the death toll (per capita) in Denmark and 3 times the death toll (per capita) in Norway.
Your logic is back assward. You say that Sweden is better off in spite of the death rate being much higher than in Denmark and Norway, because you have a feeling that in the future the death rate in Sweden will be lower than in Denmark and Norway. That is Voodoo thinking.
If you claim that Sweden is doing well, you have to prove it with data, not with unsubstantiated guesses about the future. I for one do not believe that you have a magic eye into the future.
Denmark just took the first small step in lifting the lockdown.
It is going to take a lot of time to finish opening up, and a lot of time for volumes to return, and a lot of time to see the results.
Plus these results will likely be skewed lower by the seasonal virus dissipation.
Denmark is kicking the can down the road.
Sweden is taking the brunt of an inevitable hit now.
The real results will be seen at the end of the next wave.
Plus having to restart a collapsed economy is a big deal, as we will be seeing here for a very long extremely painful time.
There are massive numbers of people and companies who already can`t pay their basic expenses.
There are several millions of people who only have 2 more CERB payments coming.
It is kind of like both countries having a $100 billion budget surplus and a $100 billion dollar bill to pay.
Denmark pays $20 billion and shows a budget surplus of $80 billion.
Sweden pays $80 billion and shows a budget surplus of $20 billion.
Danmand blows his load over how much better the Danes did with 4 times the budget surplus.
How about a different analogy for the curve. We are all here because we like hot women getting us off. Like hospitals and medical care are a finite resource, so is the number of women available to help us with our needs and I'd expect our usage rate has been pretty constant.
Now instead of a steady rate of customers, imagine the women needing to complete all their 'duties' in 3 weeks instead of 6 months. Sweden right now is at the point where all of the in-calls are fully booked with staff working long hours with little time in between 'patients' to take care of themselves. If it gets much worse, there work will be beds in the always and staff will need to service multiple 'patients' at the same time.
The differences in testing is why many people studying the virus are looking at death and hospitalisation rates (but even then, physical and social differences between different cultures still make it a lot more complex than just how locked down a country is).
How do you know that the data that you are quoting is correct? If you are getting it from the same people that claim the mortality rate of this virus is as high as 5% you are greatly misguided.
The mortality rate that is being pushed on us by the media, the politicians and the WHO is wrong. The number of infected people is much higher than the number that's being used to calculate the mortality rate. That's because only small percentage of people have been tested so far yet that number is used for statistical calculation. And if the actual number of infected people is much higher then the mortality rate must be much smaller than the one given to us.
That is why I only rely on number of deaths. I have no reason to doubt the number of deaths reported by Sweden and Denmark.
GD
1. When you take into account the testing for Sweden and let's say hypothetically the numbers of confirmed cases increased to 48 000, one can not simply assume that all of those new # confirmed cases will be mild in nature and not need critical care in hospitals nor result in extra deaths. So it's really not arealistic to assume the possibility of it. If there was an increase in the number confirmed cases in Sweden from the current 16000 to 48000 the number of critical care cases would overburden their healthcare system to the point that the numbers of deaths as well as the death rate will exponentially grow like it did in Italy.
As for testing it's not incomplete, this is a point that certain people (right wing nut bars) have been trying to falsely make just to undermine the severity of the Coronavirus and get the USA to back to opening up businesses.
Not every country can be like Germany who has poured $600Bln just to fight the spread of the Coronavirus. And it's not even possible
2. I read an article that had Sweden at roughly 90% capacity in what they can handle against the Coronavirus, If I find it again I'll forward it to you.
Also another thing to note is Getinge whio is Swedish is one of the worlds largest if not the largest manufacturers of ventilators.
Considering that Denmark, Norway and Sweden all saw the first increase in the Coronavirus cases in days of one another and Sweden is far worse than the two is proof that the only way to battle this virus is through quarantine and isolation measures but everyone who believes in facts and the numbers should have already known this from what transpired in China, Italy, Spain, France, UK, Belgium, etc.
Here is the stark difference in numbers between the 3 neighbouring countries in the last month, Denmark and Norway's numbers are slowly easing off but Sweden is not.
March 23
-----------------------Confirmed Cases------------------Total Deaths---------------------------------Death Rate----
Sweden-------------2046---------------------------------27----------------------------------------------1.3%
Denmark------------1460---------------------------------24---------------------------------------------1.6%
Norway--------------2625---------------------------------10---------------------------------------------0.4%
April 23
-----------------------Confirmed Cases-------------------Total Deaths---------------------------------Death Rate----
Sweden-------------16755--------------------------------2021-------------------------------------------12.1%
Denmark------------8073---------------------------------394---------------------------------------------4.9%
Norway-------------7361----------------------------------193---------------------------------------------2.6%
I, like you, have been consistent. You post about your feelings for the future. I post actual data.
This post is also an answer to your posts:
Irrelevant data as you are not comparing apples to apples.
If I had to bet, I would pick Denmark not catching up to Sweden in deaths, but for now it still doesn`t make sense for you to compare them at this point.
Those numbers can be easily manipulated as well. Who is going to question them?
Just look again at the example of how the mortality rate is being wrongly calculated yet that calculation is widely accepted and repeated, without any questions.
Unfortunately you make assumptions based on what you perceive and what you like to be true rather than the facts.
There is no evidence that lots of Swedes have the virus like you claim nor is there any evidence that they will be over it in a few months and other countries won't, all of this is an assumption based on feelings rather than the fact.
As for the death toll as you claim being "reasonable" in comparison to their immediate border neighbours Denmark and Norway who all saw the increase in cases in the same timeline as the Swedish people which is a fair comparison the death toll the Swedes are experienceing is a direct result of keeping businesses open and anyone in the right state of mind can understand that it's something that could have been avoided had they taken the proper measures. And no something that could have been avoided is not reasonable.
Here is the numbers of where these 3 countries were a month ago in comparison to one another, If you find the current numbers in Sweden as reasonable you are more clueless than I thought.
March 23
-----------------------Confirmed Cases------------------Total Deaths---------------------------------Death Rate----
Sweden-------------2046---------------------------------27----------------------------------------------1.3%
Denmark------------1460---------------------------------24---------------------------------------------1.6%
Norway--------------2625---------------------------------10---------------------------------------------0.4%
April 23
-----------------------Confirmed Cases-------------------Total Deaths---------------------------------Death Rate----
Sweden-------------16755--------------------------------2021-------------------------------------------12.1%
Denmark------------8073---------------------------------394---------------------------------------------4.9%
Norway-------------7361----------------------------------193---------------------------------------------2.6%
