Well, I'll be playing tonight in a small home game tournament (30 players or so). I will keep track of all the hands I can, especially the ones where there was clearly luck involved. To me, if I have AK and I get 3 callers and there's no A or K on the flop, I fold to most bets so hands like these don't matter. To me the important ones are where you are on the flop, turn or river, and players either bet big or go all in and get called. You will see the cards in most cases and be able to figure out if the play was good/bad.
And for the record, I usually make people pay heavily for draws. Conversely, I generally don't pay that much for draws I'm trying to hit. If I have a good draw with lots of outs, I realize that I still need to hit so I'm hesitant to bet my whole stack and get eliminated.
So, played last night (it's been a few months). Started in a tournament with about 40 people. Got busted when AK called by 99 and no A or K hit. Rebuy. Running low on chips with 20+ people left when I got AA and doubled up against a lower pair who pushed all-in preflop. Throughout the tournament, I got decent enough cards at various stages to bet and take down pots at flop/turn stages. Won a couple of more coinflips than I lost. But whenever I was ahead, my hand held up. Ended up winning the tournament - $300.
Some of the eliminated players stuck around to play cash game. I played and got a bunch of nice hands (small pairs, suited connectors, two face cards) but nothing connected on the flop. Went all in with an open ended straight flush draw for $60 and didn't hit (called by top pair). Rebuy. Same thing, chips dwindling. Made a move by pushing with a small pair on the flop but guy made a good call with a bigger pair even with overs on board (he had a flush draw though) so again lost my stack. Rebuy. Now I'm in for the $300 that I just made. Made a little from a few hands (e.g had KK, raised, 4 callers, bet on flop, everyone folded). Then I flopped top pair, bet and 1 caller. Turn he bet out big so I called because I had a draw as well. River he bets, I fold, he had flopped a set so I saved some money. Then the hand that got me from $60 to about $200 was when I flopped top pair, guy bet, 1 caller, I call. Turn I make 2 pair but there's a flush on board. I push as semi-bluff but bettor calls, other person calls. Bettor had made the flush. Other person pair but an A for the nut flush if another card comes. But instead I hit a full house and tripled up. After that I caught some hands that held up and walked away with about $500 profit on the night ($300 tournament, $200 cash).
Why did I win? Was it due to good luck? No, although some good cards coming at convenient times helped. Coin flips are just that - can go either way. I think out of about 10 I won 6 so a little lucky there I guess. Except for the one hand described, I never drew out on anybody although there were only a few occasions where I was 2nd best heading to river.
Was I the victim of bad luck? NO. My big hands held up and weren't cracked. I didn't get outdrawn on.
Did I make some good moves - for sure. There were a couple of times where I was the short stack and it was blind on blind and I could have pushed all in. I chose to give the BB a walk and they flipped over a few good hands that had me crushed. Also as short stack, I was first to act with 4 players left and I bet with small connectors (45 suited) hoping to take down the blinds. The others had plenty to call but didn't and I most likely would have been in bad shape. And during the cash game, I had a flush draw against two others so I pushed. The first person folded and showed a good pair (not top pair but a good one). The other person called with a worse draw and I won with high card. Getting the guy with the best hand to fold and the other guy to call with a worse hand is ideal play.
Now, I personally avoided turmoil. Cannot say the same thing for some other players who had to rebuy 4 or 5 times and kept getting unlucky. The guy who had the flush and lost to my drawn out full boat had a nasty night - he almost always had the best hand going with all chips in yet got drawn out every time. I felt sorry for him and could empathize because I go through that often enough. Conversely, I saw one guy bet open ended straights all-in and hit most of the time. He made a nice chunk of change.
So, my conclusion? Skill certainly played a part (I've never said otherwise) in knowing when to hold, when to fold, when to bet/raise, when to check and play it safe. Was luck a huge factor? I cannot say it was because there weren't too many cases where I won/lost solely based on luck and nothing more. Would I play again if it were like this? Of course. But it's a rarity for me (based on my own personal experience playing many times) to avoid bad luck. More often than not I lose coin flips. More often than it should happen I lose to draws or having big hands cracked. Basically, this did not happen yesterday - the favorite ended up taking it down. So skill managed to win out and my wallet is a little more full as a result. IMO, if this is how poker really was - the occasional bout of hard luck but with mostly skill being the main factor, I would (1) be doing much better and (2) would play more often and (3) wouldn't complain about bad luck or the fact that luck is a pretty significant factor. How many of you get nervous when you have KK and the flop is 3, 10, J offsuit and the other guy pushes? I called and he had KQ so open ended straight draw. He didn't hit. But I was nervous given my history. Shouldn't be that way given the odds (he's about 20%) but I've had it happen enough.