Becoming a poker genius in one week

[Polaris]

Cards are luck. Admit it.

There is some subtly to the game of poker, that most people cannot accomplish.

Myself I do not play. If I did, then this is how I have to do it in order to win.

Suppose it is that Texas Hold'em I think they call it, where you are dealt two cards and three are face up.

1. You look at your two hold cards, calculate the face up common cards and deduce your chances of you hand improving, on the next two cards.

2. You have to read your opponent. First is he/she/zir bluffing. If not, given the betting patterns, what do you think he has and what are the percentages of him improving it on the next two cards.

There is a real subtly there, because if you have 2 pair or three of a kind, you are in a very strong position, and in poker lore, do not check - raise when you got a hand. If you are looking for another card to make that straight or a flush, you probably are not going all in, only if you make it then you go all in. Unless you really want to gamble.

3. You're looking at the size of the pot. If you have x% of winning in your estimation, but the pot is x+more than your percentage of winning, you have to take that overlay all the time.

In short, in poker you are always making a mathematical calculation. But that is not enough, as you have to make that mathematical calculation for your opponent too. Then relate that to the size of the pot, to decide if that is a good bet or not.

Then ... is he bluffing ...

 

[black booty lover]

Final table of a decent charity tournament (yes I make final tables so I'm not doing so on good luck and prayers), chip leader raises under the gun. I have AK and raise all in. Will cost him 30-35% of his stack. He thinks for 30s and then calls with A9. Turns a straight.

That's a bad beat. What finally caused me to throw in the towel on poker was this:

I had built my bank roll way up, then took a beating, then built it back up. Anyway playing smart and building my bank roll way up again, this one week, a combo of tilting/playing bad, as well as bad beats knocked me down to zero, and I just couldn't bring myself to buy in again. I think the last tournament I was in, someone rivered me on something ridiculous they had no business still being in on. I was ready to throw my fucking lap-top out my window. (seriously) The amount of time I was investing, only to come out losing, made me realize, even as decent player, you have to be better than so many other players with a bit of luck. My favorite tournaments were 12 person sit and go's. It would be two tables of 6. 3rd place got you your money back, with second and first getting decent pay outs. Anyway, in order to make any money, you constantly had to be better than the 10 other players in the tournament. So the way this works, if your playing the rights odds, and the right way, out 100 tournaments, you should finish first or second XX amount of tournaments. Many get focused on one tournament at a time, but the reality is you should be thinking big picture, and say "If I play with this strategy in this style tournament, I should finish in the money xx amount of times which should be on the positive side". Problem is, if you have a bad week like I did, all your hard work goes down the drain.

 

[bcd]

[/B]...there was 1 guy who played with his buddies all the time in it
got a seat at the Niagara Fall open a few years back thru a satellite tourney and he won it ..over $2 million I think, he wasnt a pro by any means...

I believe it was just over $1M, 1.3 rings a bell.

 

[thumper18474]

I believe it was just over $1M, 1.3 rings a bell.

Its possible dont remember exactly

 

[ogibowt]

poker is a game of skill..yes there is variance, randomness and luck.............if each player was dealt 2 cards face down, then the flop, turn and river with no betting, and the winner is the guy with the best hand, then it would be a game of luck.......but poker is a people game and a betting game...when to bet, how much to bet,and who to bet make it a skill game.there are dozen apon dozen poker books out there...is there any "How to win at Roulette" books?

 

[THELMFAO]

For those that say poker is a game of luck... can we play either Nlh or potlimit omaha heads-up for rolls? My tripple range merging skills will impress you lol. But foreal.

 

[sempel]

That's a bad beat. What finally caused me to throw in the towel on poker was this:

I had built my bank roll way up, then took a beating, then built it back up. Anyway playing smart and building my bank roll way up again, this one week, a combo of tilting/playing bad, as well as bad beats knocked me down to zero, and I just couldn't bring myself to buy in again. I think the last tournament I was in, someone rivered me on something ridiculous they had no business still being in on. I was ready to throw my fucking lap-top out my window. (seriously) The amount of time I was investing, only to come out losing, made me realize, even as decent player, you have to be better than so many other players with a bit of luck. My favorite tournaments were 12 person sit and go's. It would be two tables of 6. 3rd place got you your money back, with second and first getting decent pay outs. Anyway, in order to make any money, you constantly had to be better than the 10 other players in the tournament. So the way this works, if your playing the rights odds, and the right way, out 100 tournaments, you should finish first or second XX amount of tournaments. Many get focused on one tournament at a time, but the reality is you should be thinking big picture, and say "If I play with this strategy in this style tournament, I should finish in the money xx amount of times which should be on the positive side". Problem is, if you have a bad week like I did, all your hard work goes down the drain.

I preferred cash games online although I did play many tournaments. I actually thought the 50/50 tournaments were actually nice - 10 entrants, 50% get their money doubled (minus the fee). So as long as you aren't eliminated in 10-6th, you win. And they don't take that long. They then changed the payout a bit to factor in chip count so if you had more chips you got a bigger percentage of the payout. But 5th place still made a little money with a small amount of chips.

I've played many tournaments though with the same strategy and sometimes it works but more often it doesn't and that's due to the cards. At some point the blinds are high enough that the only option when you have a hand is to go all-in and hopefully get the blinds or hope your hand holds up. So many coin flips and I lose way more than I win. Many cases of overpairs getting outdrawn by underpairs, having a pair and the opponent has one over and hits, or some BS straight hitting. And yes, I've experienced many times where I wish I could punch an opponent (online or live) because they flip over a hand they should have folded on the flop and the turn but somehow got there on the river.

I think in order to make some money you have to have some basic skill. The rest relies on the cards and luck. You can make the right calls but if your hand doesn't hold, you're screwed. If you are card dead, you're screwed. And I have played in live games with players that are lucky - they get QQ or higher 5-6 times each night and I'm hoping to get a SINGLE pair and don't get anything. And people, yes you don't need the cards to win if you can bluff - but bluffing also relies on your opponent's hand being weak enough to fold. I remember this one guy complaining because he had played 2 nights in a row and none of his flush draws were hitting. I'm sitting there wanting to tell this guy to FO because that's how it is for a guy like me - I'm LUCKY if my flush draw does hit. It's never happened often enough for me to think something's wrong when they suddenly stop hitting. And this same fuck calls me out every now and then for never showing my cards and always having crap cards. Such a dick. And again, for most, this would be an advantage because he's going to call me light because he thinks I have nothing. So one night, the last pot I flop top pair (ok kicker). I bet, he raises, I go all in, he insta-calls. He has second pair. Hits trips on the turn and takes the $400 pot. I reminded him for a couple of weeks about him doing everything wrong except getting lucky. But shit like this makes it hard for me to play - I know I'm good enough to win at cash games and occasionally place in tournaments but the luck factor fucks that all up.

For those that say poker is a game of luck... can we play either Nlh or potlimit omaha heads-up for rolls? My tripple range merging skills will impress you lol. But foreal.

I don't think some guys (at least myself) aren't saying skill is a factor. However, luck is a huge component and although many pros swear that it's mostly skill, I'm sorry but based on what I've seen and experienced, luck is huge.

I know players who will bet flush draws and straight draws and will push (or call all in) with the draws. And not open ended draws or nut flush draws - gutshots and weak flushes. I've flopped sets on many occasions (and some of those were top set) and managed to lose the hand after a person called or pushed with a weak draw and hit. Conversely, I can't do the same thing - it's difficult for me to push/raise with draws because if my semi-bluffs get called, I usually don't hit (and when I say usually, I mean lower than the expected percentage). So it sucks when others constantly bet their draws and hit and I cannot do the same - and that IMO has nothing to do with skill - it has to do with luck because in both cases, the bets are being called.

 

[doggystyle99]

Poker is mostly a game of skill yes luck does play a part in Poker but the main part is skill. If you go into a Hold'em Poker game thinking you need to get lucky to win you don't have the skills for the game and that's why you're a losing player. There are so many components in a Poker game that you need to be aware of and Hold'em Poker games are quite different from one another from online, live, cash, tournament, no limit, limit, lower limit, higher limit and if you don't know how to adjust your game accordingly might as well just put your money on the table and leave.

Any form of online play is not even real poker in my opinion because it's so different from real live cash or tournament games.
Now have I outdrawn others? Absolutely.....Have others outdrawn me? Absolutely......That is a part of the game if you can't understand it or you're going to get upset over it just stop playing, you'll be doing yourself a favour from losing more money.

 

[sempel]

Poker is mostly a game of skill yes luck does play a part in Poker but the main part is skill. If you go into a Hold'em Poker game thinking you need to get lucky to win you don't have the skills for the game and that's why you're a losing player. There are so many components in a Poker game that you need to be aware of and Hold'em Poker games are quite different from one another from online, live, cash, tournament, no limit, limit, lower limit, higher limit and if you don't know how to adjust your game accordingly might as well just put your money on the table and leave.

Any form of online play is not even real poker in my opinion because it's so different from real live cash or tournament games.
Now have I outdrawn others? Absolutely.....Have others outdrawn me? Absolutely......That is a part of the game if you can't understand it or you're going to get upset over it just stop playing, you'll be doing yourself a favour from losing more money.

I was once playing in a cash game and got red AA back to back. In both cases, even with heavy betting, I had callers who were betting the river. In both cases there were 4 card straights and 4 card flushes (black of course) on the board. So given the odds of losing with back to back aces against a single hand is around 4%, it's one example of many where I feel luck played a significant part in the outcome. Skill was not a factor as a better opponent would have folded pre-flop or on the flop based on being beat. At the same time, I credit my own skill for being able to fold AA which I know many players cannot do in spite of there being little chance they are still good.

I don't think I am the most skilled player. I think I can admit when I've made some bad calls with the second best hand or knowing I'm behind and needing to hit my draw. Where the "luck" concept comes into play is being card dead, getting outdrawn, and draws not hitting. I understand small sample versus large sample but I've noticed that most often I am not as lucky as the other players around. I've played with some of the same players and either played in or seen many hands. It's not hard to see some players who's success is mainly predicated on getting lucky versus skill. Conversely I can see myself getting unlucky or not getting lucky in similar situations.

I would love to play in high stakes games as seen on TV. Phil Hellmuth is notorious for getting insurance when he's in hands. For those who don't know, insurance is betting that you will lose. If the pot is $1000, and the odds of you losing the hand are 10%, you will bet another person $100 with 10:1 odds so they'll give you $1000 if you lose. You'll win $1000 - 100 = $900. I would love the opportunity to purchase insurance because I would definitely cash in on it more often than I should, statistically speaking.

I'm also a big fan of running it twice, a feature Pokerstars added recently. If you are in a coinflip and run it twice, most of the time it's split 1:1 so there's less of a luck factor.

 

[doggystyle99]

I was once playing in a cash game and got red AA back to back. In both cases, even with heavy betting, I had callers who were betting the river. In both cases there were 4 card straights and 4 card flushes (black of course) on the board. So given the odds of losing with back to back aces against a single hand is around 4%, it's one example of many where I feel luck played a significant part in the outcome. Skill was not a factor as a better opponent would have folded pre-flop or on the flop based on being beat. At the same time, I credit my own skill for being able to fold AA which I know many players cannot do in spite of there being little chance they are still good.

I don't think I am the most skilled player. I think I can admit when I've made some bad calls with the second best hand or knowing I'm behind and needing to hit my draw. Where the "luck" concept comes into play is being card dead, getting outdrawn, and draws not hitting. I understand small sample versus large sample but I've noticed that most often I am not as lucky as the other players around. I've played with some of the same players and either played in or seen many hands. It's not hard to see some players who's success is mainly predicated on getting lucky versus skill. Conversely I can see myself getting unlucky or not getting lucky in similar situations.

I would love to play in high stakes games as seen on TV. Phil Hellmuth is notorious for getting insurance when he's in hands. For those who don't know, insurance is betting that you will lose. If the pot is $1000, and the odds of you losing the hand are 10%, you will bet another person $100 with 10:1 odds so they'll give you $1000 if you lose. You'll win $1000 - 100 = $900. I would love the opportunity to purchase insurance because I would definitely cash in on it more often than I should, statistically speaking.

I'm also a big fan of running it twice, a feature Pokerstars added recently. If you are in a coinflip and run it twice, most of the time it's split 1:1 so there's less of a luck factor.

You sound like one of those whining poker players who continuously complains about a hand from a few weeks ago where a player outdrew him and does not shut up about it. Just like Phil Hellmuth. Again you don't seem to get it. Poker is not a game of luck it's a game of skill if you are continuously getting beaten by players who have worst hands it's time to stop playing although highly unlikely you just remember those hands that you get beaten and not the ones that you outdraw others.

 

[sempel]

You sound like one of those whining poker players who continuously complains about a hand from a few weeks ago where a player outdrew him and does not shut up about it. Just like Phil Hellmuth. Again you don't seem to get it. Poker is not a game of luck it's a game of skill if you are continuously getting beaten by players who have worst hands it's time to stop playing although highly unlikely you just remember those hands that you get beaten and not the ones that you outdraw others.

You are wrong. I don't whine about specific hands well after, although I remember them and use them for reference. I also do know when I have gotten lucky (once had KJ and outdrew AA, once had 77 at the final table of a tournament and outdrew QQ - ended up winning). So I actually do know when I get lucky because I know the hands, the odds, etc. And unlike some other assholes I never celebrate getting lucky. I either say nothing or even apologize because that's called etiquette.

However, you've nailed something on the head - in general I have stopped playing because it's exactly as you described - players with worse hands who don't have a clue (don't know pot odds, don't realize I'm ahead, or plain just hope/pray their draw will win) end up beating me in various hands. I've seen people who are lucky as fuck - they are all too happy to go all in anytime with nothing, a single pair (not top pair) or some draw. Clearly if the odds matched the results, players like this would lose way more than they win. Yet I've seen them continue to win more often then they lose and they have limited to no skill at all.

I know for a fact that more often than not I actually make the correct decisions. I pretty aware when I made the proper decision based on odds or I was ahead and I knew exactly what the other player had. I've caught some pretty big bluffs with barely anything myself and folded a number of times with a very strong hand because I felt the other person was stronger and in many cases when the hand was revealed I was correct. And of course, there's always the right laydown that was a correct decision at the time but it would have been the winning hand if one continued but in those cases hindsight is 20/20. Easy to talk about the hands one should have won if they stayed but I never do.

 

[superstar_88]

You sound like one of those whining poker players who continuously complains about a hand from a few weeks ago where a player outdrew him and does not shut up about it. Just like Phil Hellmuth. Again you don't seem to get it. Poker is not a game of luck it's a game of skill if you are continuously getting beaten by players who have worst hands it's time to stop playing although highly unlikely you just remember those hands that you get beaten and not the ones that you outdraw others.

Precisely my sentiments. But you need players like Sempel otherwise it wouldn't be worth playing. Players who think they are just unlucky.

 

[doggystyle99]

Precisely my sentiments. But you need players like Sempel otherwise it wouldn't be worth playing. Players who think they are just unlucky.

Agree that players like Sempel are needed. But I also think that great players aka players who are skilled find a way to get their good opponents tilted and off their game. And that is where true skill comes in.

 

[sempel]

Precisely my sentiments. But you need players like Sempel otherwise it wouldn't be worth playing. Players who think they are just unlucky.

Agree that players like Sempel are needed. But I also think that great players aka players who are skilled find a way to get their good opponents tilted and off their game. And that is where true skill comes in.

I'd happily take on anybody in a 10-person game because I know I'm good enough to beat them. However it would likely end up being a losing proposition due to bad luck, not due to bad play. Might as well find a random lady on the street, give her $1000 cash, give her directions to my place, and hope she shows up. A losing proposition most of the time.

Not a fan of heads up because you are generally forced to play every hand. Given my belief in bad luck and bad cards, difficult to succeed against a decent opponent. Get coolered many times over.

 

[sempel]

Question - you're in a big tournament and you have a set on the turn. There's a 4 card flush on the board. Your opponent goes all-in and it will cost you all your chips and your tournament life to call. What do you do?

The correct answer is to fold because you are behind, you are drawing, and you'll get eliminated. However, some players will go for it hoping the board pairs to fill them up, even though the pot odds are against them, the odds are low.

I've been in many situations where I've flopped top set but still lost because the person flushed or hit their straight on the turn or the river and the board obviously didn't pair. I've flopped the nut flush only to have a person call with a pair, hit trips on the turn, pair up on the river. You can put them to the test by making them call off their stack and yet still, many will "gamble" and go for it. So skill no longer makes a difference at this point. Hell, I bet you can even show people you are ahead on the turn, bet all your chips, and some will still call hoping to draw out. Hopefully some of you have seen Rounders and the heads up match at the end. Damon lays down top 2 pair to KGB because he knows KGB has a straight and he's drawing against a made hand.

Funny thing is, some of you assume I must be a bad player because I lose. A fair conclusion but sadly the wrong one. I KNOW I have bad luck. I know if I'm drawing, I have little chance of hitting. I know if my opponent is drawing, they have a higher than normal chance of drawing out. So I bet strongly when I have it, and usually fold when I don't unless the price to draw is relatively cheap. I find it interesting seeing on TV how some people are happy to put their money all-in with a pair and a draw, and frankly don't give a crap that their opponent has the better hand. I've put my money in many times with open-ended straight flush draws and nothing came of it. Kind of difficult to be as aggressive as others with the same hand/draw.

 

[superstar_88]

I'd happily take on anybody in a 10-person game because I know I'm good enough to beat them. However it would likely end up being a losing proposition due to bad luck, not due to bad play. Might as well find a random lady on the street, give her $1000 cash, give her directions to my place, and hope she shows up. A losing proposition most of the time.

Not a fan of heads up because you are generally forced to play every hand. Given my belief in bad luck and bad cards, difficult to succeed against a decent opponent. Get coolered many times over.

Again you've shown your ignorance of the game. The biggest skill is game selection. If you cannot spot the fish then you're the one. You can't just play against anyone and rely on luck to win. Sure sit down with the best players in the world in a 10 handed game and count yourself unlucky when you lose.

 

[Occasionally]

LOL. Amazing how a game based on cards (luck factor) is promoted as so skillful. Any joe can win. That's why poker tournies can be won by no-name amateurs, where even a pro can get burned and done in round one.

All it takes is some all-in action and some lucky bluffs and flops and anyone can win.

As shown by the old video, even granny won. Took down a table of veteran card players.

Don't get me wrong, a poker pro will win more than lose, but still it's a game of luck so they can always lose.

It's not like other competitions of speed, strength, skill where a pro will never/almost never lose to a no-namer with half baked skills and physique trying his luck.

And in some pure skill//strength contests like chess, weightlifting, hurdles etc..... a expert athlete won't lose once.

 

[Polaris]

LOL. Amazing how a game based on cards (luck factor) is promoted as so skillful. Any joe can win. That's why poker tournies can be won by no-name amateurs, where even a pro can get burned and done in round one.

That is not how anyone who plays a lot of poker, or gambles a lot, or even risks money in financial market would consider it.

Just sticking with the poker, the card player who spends all his time playing, is only looking for a very slight incremental edge. With that edge, he will win in the long run.

Like the game casino blackjack and the card counting, to count cards correctly will overcome the house's edge and give the player a 1% edge.

That 1% edge is so great, that the casino will ban you if they catch someone counting cards at the BJ tables.

That is not luck, that is math.

If the poker player plays his cards right, over someone does not, he has the mathematical edge to win over players who do not in the long run.

It is not luck. It is math. It is inevitable.

:blabla:

 

[superstar_88]

That is not how anyone who plays a lot of poker, or gambles a lot, or even risks money in financial market would consider it.

Just sticking with the poker, the card player who spends all his time playing, is only looking for a very slight incremental edge. With that edge, he will win in the long run.

Like the game casino blackjack and the card counting, to count cards correctly will overcome the house's edge and give the player a 1% edge.

That 1% edge is so great, that the casino will ban you if they catch someone counting cards at the BJ tables.

That is not luck, that is math.

If the poker player plays his cards right, over someone does not, he has the mathematical edge to win over players who do not in the long run.

It is not luck. It is math. It is inevitable.

:blabla:

I wouldn't want to play Polaris cause he knows what he is talking about. Yes, there is luck. That's why there are fish. The fish rely on luck. And the fish win once in a while but are lifetime losers. The pros lose once in a while but are lifetime winners. The pros play for the edge. 51% is an edge. It still means can lose 49% of the time but the pros like those odds. The fish? Well, they take the 49% without knowing it.

 

[Polaris]

LOL.

Well, you know ... there is another saying too ...

"The greatest feeling in the world is to gamble and win."

"The second greatest feeling in the world is to gamble and lose"

Maybe someone called Nick the Greek or Nick the Gambler said that.

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