Gas-Powered Cars Will Vanish in 8 Years, Big Oil Will Collapse: Stanford Study

[George The Curious]

Another thing that comes to mind - am I supoosed to be plugging and unplugging the damn car every time I park it. I am too lazy to even use keys in my cars, I am totally keyless now...

What makes you think you need to plug in EVERY TIME you park it? With average use of car, maybe you plugin once every 3 - 5 days. Many EV drivers renting a gas car find it annoying having to VISIT gas stations, whereas you can just charge EVs at home.

ANOTHER THING that COMES TO MIND - gasoline cars are completely dependent on fuel providers and long and complicated supply chain from crude oil extraction to refinery to transport and distribution of gasolines. If any of these were disrupted such as a natural disasters, it will render your "robust and reliable" gas cars totally useless. Also what about the quality of gasoline? different addtives, leaded, unleaded, diesel, ethanol additives etc. Will government ban diesel if you have diesel car? Petrochemical fuel is so complicated, and quality control is completely hidden from you. Your perception of "good old" gasoline in reality is a lot more complicated than you perceive.

Whereas electrical energy can be generated from many sources - I am planning on getting a solar panel, so that even in the event of long term hydro disruption, I can still be self-reliant on transportation.

 

[oil&gas]

My understanding is, an EV doesn't need to be but better left
plugged in to minimize battery drainage.

 

[oil&gas]

On top of the cost of the electricity what is the
fee of charging an EV like in Toronto?

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
City of Vancouver approves new fees for electric car charging
June 26, 2017

Electric Vehicle (EV) owners in Vancouver will now have to pay up if they want to charge up.

Vancouver City Council has approved a new policy that will see EV owners, who had previously been able to charge up for free at city charge stations, on the hook for electricity.

According to the new policy, EV owners will have to pay $2 per hour for a slow charge.

Those in a hurry and looking to power up quickly will be on the hook for $16 per hour.

In both cases, drivers will still have to pay an hourly parking meter rate, which was already in place for the use of charging stations.

The city estimates the new rates would be equivalent to about 50 cents per litre of gas.

Green Councillor Adriane Carr says high demand for the charging stations was part of the decision to move ahead with the fees.

“It looks like it’s going to be a pilot project that staff are going to start on quickly. They are very keen to see the response. There are parking meters right now that have electric vehicle charging stations, they are backed up and it’s hard to get at them.”

Council also approved another pilot program calling for 20 new charging stations, 15 of which would be residential installations.

The city currently has 16 curbside charging stations.

Use of electric vehicle charging stations has more than doubled in the past two years in Vancouver and the city says the stations where fees are being introduced had over 17,000 charging sessions last year.

BC Hydro expects the number of electric vehicles in B.C. to increase to about 300,000 in less than 15 years, and Vancouver alone expects to see about 30,000 of the rechargeable cars.

The city says the pilot programs will continue for two years and the results will be reported back to council.

https://globalnews.ca/news/3556595/vancouver-to-set-fees-for-electric-car-charging/

 

[George The Curious]

On top of the cost of the electricity what is the
fee of charging an EV like in Toronto?

https://globalnews.ca/news/3556595/vancouver-to-set-fees-for-electric-car-charging/

Vast majority of EVs are charged at home, for most use cases. Public charging stations are mostly for long distance travelers.
Comparing the public EV charging stations to gas stations shows your inherent misunderstand of use cases of EVs vs gas cars. If you don't travel far in a consecutive trip, you never have to visit charging stations, whereas gas cars NEED fueling stations no matter how short of distance you travel every day.

 

[George The Curious]

My understanding is, an EV doesn't need to be but better left
plugged in to minimize battery drainage.

Depends on how long you want to park for. If you are leaving car parked for more than a week, yes, you should plug in. I'm talking about vast majority of use cases - commuters from home to work, and again next day etc. 50 - 100 km / day. then you probably should only need to charge every 3 - 4 days, just one night. You never have to leave the comfort of your own, and visit gas stations to smell the gas and stand in line to pay.

 

[George The Curious]

More and more people will realize the economic benefit of owning EVs, not just to be green, but actually make sense economically.
Not expensive Tesla, but say Nissan Leaf, Hyundai Ionic, or VW eGolf, all boasts range of 250km+, and under $30k before government rebates. You save about $10k in gasoline cost over 5 year ownership of car. It is no brainer. You can use fractions of these savings towards rental gas cars for occasional long distance road trips. If EV fast charging infrastructures imrpove and become widespread, even long distance trips won't be a problem with EVs.

 

[GameBoy27]

Tesla to quadruple size of Canadian Supercharger network, electrify Trans-Canada
The electric car maker plans to install new chargers coast to coast, bolstering its Canadian charging network as the mass-market Model 3 rolls out

Tesla Inc. is adding nearly 100 new Canadian stops to its growing network of charging stations—a major expansion that will more than quadruple the number of Superchargers in Canada and convert its patchy current charging network into a coast-to-coast system.

The electric car maker, which handed over the keys to the first of its Model 3 EVs earlier this summer, also announced plans to double the size of its Supercharger network in April. The move was partially aimed at bolstering the network to make way for the tens of thousands of new drivers who pre-ordered the firm’s first mass-market electric car and will soon be pushing Supercharging stations past capacity.

That's great if you own a Tesla. Not exactly the type of vehicle the average person can afford. So when you're traveling past the Supercharger station in your non-Tesla EV, the sign might as well read closed, 24 hours a day!

 

[oil&gas]

Vast majority of EVs are charged at home, for most use cases. Public charging stations are mostly for long distance travelers.

I suspect that majority of EV owners actually remain loyal to
their gasoline cars. Only a minority of them has no choice but
to drive their EVs for long distance travelling.

 

[oil&gas]

That's great if you own a Tesla. Not exactly the type of vehicle the average person can afford. So when you're traveling past the Supercharger station in your non-Tesla EV, the sign might as well read closed, 24 hours a day!

I wonder if Tesla would just charge a nominal fee to
non-Tesla EVs. That would be a noble thing to do to
expedite the demise of gasoline cars.

 

[George The Curious]

I suspect that majority of EV owners actually remain loyal to
their gasoline cars. Only a minority of them has no choice but
to drive their EVs for long distance travelling.

There is no point keeping a gasoline car if you only take road trip less than 5 times a year. Cheaper to rent car for road trip than maintaining a gasoline car.

 

[GameBoy27]

I wonder if Tesla would just charge a nominal fee to
non-Tesla EVs. That would be a noble thing to do to
expedite the demise of gasoline cars.

Tesla offered other manufacturers the possibility of using their Supercharger network. None have accepted.

There is no point keeping a gasoline car if you only take road trip less than 5 times a year. Cheaper to rent car for road trip than maintaining a gasoline car.

Provided you own a house with a driveway. Otherwise, it pretty much eliminates anyone who lives in an apartment/condo or is limited to street parking. Which is a lot of people.

 

[oil&gas]

What are the odds that supercharger stations will outnumber
gas stations in 8 years?

 

[oil&gas]

Provided you own a house with a driveway. Otherwise, it pretty much eliminates anyone who lives in an apartment/condo or is limited to street parking. Which is a lot of people.

Not a problem if the EV is an autonomus car. The car can roll
itself to the nearby charging station and return to its parking
spot fully-charged. The owner can rest in his condo assured
of a flawless execution of the routine.

 

[George The Curious]

What are the odds that supercharger stations will outnumber
gas stations in 8 years?

Very unlikely, but it's not necessary as vast majority of charging is done at home / work. EVs are different than gas cars that they rarely require charging stations, only when on long distance trips.

 

[George The Curious]

Not a problem if the EV is an autonomus car. The car can roll
itself to the nearby charging station and return to its parking
spot fully-charged. The owner can rest in his condo assured
of a flawless execution of the routine.

I'm on the skeptical camp of autonomous cars. I don't think machine learning is the same as human brain, it will make fatal errors, therefore autonomous cars will not likely to materialize within the decade.
What is needed is inductive charging at condo parking, that requires no cords.

 

[HAMSTER INSPECTOR]

I think EVs will arrive slowly, my guess is over the next 15-20 years. My bet for a 50/50 fossil fuel/EV world is 15+ years from now. As for autonomous vehicles, like all new technologies announce to arrive in 3-5 years it will take 25-30 years.

 

[George The Curious]

I think EVs will arrive slowly, my guess is over the next 15-20 years. My bet for a 50/50 fossil fuel/EV world is 15+ years from now. As for autonomous vehicles, like all new technologies announce to arrive in 3-5 years it will take 25-30 years.

I concur with this prediction. I also think TSLA valuation is stretched. It will crash hard within 2 years. for they will lose out to the competition in EV, and their autonomous technology will disappoint - I think will achieve level 3 at best. Level 5 is definitely 20 years away.

 

[Occasionally]

I have to say, it sure is amazing that George keeps plugging away at EV cars. We get it, you love them. But like it or not, most don't. That's why hardly anyone has one.

EV cars fit a very specific niche of buyer:

- Eco lover
- Small driving distances which fit the km range, which goes anywhere from 100 km to high end Tesla's at around 400 km
- Has a garage. Therefore, anyone who street parks, has a crowded garage or lives in an apartment/condo that doesn't allow it, or has a spot away from a wall (if the building allowed it) can't even do it
- The buyer has to pick and choose from a handful of ugly cars, with Tesla's looking best where the Model 3 looks like a Mazda 3. On the other hand, there's a zillion gas vehicles out there to choose from
- The buyer has to be happy with EV cars which are all small compacts or a handful of normal sized sedans (Teslas). So anyone wanting a family van, pick up, or larger car are out of luck. Some brands don't even make EVs. Have fun finding an EV that can handle of family of four going camping
- The buyer doesn't care that most EV cars have low power
- I think all EVs are automatic (at least the ones I've skimmed). So if you're a traditional stick shift user, there's either none or hardly any EV cars with manual transmission
- Most businesses don't have chargers and there's hardly any charging stations around. So the user has to rely on doing it themselves at home. If someone is able to find a charging spot on the road and needs a boost, they have to sit around for an hour wait for it to charge up
- Has to take the car to the dealer to get major repairs. Hardly any mechanics know how to fix electric engines or batteries. And even fewer "do it yourselfers" know. So if your car is acting up, have fun finding a car expert buddy to know how to fix it

 

[Occasionally]

What makes you think you need to plug in EVERY TIME you park it? With average use of car, maybe you plugin once every 3 - 5 days. Many EV drivers renting a gas car find it annoying having to VISIT gas stations, whereas you can just charge EVs at home.

ANOTHER THING that COMES TO MIND - gasoline cars are completely dependent on fuel providers and long and complicated supply chain from crude oil extraction to refinery to transport and distribution of gasolines. If any of these were disrupted such as a natural disasters, it will render your "robust and reliable" gas cars totally useless. Also what about the quality of gasoline? different addtives, leaded, unleaded, diesel, ethanol additives etc. Will government ban diesel if you have diesel car? Petrochemical fuel is so complicated, and quality control is completely hidden from you. Your perception of "good old" gasoline in reality is a lot more complicated than you perceive.

Whereas electrical energy can be generated from many sources - I am planning on getting a solar panel, so that even in the event of long term hydro disruption, I can still be self-reliant on transportation.

And if the power goes out in your house, or the city experiences a big black out like in 2004 (I think), an EV that's out of power has nowhere to go too. In fact it's worse in those situations because EV cars have poor range to start with, so there's a larger chance of tons of cars stuck in traffic running out of juice by the time traffic finally thins out hours later.

Nobody claims gasoline doesn't pollute. It's just part of the process of a combustion engine.

No different than an EV with 1,000 lb batteries. It's not like they run forever. In fact, articles say that you may need to get a new battery every 5+ years. Who knows where that dead battery goes, but probably a landfill. And a new battery costs $1,000s. How often does someone need to replace an entire gas engine? Hardly ever.

EV batteries also degrade over time. So that max range gets smaller and smaller as every year passes.

 

[K Douglas]

Anyone want to take my bet. I say there will be more gas powered vehicles on the road in North America 8 years from today. Will give 2 to 1 odds. Min bet $1K.