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25 Years Of Predicting The Global Warming ‘Tipping Point’

Frankfooter

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Apr 10, 2015
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Moviefan-2

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Depends on whether or not moviefan likes fiction.

FAST
You guys might be on to something.

For the moment, let's park the discussion about the bet. I have a proposal that perhaps we can all support:

If Frankfooter will acknowledge that all of the data -- including his own graphs -- currently show that the IPCC's predictions have been spectacularly wrong, I'll agree to review the book by the fake "Nobel laureate."

How's that sound?
 

Frankfooter

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Apr 10, 2015
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You guys might be on to something.

For the moment, let's park the discussion about the bet. I have a proposal that perhaps we can all support:

If Frankfooter will acknowledge that all of the data -- including his own graphs -- currently show that the IPCC's predictions have been spectacularly wrong, I'll agree to review the book by the fake "Nobel laureate."

How's that sound?
Sounds about as stupid as most of your posts.
You lost the bet, its you that needs to acknowledge the IPCC is right and you are wrong.

Hey, why not a review of some of your finest work.

Maybe not. NASA has it lower and we did agree that we would use the NASA stats to decide the winner.


I'm satisfied with the existing terms of the bet and continue to like my odds. I'll stick with the bet as is.
The fact that most of the warmest temperatures (according to NASA and NOAA) have been in this century merely reflect the fact that the plateau was reached at about the turn of the century.
NASA says the Earth's temperature has been "flattening" over the past 15 years. If you think NASA has it wrong, say so.
The graph does not show any statistically significant increase for the past 15 years. Indeed, NASA -- which produced the graph -- describes that period as "flattening."
I agree with NASA on this point -- a statistically meaningless change of only 0.02 degrees Celsius over 10 years can definitely be described as a "flattening" of temperatures.
2014 was no warmer than 2005
Furthermore, the period from 1940 to the late 1970s shows there was a slight cooling in the Earth's temperature
The satellite data -- which are considered to be more reliable -- show there has been no statistically significant warming since December 1996.
More to the point, I told Frank that I want to see evidence.
-- Misleading statements about 14 of the 15 years since the turn of the century being the warmest on record. While it may be true that temperatures in the 21st century are consistent with the plateau at the end of the 20th century, it isn't evidence of increasing warming.
Lying about studies:

For example, the American Meteorological Society survey showed about 15 per cent of respondents said natural causes are a significant factor and another 20 per cent said they don't know what is causing the warming (that's a large number that apparently believes in gods and magic). Assuming the results are reasonably consistent among all international bodies, my calculation is reasonable.
As the author of the AMS study clearly stated:
We found high levels of expert consensus on human-caused climate change.

Clearly you are totally wrong about the findings of this study.
In fact, 48 per cent of respondents didn't support the IPCC's position on man-made global warming.
.
No.
That's not what the study found, they said:
"These results, together with those of other similar studies, suggest high levels of expert consensus about human-caused climate change."
.
Those quotes show that you picked NASA and supported the work of NASA up until you started losing the bet.
Then you started lying, just like you started lying about those two studies quoted above.

Time for you to own up, moviefan.

You bet that the global anomaly wouldn't hit 0.83ºC for 2015 and now its 0.84ºC.
You lost the bet.

First book you have to buy is Michael Mann's book on the Hockey Stick.
http://www.amazon.ca/The-Hockey-Stick-Climate-Wars/dp/0231152558
 

Frankfooter

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Franky: Let us know if you change your mind.
Moviefan, let me know when you finally man up and admit that you backed NASA's numbers up until you started losing.

Any claims that NASA 'revised' the data from Moviefan are out and out lies.
From NASA:
Q. Do the raw data ever change?
A. The raw data always stays the same, except for occasional reported corrections or replacements of preliminary data from one source by reports obtained later from a more trusted source.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/FAQ.html

Just as any claims that NASA 'adjusted' the data only show Moviefan's ignorance.
NASA continually works on adjusting and refining the balancing of different measurements to create the best global measurement they can.
Claims that any one of these adjustments affected our bet on an 0.83ºC anomaly only shows Moviefan's ignorance of the way that NASA works.

Q. Does GISS do any data checking and alterations?
A. Yes. GISS applies semi-automatic quality control routines listing records that look unrealistic. After manual inspection, those data are either kept or rejected. GISS does make an adjustment to deal with potential artifacts associated with urban heat islands, whereby the long-term regional trend derived from rural stations is used instead of the trends from urban centers in the analysis.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/FAQ.html


Further, if Moviefan feels that NASA's changes are wrong, he is free to email them and show them the error of their ways.
Q. What can I do if I notice something odd?
A. If you think the problem is in the GISTEMP analysis, please let us know by email. If it concerns unrealistic looking station data, we will usually forward your note to GHCN or SCAR. If you know who provided that data, you may also contact that source directly. Artifacts do sometimes slip by the quality control checks at NCEI and GISS but can usually be fixed quickly.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/FAQ.html
 

Frankfooter

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Whine, whine, whine.
Poor little boy.

You picked NASA's numbers but when you started losing you had to start whining.
NASA always updates and continues to work on their methods, its called the scientific method.

You picked NASA, you can't whine and change your mind just because you lost the bet and just because NASA does what NASA has always done.


You lost the bet.
First book you need to buy is this one:
http://www.amazon.ca/The-Hockey-Stick-Climate-Wars/dp/0231152558

This was the bet:
If that's the chart you're saying will hit 0.83 at the end of 2015, we definitely have a bet.
And what do those numbers now read?

0.84ºC
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
You lost the bet.
Time to pay up.
Stop whining.
 

wilbur

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Jan 19, 2004
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Sounds like an episode of the flat earth society railing against the rounders....
If you think that they were arguing against each other, then you didn't bother to actually listen to what he had to say. Or maybe you don't want to bothered with facts. That's the issue with dogma and those who are dogmatic.

You are the very type of person they refer to, and left wingers can be as dogmatic as right wingers. They have hissyfits when someone dares to come up with something that doesn't fit the (their) narrative. It is the left wingers who usually resort to name calling and other childish invectives.

Corbyn reports that climate change has more to do with solar activity than anything else. Solar activity runs in cycles, and that correlates to sunspot activity. There is a well known 11 year sunspot cycle. There are longer cycles also. In the 8th century, they experienced global warming, so much so that the lack of North Atlantic ice allowed the Vikings to colonise Greenland and sail all the way to Newfoundland. Four centuries later, Greenland got too cold for agriculture, and the Viking presence then disappeared.... all due to climate change. Insect life produces more carbon dioxide than man made carbon emissions, not to mention volcanoes, geothermal activity, oceans, wetlands and the huge amounts of methane generated by livestock.

Climate change is very political. Climate scientists don't get the top jobs if they don't toe the current line. Corbyn doesn't have to cowtow to anybody, since he's self employed as a climatologist/forecaster. About 3 years ago, the UK Met forcasted a very wet summer, a consequence of global warming; it turned out that it was the hottest in recent memory. The reason was that the head of the UK Met, a political type, make it a policy that climatologists had to incorporate into their longer range forecasts the global warming factor. They were a laughing stock that year.
[h=1]"Forecast failure: how the Met Office lost touch with reality[/h][h=2]Ideology has corrupted a valuable British institution"[/h]http://www.spectator.co.uk/2013/07/whats-wrong-with-the-met-office/
 

wilbur

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"Worse was to come. Last November, the Labour peer Lord Donoughue tabled a written question asking whether the government considered the 0.8˚C rise in the average global temperature since 1880 to be ‘statistically significant’. Yes, came the reply. Douglas J. Keenan, a mathematician and former quant trader for Morgan Stanley, knew the answer was false. With Keenan’s help, Donoughue tabled a follow-up question. The Met Office refused to answer it, not once, but five times. Its refusal to clarify its stance left the energy minister, Baroness Verma, in an awkward position. Only then did it confirm that it had no basis for the claim"

http://www.spectator.co.uk/2013/07/w...he-met-office/
 

Frankfooter

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Apr 10, 2015
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Corbyn reports that climate change has more to do with solar activity than anything else.
Corbyn is quite wrong on the matter, solar activity has been very carefully studied and is only a minor forcing compared to anthropogenic forcings.
Corbyn doesn't have to cowtow to anybody
Corbyn's work won't stand real inspection, he's never published a paper where it is subject to real criticism.
Its looks close enough to a real theory to someone like you, but its really just a crock.

Its been carefully studied by legit science, nothing Corbyn has said isn't covered.
https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/tssts-2-4.html
 

Frankfooter

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From that post:
Regrettably, NASA's reporting standards got rather shaky along the way. In July, NASA announced that it was switching to a completely different data set than the one we bet on, due to some controversial changes to the sea surface temperature records provided by the NOAA.

Its not a 'completely different data set'.
That's a total lie, all they did was improve the way they used the data. They don't come up with the data, after all, that comes from weather stations, all they did was improve their use of the data that's coming in.
Which is something they are doing continually.

But poor whiny moviefan, he thinks that science should stand still and never revise their work for the better.

Too bad you lost the bet, loser, but whiny about standard NASA practices is particularly whiny when you chose NASA as the metric.
You lost the bet.

You have to read the Michael Mann book.
Second book to be decided.
 

PornAddict

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Aug 30, 2009
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From that post:



Its not a 'completely different data set'.
That's a total lie, all they did was improve the way they used the data. They don't come up with the data, after all, that comes from weather stations, all they did was improve their use of the data that's coming in.
Which is something they are doing continually.

But poor whiny moviefan, he thinks that science should stand still and never revise their work for the better.

Too bad you lost the bet, loser, but whiny about standard NASA practices is particularly whiny when you chose NASA as the metric.
You lost the bet.

You have to read the Michael Mann book.
Second book to be decided.
You are a retard! Man up on Honour your bet! You lost to MovieFan-2. According to terb polling the majority who voted said you lost the bet!!
 

Frankfooter

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Apr 10, 2015
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You are a retard! Man up on Honour your bet! You lost to MovieFan-2. According to terb polling the majority who voted said you lost the bet!!
The results of a TERB poll have nothing to do with NASA's 2015 global anomaly.
moviefan bet it wouldn't hit 0.83ºC, its now 0.84ºC and he's lost the bet.

End of debate.

This was the bet:
If that's the chart you're saying will hit 0.83 at the end of 2015, we definitely have a bet.
And what do those numbers now read?

0.84ºC
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

Moviefan lost.
 
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