25 Years Of Predicting The Global Warming ‘Tipping Point’

[Moviefan-2]

1- CO2 and solar influences increased the global temperature 1910-1940, it was not just 'natural variability'.

2- From 1940 - 1970 aerosols in the atmosphere slowed climate change, that is pollution and volcanoes, but only temporarily.
http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-cooling-mid-20th-century.htm

I see.

So, according to you, increases in man-made CO2 emissions can lead to the following results:

-- An increase in the Earth's temperature.

-- No change in the Earth's temperature.

-- A cooling of the Earth's temperature.

In other words, according to you, it is impossible to determine the effect that increases in man-made CO2 emissions will have on the Earth's temperature.

Got it.

In that case, why has the IPCC spent 25 years issuing reports that make bold predictions about how man-made CO2 emissions will affect the climate?

And why has the IPCC clearly stated that it is only the warming that occurred after 1950 that was driven by human activity?

And why did Michael Mann and so many other climate researchers spend years denying the pause in the 21st century?

And why do the computer-model projections have a 98 per cent failure rate?

(Don't bother spending time on the Skeptical Science propaganda site looking for answers. These are rhetorical questions.)

You really are claiming the red line in this graph is horizontal?

I am asserting as a statement of rather obvious fact that the trend line for most of the 21st century is horizontal.

A horizontal trend line means the temperatures are moving in a horizontal direction. It is not the same thing as a "horizontal line".

If you prefer to use NASA's language, you can refer to the "flattening" of the Earth's temperature over the past 15 years.

 

[Moviefan-2]

Let's do a quick review of some of the straw men that Frankfooter has used and the intellectual dishonesty behind his arguments.

-- I said the warming in the period from 1910 to 1940 was primarily driven by natural variants. Frankfooter responds by saying it is wrong to say the warming was "just" driven by natural variants.

-- NASA said there has been a "flattening" of the Earth's temperature in the past 15 years. Frankfooter responds by saying the line for the five-year mean isn't "flat."

-- I say the trend line for most of the 21st century has been horizontal. Frankfooter responds by saying it isn't a "horizontal line."

A clear pattern has emerged -- the constant misrepresentation of other people's words (including NASA's) so that he can pretend to refute things that were never said.

It's like arguing with someone from the Ministry of Truth.

Everyone can see that the trend line for the 21st century is not what was predicted. That's why the models have a 98 per cent failure rate.

I have no idea who Frankfooter thinks he's fooling.

 

[Moviefan-2]

You are cherry picking.
You just won't admit it.

There are only 2 dates you'll take of this bet, aren't there?
Doesn't that show how fucking lame your case is?
I can give you a whole ton of possible start dates, but your bet only has a small, tiny chance of working from 1995 or 2007.
That's the definition of cherry picking.

And you know what?
Even your 1995 bet stands a really good chance of losing.

You picked 1995 because it was a warm year.
0.43ºC anomaly according to NASA.
http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/

So in order to win the bet, all the temperature has to do is hit 0.83ºC anomaly for the year of 2015, correct?
Did you check the temperature lately?

Do you know what the anomaly was for March of this year?
0.85ºC
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201503

How about the year to date?
0.82ºC


I think I'll take you up on your cherry picked date, but lets up the payoff.
2 books each, winner chooses the books, loser has to read the book and review it here to prove they read it.

Deal?
Is the bet on?

We might get a bet, once you agree to use one chart for recording the results.

For example, your NASA chart that shows 1995 at 0.43 degrees Celsius put 2014 at 0.68 degrees in 2014: http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/

If that's the chart you're saying will hit 0.83 at the end of 2015, we definitely have a bet.

Ok bets on.
Using that NASA figure of 0.43ºC anomaly for 1995 and waiting for the 2015 NASA anomaly figures to come out.


Hey, did you hear about El Nino.
70% chance it continues past June.
Its gonna be a hot one this year.

Bookmark this page, loser.

Frankfooter is starting to remind me a little too much of Groggy, who tried to weasel out of a bet that he lost last year -- on this same subject -- by claiming he hadn't actually read the terms of the bet (I'm sure that excuse would fly in Vegas).

I have captured the terms of the bet in the quote above, to avoid any risk of Franky going back and trying to change his prediction with new edits. :thumb:

 

[Frankfooter]

I see.

So, according to you, increases in man-made CO2 emissions can lead to the following results:

-- An increase in the Earth's temperature.

Got it

I am asserting as a statement of rather obvious fact that the trend line for most of the 21st century is horizontal.

A horizontal trend line means the temperatures are moving in a horizontal direction. It is not the same thing as a "horizontal line".

If you prefer to use NASA's language, you can refer to the "flattening" of the Earth's temperature over the past 15 years.

Now at least you are trying to put dates to your claim.
But its still wrong.

Here are the numbers for the 21st century.
2000 - global anomaly of 0.41ºC
2014 - global anomaly of 0.68ºC

That's an increase of 0.27ºC over 14 years, right about on line with the IPCC projections.

You are spectacularly wrong.

Those are the dates you said where there was no warming.
You really need to find some better denier sites, or ones where they at least update their old bullshit with new bullshit every once in a while.

 

[Moviefan-2]

Now at least you are trying to put dates to your claim.
But its still wrong.

Here are the numbers for the 21st century.
2000 - global anomaly of 0.41ºC
2014 - global anomaly of 0.68ºC

That's an increase of 0.27ºC over 14 years, right about on line with the IPCC projections.

You are spectacularly wrong.

Those are the dates you said where there was no warming.
You really need to find some better denier sites, or ones where they at least update their old bullshit with new bullshit every once in a while.

Talk about cherry picking! Why not choose 1998 rather than 2000? That would give you a longer time frame to better assess the IPCC's predictions. :thumb:

2000 is no more representative of anything than 1998.

If you start at 2002 -- a year that is pretty consistent with the other temperatures for the 21st century -- you can see why NASA says there has been a "flattening" of the Earth's temperature.

 

[Frankfooter]

I have captured the terms of the bet in the quote above, to avoid any risk of Franky going back and trying to change his prediction with new edits. :thumb:

Why would I?
January 0.77ºC
February 0.82ºC
March 0.85ºC
April isn't out officially, but I hear its still about 0.77ºC, or the second warmest April ever on record.

You are going to lose this bet, feel free to keep posting about how you are going to lose.

 

[Frankfooter]

Talk about cherry picking. Why not choose 1998 rather than 2000 -- that would give you a longer time frame to better assess the IPCC's predictions. :thumb:
.

That's because you claimed this:

I am asserting as a statement of rather obvious fact that the trend line for most of the 21st century is horizontal.

All I did was check the numbers for the dates you made your claim with.
You are wrong, you should admit it.

 

[Moviefan-2]

That's because you claimed this:


All I did was check the numbers for the dates you made your claim with.
You are wrong, you should admit it.

You're saying the period from 2002 to 2014 doesn't capture "most" of the 21st century?

 

[Moviefan-2]

Why would I?
January 0.77ºC
February 0.82ºC
March 0.85ºC
April isn't out officially, but I hear its still about 0.77ºC, or the second warmest April ever on record.

You are going to lose this bet, feel free to keep posting about how you are going to lose.

I hate to be the bearer of bad news but you might want to take a look at NASA's numbers.

In case you've forgotten, the bet was on NASA's numbers, not the NOAA's.

(NASA shows the first four months of 2015 being only 0.02 degrees warmer than where we were at this time in 2010).

 

[Frankfooter]

You're saying the period from 2002 to 2014 doesn't capture "most" of the 21st century?

I'm saying that your claim, that there has been no warming in the 21st century, is spectacularly wrong.

Just admit that you were wrong.
Man up.

 

[Frankfooter]

I hate to be the bearer of bad news but you might want to take a look at NASA's numbers.

In case you've forgotten, the bet was on NASA's numbers, not the NOAA's.

(NASA shows the first four months of 2015 being only 0.02 degrees warmer than where we were at this time in 2010).

Link, please.

 

[K Douglas]

I'm saying that your claim, that there has been no warming in the 21st century, is spectacularly wrong.

Just admit that you were wrong.
Man up.

No it's spectacularly correct. There has been no significant warming since 1998. According to NASA/NOAA data in that year the temperature anomaly was 0.61, in 2014 it was 0.68. And this falls in the the margin of error of 0.2 (yes a margin of error of almost 1/3). Hardly an acceptable level of error, wouldn't you agree?

And not to mention that NASA/NOAA keeps moving the goalposts and manipulating the data making the 2000's seem warmer relative to previous years.

 

[FAST]

No it's spectacularly correct. There has been no significant warming since 1998. According to NASA/NOAA data in that year the temperature anomaly was 0.61, in 2014 it was 0.68. And this falls in the the margin of error of 0.2 (yes a margin of error of almost 1/3). Hardly an acceptable level of error, wouldn't you agree?

And not to mention that NASA/NOAA keeps moving the goalposts and manipulating the data making the 2000's seem warmer relative to previous years.

This is why the unemployable had to change their tactics from global warming to climate change,...couldn't sell the original anymore,...for obvious reasons.

FAST

 

[Frankfooter]

No it's spectacularly correct. There has been no significant warming since 1998. According to NASA/NOAA data in that year the temperature anomaly was 0.61, in 2014 it was 0.68. And this falls in the the margin of error of 0.2 (yes a margin of error of almost 1/3). Hardly an acceptable level of error, wouldn't you agree?

And not to mention that NASA/NOAA keeps moving the goalposts and manipulating the data making the 2000's seem warmer relative to previous years.

Cherry picking.
1997/8 was a super El Nino year, resulting in record warmth for the globe.

Your argument works only for that one year, not for 1994,1995, 1996, 1999, 2000...
I could go on but you won't get the point anyways.


Moviefan made a claim that there has been no warming in the 21st century (based off of out of date denier site info).

He should own up and admit he is wrong.

Here are the numbers for the 21st century.
2000 - global anomaly of 0.41ºC
2014 - global anomaly of 0.68ºC

That's an increase of 0.27ºC over 14 years, right about on line with the IPCC projections.

2014 was the warmest year on record.
March 2015 was the warmest March on record.
Its still going up.

 

[Moviefan-2]

Moviefan made a claim that there has been no warming in the 21st century (based off of out of date denier site info).

The satellite data -- which are considered to be more reliable -- show there has been no statistically significant warming since December 1996.

 

[Moviefan-2]

Cherry picking.
1997/8 was a super El Nino year, resulting in record warmth for the globe....

Here are the numbers for the 21st century.
2000 - global anomaly of 0.41ºC
2014 - global anomaly of 0.68ºC

That's an increase of 0.27ºC over 14 years, right about on line with the IPCC projections.

Now, that's funny!

Franky accuses K. Douglas of "cherry picking" for using 1998 as his starting year and then proceeds to use the year 2000 instead -- as if that is isn't cherry picking.

By the way, Mann and the IPCC predicted we would see skyrocketing increases from 1998 onwards. But we won't dwell on that.

 

[Frankfooter]

I am asserting as a statement of rather obvious fact that the trend line for most of the 21st century is horizontal.

A horizontal trend line means the temperatures are moving in a horizontal direction. It is not the same thing as a "horizontal line".

If you prefer to use NASA's language, you can refer to the "flattening" of the Earth's temperature over the past 15 years.

That's your claim.

Now, that's funny!

Franky accuses K. Douglas of "cherry picking" for using 1998 as his starting year and then proceeds to use the year 2000 instead -- as if that is isn't cherry picking.

Are you really such an idiot that you are calling my replying and debunking your spectacularly wrong claim, 'cherry picking'?
You made the claim, and now when I've proven that you don't know what the fuck you are talking about you try to say I'm 'cherry picking'?

Proving your claim wrong is not 'cherry picking'.

You should apologize and admit you are wrong.
Man up.


Here are the numbers for the 21st century.
2000 - global anomaly of 0.41ºC
2014 - global anomaly of 0.68ºC

That's an increase of 0.27ºC over 14 years, right about on line with the IPCC projections.

 

[Frankfooter]

Moviefan has run away since he's been shown to be wrong, but its time for an update.
April figures are out for global temp.
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201504

April was 0.74ºC, down a bit but still the 4th warmest April on record
Year to date is at 0.80ºC, or right about where I predicted it would be in the bet moviefan will lose.

 

[Moviefan-2]

Moviefan has run away since he's been shown to be wrong, but its time for an update.
April figures are out for global temp.
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201504

April was 0.74ºC, down a bit but still the 4th warmest April on record
Year to date is at 0.80ºC, or right about where I predicted it would be in the bet moviefan will lose.

Actually, NASA had April at 0.75 degrees Celsius.

Unfortunately, NASA only has the four-month average at 0.79 degrees Celsius (just 0.02 degrees higher than this time in 2010) and the 12-month average is 0.72 degrees Celsius -- a long way away from where you need it to be.

What's also noteworthy is that there hasn't been a record-breaking month yet in 2015. Every month has come in with a temperature that has been surpassed in previous years.

As for your intellectual dishonesty about the 21st century, let's agree on this:

There has been no warming in the 21st century that can be attributed to man-made CO2 emissions.

(That will cover your temperature increase from 2000 to 2002.)

Finally, we have a statement about the 21st century that you, me and K. Douglas can all agree on. :thumb:

 

[Frankfooter]

Actually, NASA had April at 0.75 degrees Celsius.

That's a difference of 0.01ºC from the NOAA, its negligible.
But give me a link for that anyways, I'm interested.

Unfortunately, NASA only has the four-month average at 0.79 degrees Celsius (just 0.02 degrees higher than this time in 2010) and the 12-month average is 0.72 degrees Celsius -- a long way away from where you need it to be.

That's again a difference of 0.01ºC from NOAA, again negligible. And its only 0.04ºC from where I need to be, again a negligible amount going into a moderate El Nino.

What's also noteworthy is that there hasn't been a record-breaking month yet in 2015. Every month has come in with a temperature that has been surpassed in previous years.

False.
March 2015 was the warmest March on record.
The year to date is the warmest on record.

As for your intellectual dishonesty about the 21st century, let's agree on this:

There has been no warming in the 21st century that can be attributed to man-made CO2 emissions.

I don't know why you keep repeating that after you've been shown to be wrong numerous times.
Are you really that stupid or are you really that dishonest?

The numbers:
Here are the numbers for the 21st century.
2000 - global anomaly of 0.41ºC
2014 - global anomaly of 0.68ºC

That's an increase of 0.27ºC over 14 years, right about on line with the IPCC projections.