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25 Years Of Predicting The Global Warming ‘Tipping Point’

Frankfooter

dangling member
Apr 10, 2015
84,097
19,111
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Now, we're getting somewhere.

But the IPCC prediction at that time was made in 1995, not 1996.

Therefore, the bet is from 1995 to 2015 -- you won't have to wait, as we'll know the winner by early 2016.

Do we have a bet?
Nope.
My terms are either:
1985 for 3 decades @ 0.2ºC increase average per decade
1986 for 3 decades @ 0.2ºC increase average per decade

or
1996 for 2 decades @ 0.2ºC increase average per decade


Why won't you take them?
Cherry picking issues?

If you think the IPCC work is crap, then it shouldn't matter in the least which date you take?
Why won't you take those dates?

Is it because of cherry picking, your argument only works on one or two years?

C'mon take the bet.
 

Moviefan-2

Court Jester
Oct 17, 2011
10,489
171
63
The IPCC report was released in 1995. The only way to make it fair and to avoid any concerns about "cherry picking" is to use 1995 as the starting date.

Otherwise, I might be more inclined to pick 1997 or 1998 as the starting dates.

But we can't cherry pick. The only way to make it fair is to pick 1995 as the starting date.

Do we have a bet?
 

Frankfooter

dangling member
Apr 10, 2015
84,097
19,111
113
The IPCC report was released in 1995. The only way to make it fair and to avoid any concerns about "cherry picking" is to use 1995 as the starting date.

Otherwise, I might be more inclined to pick 1997 or 1998 as the starting dates.

But we can't cherry pick. The only way to make it fair is to pick 1995 as the starting date.

Do we have a bet?
You are cherry picking.
You just won't admit it.

There are only 2 dates you'll take of this bet, aren't there?
Doesn't that show how fucking lame your case is?
I can give you a whole ton of possible start dates, but your bet only has a small, tiny chance of working from 1995 or 2007.
That's the definition of cherry picking.

And you know what?
Even your 1995 bet stands a really good chance of losing.

You picked 1995 because it was a warm year.
0.43ºC anomaly according to NASA.
http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/

So in order to win the bet, all the temperature has to do is hit 0.83ºC anomaly for the year of 2015, correct?
Did you check the temperature lately?

Do you know what the anomaly was for March of this year?
0.85ºC
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201503

How about the year to date?
0.82ºC


I think I'll take you up on your cherry picked date, but lets up the payoff.
2 books each, winner chooses the books, loser has to read the book and review it here to prove they read it.

Deal?
Is the bet on?
 

Frankfooter

dangling member
Apr 10, 2015
84,097
19,111
113
We might get a bet, once you agree to use one chart for recording the results.

For example, your NASA chart that shows 1995 at 0.43 degrees Celsius put 2014 at 0.68 degrees in 2014: http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/

If that's the chart you're saying will hit 0.83 at the end of 2015, we definitely have a bet.

Ok bets on.
Using that NASA figure of 0.43ºC anomaly for 1995 and waiting for the 2015 NASA anomaly figures to come out.


Hey, did you hear about El Nino.
70% chance it continues past June.
Its gonna be a hot one this year.

Bookmark this page, loser.
 

Occasionally

Active member
May 22, 2011
2,929
7
38
Even if it is true global climate is slight increasing every decade a tiny fraction of a degree, it's going to take a long time before anything big happens. And if something big happens everyone on this forum and currently on Earth will be long gone. Maybe everyone's great great great grandkids will experience something out of the norm.

What's funny is that so many so-called scientists can't even predict global temperature changes even after being given decades of time to prove their point.

It's like the weatherman who can't even call a daily forecast correct tomorrow or the day after despite all the fancy technology available doing the work for them. lol
 

Frankfooter

dangling member
Apr 10, 2015
84,097
19,111
113
Even if it is true global climate is slight increasing every decade a tiny fraction of a degree, it's going to take a long time before anything big happens. And if something big happens everyone on this forum and currently on Earth will be long gone. Maybe everyone's great great great grandkids will experience something out of the norm.

What's funny is that so many so-called scientists can't even predict global temperature changes even after being given decades of time to prove their point.

It's like the weatherman who can't even call a daily forecast correct tomorrow or the day after despite all the fancy technology available doing the work for them. lol
Not at all true.
39% of the US is in drought right now.
California is going through a dustbowl situation that will have major ramifications on food prices in the next while unless things drastically change, which isn't too likely.

So far the global temperature has been increasing just as the IPCC predicted it.
 

FAST

Banned
Mar 12, 2004
10,069
1
0
Not at all true.
39% of the US is in drought right now.
California is going through a dustbowl situation that will have major ramifications on food prices in the next while unless things drastically change, which isn't too likely.

The worst droughts in the history of the United States occurred during the 1930s and 1950s, periods of time known as 'Dust Bowl' years in which droughts lead to significant economic damages and social changes. In particular, relief and health agencies became overburdened and many local community banks had to close.

So what's your point,...???

FAST
 

Frankfooter

dangling member
Apr 10, 2015
84,097
19,111
113
The worst droughts in the history of the United States occurred during the 1930s and 1950s, periods of time known as 'Dust Bowl' years in which droughts lead to significant economic damages and social changes. In particular, relief and health agencies became overburdened and many local community banks had to close.

So what's your point,...???

FAST
This drought is worse then the dust bowl already, worst drought in 1000 years.
We just had the warmest year ever in California, combined with basically no snowpacks, which used to supply 1/3 of California's water. With the new warmer temperatures that might never happen again as it has in the past.
Climate Change Caused California Drought
http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/at-the-edge/2015/04/14/climate-change-and-the-california-drought


Our year to date global temp anomaly is still at 0.82ºC.
Looks like I'm still winning the bet.
 

FAST

Banned
Mar 12, 2004
10,069
1
0
This drought is worse then the dust bowl already, worst drought in 1000 years,....
And there you have it folks,...1000 years ago,...there was a recorded drought in California,...!!!

Thanks for that,...my best laugh today so far,...

In fact,...the worst drought in the US was in the 30's,...damn,...all those model "T" fords must have just spewed pollution,... to cause the WORST drought in US history,...

FAST
 
the same morons who tried to explain that cigarettes DON'T cause cancer , are the same morons who are being paid by big oil to say there is no climate change... look it up..ts virtually the same people and companies.. that tells me all i need to know..
Discussions about climate change should be dealt with in the same way that some sporting events are scored... toss out the high and the low scores, and average the remaining ones. Same here... toss out the lunatic fringe on either end, and you will be left with a compelling body of scientific work that clearly, and beyond doubt indicates where we are heading.

I'd love to spend the afternoon talking about this but frankly, those that deny this stuff can't be convinced otherwise by someone else. It would just make my brain explode.
 

Frankfooter

dangling member
Apr 10, 2015
84,097
19,111
113
And there you have it folks,...1000 years ago,...there was a recorded drought in California,...!!!

Thanks for that,...my best laugh today so far,...
If you thought that was funny, check out this ringer.
A recent paleoclimate study found that, while precipitation levels throughout the drought were extremely low, it was largely the remarkable, record-high temperatures that made this drought stand out as the worst to hit the area in 1,200 years.
http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/at-the-edge/2015/04/14/climate-change-and-the-california-drought

It must be difficult being wrong so often, but at least you are fast.
 

Frankfooter

dangling member
Apr 10, 2015
84,097
19,111
113
Discussions about climate change should be dealt with in the same way that some sporting events are scored... toss out the high and the low scores, and average the remaining ones. Same here... toss out the lunatic fringe on either end, and you will be left with a compelling body of scientific work that clearly, and beyond doubt indicates where we are heading.
Read the IPCC reports, that's exactly what they do.
They give the full range of possible changes given a full range of inputs to the system in the form of CO2.
There's no lunatic fringe on those reports, just solid science.
 

Frankfooter

dangling member
Apr 10, 2015
84,097
19,111
113
Maybe not. NASA has it lower and we did agree that we would use the NASA stats to decide the winner.

Also, the speculation so far is that April is down: http://davidappell.blogspot.ca/2015/04/estimated-giss-april-global-temperature.html
April might be a bit lower, but if you read the whole post you would have seen this:
The Reanalyzer shows the El Nino really gaining steam (so to speak), which suggests a likelihood of warmer months ahead:
Can we start setting the terms for confirmation that you've read the books once the bet is over?
I think weekly chapter summaries would be good, what about you?
 

FAST

Banned
Mar 12, 2004
10,069
1
0
If you thought that was funny, check out this ringer.

http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/at-the-edge/2015/04/14/climate-change-and-the-california-drought

It must be difficult being wrong so often, but at least you are fast.
The drought of the 30's in the US,...not just one state,...is well documented,...the one 1200 years ago,...not so much.

The worst drought in US history was NOT caused by co2 levels,...but for some reason,...the fringe experts are absolutely convinced that the current one is,...

Think about this,...if you are capable,...every recorded US drought was not caused by co2 levels,...but this one is,...WOW,...that's some strange logic,...but hey,...they are the experts,...even if self proclaimed.

Must be difficult being simple minded,...but you seem to be very good at it.

FAST
 
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