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25 Years Of Predicting The Global Warming ‘Tipping Point’

barnacler

Well-known member
May 13, 2013
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I mean, the whole global warming thing is incredibly suspicious, if you think about it. INVARIABLY the most vocal proponents of it are left-leaning types who are delighted at the controls on business and industry that it implies. it should be a calm, scientific debate, yet has instead devolved into a totally political fight along traditional left/right lines.
 

Frankfooter

dangling member
Apr 10, 2015
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I mean, the whole global warming thing is incredibly suspicious, if you think about it. INVARIABLY the most vocal proponents of it are left-leaning types who are delighted at the controls on business and industry that it implies. it should be a calm, scientific debate, yet has instead devolved into a totally political fight along traditional left/right lines.
The IPCC represents our total scientific understanding on climate change. It is neither run by or made up of, politicians.
The only 'contrarian's you hear about are largely quacks or lobbyists for the oil industry.
 

nobody123

serial onanist
Feb 1, 2012
3,568
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nowhere
it should be a calm, scientific debate, yet has instead devolved into a totally political fight along traditional left/right lines.
It was. The debate is loooooong over, and the overwhelming consensus among the scientific community is that man-made climate change is a reality of today. The left/right fight you are hearing now is the lobbyists and industry shills (and the extremists and loons they have hooked on side) somehow, against all reason, convincing altogether too many people that there is still a "debate" going on at all.
 

Carling

Banned
Apr 14, 2011
3,562
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the same morons who tried to explain that cigarettes DON'T cause cancer , are the same morons who are being paid by big oil to say there is no climate change... look it up..ts virtually the same people and companies.. that tells me all i need to know..
 

rhuarc29

Well-known member
Apr 15, 2009
9,636
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I don't think you understand what those predictions are saying. They're not saying the world climate will collapse at X date. They're saying that if something isn't done by X date, the climate change will be catastrophic in the future as a direct result of our actions.

We won't know if those predictions are correct until the shit hits the fan and it can be linked to our actions.
 

GPIDEAL

Prolific User
Jun 27, 2010
23,360
11
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The IPCC represents our total scientific understanding on climate change. It is neither run by or made up of, politicians.
The only 'contrarian's you hear about are largely quacks or lobbyists for the oil industry.
It was. The debate is loooooong over, and the overwhelming consensus among the scientific community is that man-made climate change is a reality of today. The left/right fight you are hearing now is the lobbyists and industry shills (and the extremists and loons they have hooked on side) somehow, against all reason, convincing altogether too many people that there is still a "debate" going on at all.
I mean, the whole global warming thing is incredibly suspicious, if you think about it. INVARIABLY the most vocal proponents of it are left-leaning types who are delighted at the controls on business and industry that it implies. it should be a calm, scientific debate, yet has instead devolved into a totally political fight along traditional left/right lines.

Thank you Frankfooter and nobody123. It isn't just left wingers. It's 95% of scientists.
 

Frankfooter

dangling member
Apr 10, 2015
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We hit 400ppm CO2 globally today and 2014 was the globally warmest year on record.

Those deniers should buy some property in California.
Put your money where your mouth is and buy some chunk of desert smug in your denier knowledge that the California drought is a hoax put on by scientists.
 

Moviefan-2

Court Jester
Oct 17, 2011
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The IPCC represents our total scientific understanding on climate change. It is neither run by or made up of, politicians.
In fact, the IPCC is led by of environmental zealots, such as former chair Rajendra Pachauri, who said eco-activism wasn't just his mission, it was his religion and his dharma.

https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/ar5/150224_pachauri_letter.pdf

Furthermore, the final content in the Summary for Policy Makers -- the only part that most people read -- is decided by political representatives for governments.

http://www.theguardian.com/environm...reports-diluted-protect-fossil-fuel-interests


... and 2014 was the globally warmest year on record.
Not likely. The actual data released by the NOAA and NASA showed there hasn't been any warming since 2005 (and the satellite data, which are considered the most reliable, show there hasn't been any statistically significant warming for more than 18 years).

What's particularly significant is that Gavin Schmidt of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies had to publicly acknowledge that NASA's news release about 2014 being the warmest year was a lie.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...d-2014-warmest-year-record-38-sure-right.html
 

basketcase

Well-known member
Dec 29, 2005
60,340
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...
Not likely. The actual data released by the NOAA and NASA showed there hasn't been any warming since 2005 (and the satellite data, which are considered the most reliable, show there hasn't been any statistically significant warming for more than 18 years)....
Funny you claimed this because we already discussed the data. 2014 WAS the warmest year. You argued that the margin of error made it insignificant then backed of when told that even at the low end of the margin would have made it 'only' the second or third warmest.
 

Moviefan-2

Court Jester
Oct 17, 2011
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Funny you claimed this because we already discussed the data. 2014 WAS the warmest year. You argued that the margin of error made it insignificant then backed of when told that even at the low end of the margin would have made it 'only' the second or third warmest.
Actually, what I wrote was that you don't understand what a margin of error is. I wouldn't characterize that response as my having "backed off."

Schmidt has admitted that NASA was lying and that the stats show 2014 was most probably not the warmest year: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...d-2014-warmest-year-record-38-sure-right.html

The fact that NASA was caught lying should certainly raise some doubts among the "science is settled" crowd.

As should the one line in the seventh paragraph of the NASA news release (the most honest statement in the whole thing) that spoke about the "flattening" of the Earth's temperature over the past 15 years:

http://www.nasa.gov/press/2015/january/nasa-determines-2014-warmest-year-in-modern-record
 

Frankfooter

dangling member
Apr 10, 2015
84,245
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Actually, what I wrote was that you don't understand what a margin of error is. I wouldn't characterize that response as my having "backed off."
You are an idiot.
Sorry, but you are.

http://www.nasa.gov/press/2015/january/nasa-determines-2014-warmest-year-in-modern-record

Good science gives margins of errors in their work, the IPCC has included margins of error in all their predictions. Its the way science works.
Only the lobbyist deniers say they are '100%' sure, and that's only because they are paid to say so.

The claim is there on the NASA website, including all links to all the data on that same page.
That's about as honest as you can get.
 

Frankfooter

dangling member
Apr 10, 2015
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In fact, the IPCC is led by of environmental zealots, such as former chair Rajendra Pachauri, who said eco-activism wasn't just his mission, it was his religion and his dharma.
Eco-activism is rooted in science, as opposed to your creationist deniers.

You totally misunderstand the nature and function of the IPCC. The IPCC represents and amalgamates the total sum of legit work on climate change, using work from scientists from over 100 countries. They are mandated to do the research and not the politics or advocacy. That's one of the things that keeps their work unbiased. They present summaries of their findings to politicians, who are then supposed to take the information from the findings and adapt policy as they see fit. The only 'politicizing' that happened with the summary was politicians trying to water down the findings to make it more palatable, wrongheaded, but that's politicians.

Just read the reports, that's the science.
Well researched, work from all corners of the globe representing the sum of what we really know about the matter.

Your creationist deniers haven't a clue, can't write a legit paper, can't come up with a believable theory of their own and do work that is so shoddy it only fools people like you.
 

Moviefan-2

Court Jester
Oct 17, 2011
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You are an idiot.
Sorry, but you are.

http://www.nasa.gov/press/2015/january/nasa-determines-2014-warmest-year-in-modern-record

Good science gives margins of errors in their work, the IPCC has included margins of error in all their predictions. Its the way science works.
Only the lobbyist deniers say they are '100%' sure, and that's only because they are paid to say so.

The claim is there on the NASA website, including all links to all the data on that same page.
That's about as honest as you can get.
Your comments are pure idiocy.

You don't even know what Basketcase and I were debating yet you weigh in with comments that are fundamentally stupid.

I never said anything about requiring science to be "100% sure." As in this and other threads, stop commenting on things you know nothing about.

Eco-activism is rooted in science, as opposed to your creationist deniers.

You totally misunderstand the nature and function of the IPCC. The IPCC represents and amalgamates the total sum of legit work on climate change, using work from scientists from over 100 countries. They are mandated to do the research and not the politics or advocacy. That's one of the things that keeps their work unbiased. They present summaries of their findings to politicians, who are then supposed to take the information from the findings and adapt policy as they see fit. The only 'politicizing' that happened with the summary was politicians trying to water down the findings to make it more palatable, wrongheaded, but that's politicians.

Just read the reports, that's the science.
Well researched, work from all corners of the globe representing the sum of what we really know about the matter.

Your creationist deniers haven't a clue, can't write a legit paper, can't come up with a believable theory of their own and do work that is so shoddy it only fools people like you.
More idiocy.

I'm not a creationist. And the suggestion that the IPCC is "unbiased" is a fairy tale.

Why did the IPCC win the Nobel Peace Prize? Not for its science -- for its advocacy work. It's rather interesting that it would be awarded a Nobel Prize for something you insist it isn't doing.

Meanwhile, when I have more time, I'll go through the NASA news release in more detail and show how it actually confirms what the original post in this thread was saying. In fact, Frankfooter's comments about the 10 warmest years being recorded in this century come from the information that confirms it as well, though I suspect Franky doesn't know it.
 

Frankfooter

dangling member
Apr 10, 2015
84,245
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I'm not a creationist. And the suggestion that the IPCC is "unbiased" is a fairy tale.

Why did the IPCC win the Nobel Peace Prize? Not for its science -- for its advocacy work. It's rather interesting that it would be awarded a Nobel Prize for something you insist it isn't doing.

Meanwhile, when I have more time, I'll go through the NASA news release in more detail and show how it actually confirms what the original post in this thread was saying. In fact, Frankfooter's comments about the 10 warmest years being recorded in this century come from the information that confirms it as well, though I suspect Franky doesn't know it.
The last denier source used here was a creationist wingnut, I wasn't accusing you of being creationist. Sorry if it looked that way.

The Nobel for the IPCC reads:
The Nobel Peace Prize 2007 was awarded jointly to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Albert Arnold (Al) Gore Jr. "for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change"
http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/peace/laureates/2007/

That's not advocacy, that's education. Quite different.

And more details from a legit science organization, NOAA.
Global Highlights

The year 2014 was the warmest year across global land and ocean surfaces since records began in 1880. The annually-averaged temperature was 0.69°C (1.24°F) above the 20th century average of 13.9°C (57.0°F), easily breaking the previous records of 2005 and 2010 by 0.04°C (0.07°F). This also marks the 38th consecutive year (since 1977) that the yearly global temperature was above average. Including 2014, 9 of the 10 warmest years in the 135-year period of record have occurred in the 21st century. 1998 currently ranks as the fourth warmest year on record.

The 2014 global average ocean temperature was also record high, at 0.57°C (1.03°F) above the 20th century average of 16.1°C (60.9°F), breaking the previous records of 1998 and 2003 by 0.05°C (0.09°F). Notably, ENSO-neutral conditions were present during all of 2014.

The 2014 global average land surface temperature was 1.00°C (1.80°F) above the 20th century average of 8.5°C (47.3°F), the fourth highest annual value on record.


9 of 10 of the warmest years on record have occurred this century and you still try to claim nothing is happening?
 

Frankfooter

dangling member
Apr 10, 2015
84,245
19,158
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Fucking scientists, what do they know?
Is that Moviefan or basketcase in the video, can't tell with all the makeup?


Hey, we can even up the numbers in the arguments.
13 (or 14, depending on which stats you use) of the l5 warmest years on record have all occurred in the last 15 years.

What are the odds of that happening without climate change?
There is less than a 1-in-27 million chance that Earth's record hot streak is natural
http://mashable.com/2015/01/16/2014-earth-warmest-year-not-random/

Who's willing to lay some money on the table with those odds?
 

Carling

Banned
Apr 14, 2011
3,562
1
0
Is that Moviefan or basketcase in the video, can't tell with all the makeup?


Hey, we can even up the numbers in the arguments.
13 (or 14, depending on which stats you use) of the l5 warmest years on record have all occurred in the last 15 years.

What are the odds of that happening without climate change?

http://mashable.com/2015/01/16/2014-earth-warmest-year-not-random/

Who's willing to lay some money on the table with those odds?
lol..i know who's willing to play those odds ..dumbasses..or as i call them Conservatives
 

Moviefan-2

Court Jester
Oct 17, 2011
10,489
171
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The last denier source used here was a creationist wingnut, I wasn't accusing you of being creationist. Sorry if it looked that way.
Actually, I'm the one who should apologize on this point. I misread your "creationist" post. Sorry about that.

The Nobel for the IPCC reads:

"The Nobel Peace Prize 2007 was awarded jointly to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Albert Arnold (Al) Gore Jr. "for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change"

That's not advocacy, that's education. Quite different.
Laying the foundation for measures to counteract what the IPCC says is occurring is advocacy. Furthermore, the IPCC has published reports where it has specifically called for policy reforms -- that's advocacy.

lol..i know who's willing to play those odds ....
I'll take the bet. Those numbers don't mean anything.

I'll stick with the NASA release rather than the NOAA one because I'm more familiar with its content. But the principles are the exact same.

We'll start with some background:

In the last 150 years, there have been three periods of warming that have led to the slight overall increase in the world's temperature.

Two of those periods occurred at times when the burning of fossil fuels was clearly not the driving factor -- during a 20-year period in the late 19th century, and a similar 20-year period in the early part of the 20th century.

The most recent warming period occurred during the latter part of the 20th century -- roughly from the late 1970s to the late 1990s. That is the only period where there appears to be a correlation between the burning of fossil fuels and the Earth's temperature.

However, since that time, there has been a "flattening" of the Earth's temperature, as NASA says. NASA and the IPCC say the flattening has occurred for about 15 years. The satellite data used by the Met Office in the U.K. and others show it has been for a period of more than 18 years.

Since the peak period in about the late 1990s, there has been a plateau and the Earth's temperature has remained at about the same record height (from when reporting began) from the late 1990s. Not surprisingly, then, most of the years where that same plateau level has been recorded have been post-2000.

But here's the point: Those 10 years cited in the NASA release aren't citing increasing temperatures. It's pretty much the same temperature being measured again and again in different years. As the NASA release says, the long-range trend has actually been "flattening" over the past 15 years.

That's despite the fact there have been huge increases in man-made CO2 emissions, which the computer models predicted would send the Earth's temperature skyrocketing upwards.

The skyrocketing temperatures never materialized. The computer-model predictions have been spectacularly wrong (the University of Hamburg said more than 98 per cent of the models failed to predict the current trends in temperatures).

There is no evidence that man-made CO2 emissions play a significant role in affecting the climate. Certainly, the evidence doesn't support the hypothesis that man-made CO2 emissions are a primary driver of warming.
 

Frankfooter

dangling member
Apr 10, 2015
84,245
19,158
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But here's the point: Those 10 years cited in the NASA release aren't citing increasing temperatures. It's pretty much the same temperature being measured again and again in different years. As the NASA release says, the long-range trend has actually been "flattening" over the past 15 years.
Wrong.

As posted before, 13 of the last 15 warmest years have been in this century.
How do you look at this chart and honestly say that temperature is not going up?


 

Moviefan-2

Court Jester
Oct 17, 2011
10,489
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Wrong.

As posted before, 13 of the last 15 warmest years have been in this century.
Fine. Let's say 13 of the last 15 warmest years have been in this century.

The point remains the same. The Earth's temperature has plateaued from about the late 1990s and it is pretty much the same temperature that is being repeated year after year after year.

It's not me saying the temperature has plateaued. The Met Office, the IPCC and NASA have all said there hasn't been any statistically significant increase for about 15 to 18 years.
 
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