Turkey downs Russian plane over Syria

[Promo]

Russia doesn't have the military muscle to take on Turkey. Turkey isn't Georgia or Ukraine. Turkish military has better weapons then Russia does.

Fuji, I think you made that up. Can you support your statement?

The Russian standing armed forces are 2X larger, the reservers are 20X larger, Russia has 3.5X as many combat aircraft, 3X as many helicopters, 4X as many tanks (20X according to Wikipedia), 6X as much artillery, 3X larger navy, 5X supply vehicles and 3.5X larger military budget
Russian special forces are considered among the best in the world are are battle proven
Most of the Russian's standing army have live combat experience
Turkey has only 354 modern tanks (Leopard 2) and most of their tanks are M60 and M48 which are 50s and 60s vintage. Russia has 4100 modern tanks (T90 and T80) and 8700 semi-modern T72.
Russian APCs are as good as American APCs and are more heavily armed and faster and have been proven in the region. Turkey APCs are home-grown and less tested in live combat
Russia and Turkey soldier carried weapons (rifles, machine guns) are equivalent (Turkey uses a AK47 variant). Russian infantry platoons normally carry mortars and grenade launchers and are better equipped for day-to-day combat, Turkey uses specialized platoons.
Russia has a significant anti-aircraft capability within the army including soldier launched and self-propelled weapons - I'm sure Turkey does, but I couldn't find references quickly
Turkey fighters consist of 250 F16 and 47 Phantom II. Phanton II are also used for ground attack. Russian air force is SUPERIOR by every possible measure! Turkey has very little strike, ground attack and close-combat capabilities, none of it modern.
Russia has 4500 nukes to Turkey's 0. Turkey is believed to host 60 American weapons.
Only other major variable is leadership and desire to fight. Not my area of expertise and I would not want to pick a fight with either country, but the Russians have more experience and a crazier leader.


http://www.globalfirepower.com/coun...ountry1=turkey&country2=russia&Submit=COMPARE
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_equipment_of_Turkey
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Russian_Ground_Forces

 

[Aardvark154]

I disagree completely. The Russians have been intentionally provocating NATO all around Europe. England and the Baltic states have been chasing out Russians infringing over airspace with ever increasing frequency. Putin has been embolden with his successes in Ukraine and Georgia which like Hitler has seen the opposition melt away from confrontation. The reasons the jets have been so close to Turkey is not in their stated mission against ISIS but their mission against the Kurds who oppose Assad and are also fighting ISIS. Turkey has stood firm against Putnin and I hope NATO backs him up. Someone needs to draw a line in the sand for Putin and enforce it.

Which is of course your right.

I'm not saying that Russia has been a good neighbor of recent years. But there is a significant and highly important difference between a Russian warplane coming off the Black Sea heading for Ankara, or attempting to overfly Scotland from Aberdeen to Rùm, and a Russia warplane overflying a very narrow protruding piece of Turkish territory surrounded on three sides by Syria in an incursion which is reported to have lasted for seconds and almost certainly for less than two minutes before exiting Turkish airspace.

 

[Aardvark154]

The shit is going to hit the fan!

I profoundly hope that calmer heads on both sides will prevail. It would be shear lunacy to be dragged over the cliff into World War III over something so ridiculously petty as this.

 

[LickRus]

I think this is going to play itself out with nothing much happening. Turkey has been going backwards, they had a secular government and now its becoming Islamist the egomanic president is creating problems.

The video shows the body of the pilot, the Islamist scum around him claim to have killed him and as usual they're screaming Allah Uakbar like pigs. There was no reason to down the plane... Erdogan is showing off .

https://www.rt.com/news/323281-russian-pilots-killed-turkmen/

 

[nottyboi]

Russia doesn't have the military muscle to take on Turkey. Turkey isn't Georgia or Ukraine. Turkish military has better weapons then Russia does.

If they provide weapons and support to the Kurdish insurgents in Turkey then what. Already the Turks have a devil of a time with them. With a massive influx of Russian support Turkey would be in flames. Also they can hit a wide variety of Turkish targets with cruise missiles and Turkey could not really retaliate. Unless they want to start a nuclear war. But Putin is a rational actor and he won't panic. I suspect he will make them stew for a long time, and when they do react it will be in a very underhanded and painful way. If I was a member of the Turkish ruling class I would be nervous about getting on a private jet anytime soon.

 

[nottyboi]

Russian entry into Turkish airspace lasted 'seconds': U.S. official
http://news.yahoo.com/russian-entry-turkish-airspace-lasted-seconds-u-official-164618732.html

If the US is saying this you know the die is already cut. NATO is not gonna back Turkey on this one. In fact there are many NATO countries that actually are trying to normalize relations with Russia like France and Germany. There is NO WAY Merkel and Hollande are gonna risk ANYTHING for the Turks. They are a token muslim member in NATO and now they are gonna find out what that means.

 

[nottyboi]

Unless it is a passenger jet?

Are you talking about the one the Americans shot down or the one that was shot down over Ukraine. In both cases unintentional no? No question about intent here when you warn, and shoot down with an AAM. The Turks murdered a Russian pilot in a premeditated act. Of that there is no question. Whatever you think about the Russians and some of the friction they have, I in NO WAY consider them the "enemy" and it is really sad when a pilot who is fighting the same enemy that threatens people in the west is killed by some douchebag terror funding muslim state.

 

[Aardvark154]

From a somewhat more pro-Turkish perspective some comments from Agence France-Presse

Tensions were already high as Turkey had complained previously of Russian incursions into its airspace in October and NATO had warned Russia to stay away from the border.

Keir Giles, an associate fellow at Chatham House think tank in London said: "Russia knew exactly what the potential risks could be if its aircraft did stray into somewhere Turkey did not want it to be. . .It's completely different to other cases in Northern Europe where it's hard to tell if Russia is being careless or deliberately provocative." But he added "It's in neither side's interest to escalate this problem at the moment."

Daragh McDowell, principal analyst on Europe and Central Asia for risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft said: "The Kremlin will want to minimise the adverse publicity arising from combat or other losses in terms of the Russian domestic audience". . ."Turkish President (Recep Tayyip) Erdogan and his government have been extremely annoyed at Russia's policy in Syria generally, as well as routine violations of Turkish airspace by Russian warplanes. . . The Turks may be happy to use this as an excuse to adopt a more confrontational footing towards Moscow."

For Jean-Claude Allard, a former general and head of research of the Paris-based Institut de Relations Internationales et Stratégiques, the incident indicates the reluctance of Turkey to join any international efforts to combat the Islamic State group in Syria. "This gesture by the Turks seems to be a clear message they do not want to enter the coalition" against IS. . .There are a lot of things that Russia could do to retaliate against Turkey if it wished to, including economic and diplomatic means. But the very clear Turkish warnings and its consistent policy make it difficult for Russia to claim that this is an unreasonable response."

But Alan Mendoza, executive director of the Henry Jackson Society, said the incident signals the potential for the conflict taking on an ever more international dimension. "Russia's unilateral actions and aggressive posture means accidental or deliberate clashes with Western and NATO forces could now occur. . .Whether Russia chooses to escalate or de-escalate with its response to today's incident will be pivotal to the prospects of conflict extension now."

 

[Aardvark154]

Unless it is a passenger jet?

Are you talking about the one the Americans shot down or the one that was shot down over Ukraine.

Although it was under the previous regime don't forget Korean Airlines Flight 7.

 

[nottyboi]

Although it was under the previous regime don't forget Korean Airlines Flight 7.

That one is quite murky the Americans also had an intelligence plane that was using the KAL plane to mask its radar signature.... a lot about that tragic incident is part of the cloak and dagger climate of the cold war. Back then both sides would regularly test each others air defence. The US still does this with China and Russia, and Russia has recently started it again after a loooooong pause.

 

[eznutz]

Russia Escalates: Suspends Military Cooperation With Turkey, Moves Warship Off Coast To "Destroy Any Threats To Russian Planes"
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-...eration-turkey-moves-warship-coast-destroy-an

 

[nottyboi]

Russia Escalates: Suspends Military Cooperation With Turkey, Moves Warship Off Coast To "Destroy Any Threats To Russian Planes"
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-...eration-turkey-moves-warship-coast-destroy-an

This is just the opening moves. Turkey is gonna pay big time for this. Putins has no choice. The Turks have cornered him and that is a very dangerous thing to do.

 

[LickRus]

A radar track of the Su-24's path as you can see it overflew a projecting 'peninsula' of Turkish territory jutting into Syria. It is not like the aircraft was heading 'hell-for-leather' towards Ankara.

Now it is also true, although tangential to the major issue, that there are no Daesh forces anywhere near where this occurred. Then again it is reported that the supposedly "Democratic Opposition" forces were shouting Allahu Akbar, and shot down a Russian SAR helicopter.

The space they entered according to the radar is 2 miles long. If the jet is flying 600 mph it would take seconds, how did they warn them over a period of 5 minutes?

 

[nottyboi]

The space they entered according to the radar is 2 miles long. If the jet is flying 600 mph it would take seconds, how did they warn them over a period of 5 minutes?

This is looking pretty fishy, the turks are just part of the Islamist plague that somehow obtained NATO membership when they were ruled by a more moderate govt. That needs to be reassessed. You can bet the Russians are now gonna support the PKK to keep the Turks busy while they take care of business in Syria.

 

[Aardvark154]

The space they entered according to the radar is 2 miles long. If the jet is flying 600 mph it would take seconds, how did they warn them over a period of 5 minutes?

I was just going to post about this. I'd calculate that the distance crossed was less than 4.5 km or 2.8 miles. Even at the ridiculously slow speed of 350 kts, they would have been in and out of Turkish airspace in less than 30 seconds at 600 kts in just under 18 seconds.

 

[Aardvark154]

Russia Escalates: Suspends Military Cooperation With Turkey, Moves Warship Off Coast To "Destroy Any Threats To Russian Planes"
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-...eration-turkey-moves-warship-coast-destroy-an

FWIW, the Cruiser Moskva is the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet.

This is not good, not good at all. Further to top it off the Russians have a S-400 Триумф (Triumph) (NATO SA-21 Growler) anti-aircraft missile battery in Latakaia which can hit high altitude aircraft most of the way to Izmir.

 

[nottyboi]

Nothing says peace on earth and goodwill towards men like a few nuclear missiles flying all over the globe.

Well it will be pretty peaceful after.

 

[jcpro]

I was just going to post about this. I'd calculate that the distance crossed was less than 4.5 km or 2.8 miles. Even at the ridiculously slow speed of 350 kts, they would have been in and out of Turkish airspace in less than 30 seconds at 600 kts in just under 18 seconds.

The Turks decided to send a message to the Russians. And the message is "back off". It probably means that the bombing is having an effect. NATO better restrain Turkey before Putin gets really pissed off.

 

[whitewaterguy]

Well it will be pretty peaceful after.

The inevitable apocalypse might be arriving sooner than later...how's everyone preparing for it...here are my suggestions;

1. If you are in an urban area you're fucked unless you have an out of town destination..so get on that
2. Access to an atv or Wrangler 4x4 or both with a winch
3. Firearms and ammo
4. Generator
5. Chainsaw
6. Stash of fuel
7. Good supply of canned goods
8. Binoculars
9 fire starter materials
10. A canine friend
11. Condoms for any sp you might wish to share your hideout with..best of luck

 

[jcpro]

The inevitable apocalypse might be arriving sooner than later...how's everyone preparing for it...here are my suggestions;

1. If you are in an urban area you're fucked unless you have an out of town destination..so get on that
2. Access to an atv or Wrangler 4x4 or both with a winch
3. Firearms and ammo
4. Generator
5. Chainsaw
6. Stash of fuel
7. Good supply of canned goods
8. Binoculars
9 fire starter materials
10. A canine friend
11. Condoms for any sp you might wish to share your hideout with..best of luck

Seriously? You want to survive a nuclear holocaust? I would prefer to be vaporized.