415000 years of temperature change.....true or false?

[Frankfooter]

The margin of error means any one of 2005, 2010 or 2014 could have been the warmest year. NASA's news release with the definitive statement about 2014 was untrue, as NASA had no evidence to support such a statement. That means NASA was lying.

And I remain unconvinced that an organization that lies about such things is spending tax dollars wisely.

Next on your hit list:
CBC!!!!!!!!

Yes, moviefan has noted that CBC has ranked the political parties according to polls and also noted that sometimes the difference is similar to the margin of error (though noted at CBC as it is noted at NASA). Therefore moviefan is accusing CBC of lying about polls!

Next, after this horror of horrors, moviefan will take on meteorologists, who constantly predict weather knowing full well that they have a very large margin of error.
Oh, the liars!!!!!

After this, moviefan will take on Mike Holmes, carefully measure each reno to make sure that each build is exactly accurate, lest he to gets accused of lying!
Oh, the liars!!!!


I'd go on, but I'm getting bored.
Really, you are an idiot to call this lying when NASA themselves noted the margin of error.

NASA made the best measurements they could and then ranked the years according to those measurements.
Calling it lying is one of your more idiotic claims.
And that's impressive on its own.

 

[Moviefan-2]

Really, you are an idiot to call this lying when NASA themselves noted the margin of error.

Gotcha!

Here's the Jan. 16 news release from NASA: https://www.nasa.gov/press/2015/january/nasa-determines-2014-warmest-year-in-modern-record.

It doesn't say anything about the margin of error or the fact that 2014 was statistically no different than 2005 or 2010.

So, now we're agreed that NASA was lying in its news release.

I repeat: In my view, an organization that lies in this manner isn't spending taxpayers' dollars wisely.

 

[Frankfooter]

Gotcha!

Here's the Jan. 16 news release from NASA: https://www.nasa.gov/press/2015/january/nasa-determines-2014-warmest-year-in-modern-record.

It doesn't say anything about the margin of error or the fact that 2014 was statistically no different than 2005 or 2010.

They say this on the press release:

The result is an estimate of the global average temperature difference from a baseline period of 1951 to 1980.

Even if there is a margin of error its not lying to rank them.
Statistically, the odds are that the ranking is correct, even with error bars or margin of errors.

For you to accuse them of lying shows you know little about stats.
Its ridiculous.


Though on the positive side you now admit that the 3 warmest years on record (not including this year) all happened within the last 10 years.
To admit that then claim that warming has stopped is even more ridiculous.

 

[Moviefan-2]

Statistically, the odds are that the ranking is correct, even with error bars or margin of errors.

Bullshit. You don't know what you're talking about (the "baseline" statement -- which you still don't understand -- has nothing to do with the margin of error). The differences between the three years were far too minuscule to allow for any rankings.

Furthermore, there was nothing in the news release that even alerted readers to the fact that 2005, 2010 and 2014 were all statistically the same.

The news release was lying.

I repeat: An organization that lies in this manner is not spending taxpayers' dollars wisely.

 

[**Sophie**]

I don't know but holy fuck was it hot out today!!!! Lol

 

[basketcase]

Wrong.

From the Daily Mail:



http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-year-record-38-sure-right.html#ixzz3l0SRhV00

The margin of error means any one of 2005, 2010 or 2014 could have been the warmest year. NASA's news release with the definitive statement about 2014 was untrue, as NASA had no evidence to support such a statement. That means NASA was lying.

And I remain unconvinced that an organization that lies about such things is spending tax dollars wisely.

1) Oh no, 2014 was only one of the hottest years, not THE hottest? Guess we have nothing to worry about.

2) Margin of error or not, the mean value for 2014 was higher than the mean value of 2010 or 2005.

3) And once again you say that scientists are lying (but I'm sure you have an excuse as to why "That means NASA was lying" isn't really accusing them of lying). It's strange that every scientific organization that you disagree with gets accused of lying.

 

[FAST]

Even if there is a margin of error its not lying to rank them.
Statistically, the odds are that the ranking is correct, even with error bars or margin of errors.

For you to accuse them of lying shows you know little about stats.
Its ridiculous.


Though on the positive side you now admit that the 3 warmest years on record (not including this year) all happened within the last 10 years.
To admit that then claim that warming has stopped is even more ridiculous.

You continue to demonstrate just how much of a weasel you are,...

Just how the hell can you rank something when the margin of error makes it impossible to rank,...to do so,...is a bold face lie,...but of course you would be comfortable with that.

So now you switched your BS,...to state that the earth has not set records in the last two years,...but in the last ten years.

Because it is obvious that the natural warming trend is actually pausing,...hence you don't use the last two years in you BS anymore,...

You really missed your calling,...if you had an education,...you make an excellent IPCC climate scientist.

FAST

 

[Moviefan-2]

1) Oh no, 2014 was only one of the hottest years, not THE hottest? Guess we have nothing to worry about.

2) Margin of error or not, the mean value for 2014 was higher than the mean value of 2010 or 2005.

3) And once again you say that scientists are lying (but I'm sure you have an excuse as to why "That means NASA was lying" isn't really accusing them of lying). It's strange that every scientific organization that you disagree with gets accused of lying.

Actually, it was Gavin Schmidt, the director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, who admitted that NASA was lying.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-year-record-38-sure-right.html#ixzz3l0SRhV00

I repeat: I'm not convinced that an organization that is on record as admitting that it lies in this manner is spending taxpayers' dollars wisely.

 

[Moviefan-2]

Margin of error or not, the mean value for 2014 was higher than the mean value of 2010 or 2005.

Yeah, I'm sure that's what the news release was trying to say.

The real news was that 2014 was no warmer than 2005. But I guess that level of honesty wouldn't have been sufficiently scary. That type of honesty certainly wouldn't have pleased the Obama administration.

 

[basketcase]

Actually, it was Gavin Schmidt, the director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, who admitted that NASA was lying.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-year-record-38-sure-right.html#ixzz3l0SRhV00

I repeat: I'm not convinced that an organization that is on record as admitting that it lies in this manner is spending taxpayers' dollars wisely.

You're as bad as groggy in what you consider lies.

The mean for 2014 was the highest on record, higher than the measured mean for 2010 or 2005. That is a fact.
Yes, the measurements for 2014 have a margin of error. So do the measurements for 2005 and 2010.

And even if 2014 was only the second highest measured temperature, is that supposed to alleviate all concern?

 

[Frankfooter]

Just how the hell can you rank something when the margin of error makes it impossible to rank,...to do so,...is a bold face lie,...but of course you would be comfortable with that.

Have you never read a political poll before?
Some people.....

 

[Frankfooter]

The real news was that 2014 was no warmer than 2005. But I guess that level of honesty wouldn't have been sufficiently scary. That type of honesty certainly wouldn't have pleased the Obama administration.

No, the news was it was measured as warmer, it was a small difference, but it was reported as warmer.
It would be a lie to report otherwise.

Though on the positive side you now admit that the 3 warmest years on record (not including this year) all happened within the last 10 years.
To admit that then claim that warming has stopped is even more ridiculous.

The big question is how are you going to squirm when 2015 tops all three of those previous records and the top 3 warmest years ever will have been recorded in the last 5 years. (2015, 2014 and 2010)

 

[Moviefan-2]

The mean for 2014 was the highest on record, higher than the measured mean for 2010 or 2005. That is a fact.

It is not a fact. Once again, you've got the same problem once you factor in the margin of error for the recorded temperature anomalies and the minuscule differences between the recorded years.

You can see for yourself if you look at NASA's graph. The one on the left is the graph that was being used at the time the news release was issued:

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/updates_v3/ersst4vs3b/v3b+v4_lrg.png

It shows the five-year running mean was on a horizontal trend line and hadn't been increasing.

Yes, the measurements for 2014 have a margin of error. So do the measurements for 2005 and 2010.

Exactly -- the temperatures for the three years were the same.

That means it was a lie to issue a definitive statement that 2014 was the warmest year. NASA's data showed 2014 was the same as 2005 and 2010.

 

[Frankfooter]

Exactly -- the temperatures for the three years were the same.

That means it was a lie to issue a definitive statement that 2014 was the warmest year. NASA's data showed 2014 was the same as 2005 and 2010.

The new moviefan math:
0.68=0.67=0.66

According to you, those are all the same number.

And when are you going to admit this:
Though on the positive side you now admit that the 3 warmest years on record (not including this year) all happened within the last 10 years.
To admit that then claim that warming has stopped is even more ridiculous.

 

[FAST]

Political polls and the IPCC

Have you never read a political poll before?
Some people.....

Actually a good comparison,...both are just about as useless,...

To help you out here AGAIN,...if the margin of error is larger than the difference of the value,...then it is a lie to rank,...got it,...???



FAST

 

[Moviefan-2]

The new moviefan math:
0.68=0.67=0.66

According to you, those are all the same number.

LMFAO!

I said you didn't know what a "margin of error" is, and the quote above proves -- beyond any reasonable doubt -- that I was right.

I've spent more than enough time tutoring you on science, math, history and basic literacy (remember, Franky is the guy who thought "flat" and "flattening" were the same word, and who used to believe that man-made greenhouse gases were the dominant cause of warming in the early 20th century). You can look this one up for yourself.

 

[Frankfooter]

LMFAO!

I said you didn't know what a "margin of error" is, and the quote above proves -- beyond any reasonable doubt -- that I was right.

So you really do believe this to be a true mathematical statement:
0.68=0.67=0.66

Moviefan, math whizz, strikes again.

Hey, loser, I can get you the book list for our bet any day now, if you're willing to concede you've lost.

If you’re a betting person, it would be close to a sure bet to go all-in on 2015 taking the title of warmest year on record.

“I would say [we’re] 99 percent certain that it’s going to be the warmest year on record,” Jessica Blunden, a climate scientist with ERT, Inc., at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said during a press teleconference on Thursday.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/2015-may-just-be-hottest-year-on-record/

Check out the latest temp map included in the article above.
What's really scary is that the only real consistently colder spot is the North Atlantic, what's scary about that is it is quite probable that the thermohaline current is slowing down, that this will give Eastern Canada (probably including us) colder winters while the rest of the world gets warmer winters (barring some more odd polar vortex type freak weather).

The IPCC gave a 'very likely' or 90% that there would be some slowdown of the thermohaline current in their projections, but it wasn't expected to be this early.

Realclimate has the details on a study they worked on detailing these changes here:
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2015/03/whats-going-on-in-the-north-atlantic/

 

[Frankfooter]

remember, Franky is the guy who thought "flat" and "flattening" were the same word

And for the record, here's a good example of a chart that shows the kind of 'flattening' that moviefan thinks disproves climate change.

 

[Moviefan-2]

Groggy: Tell us what you think a margin of error is.

Please, don't be embarrassed if you can't come up with an answer. We know you never made it as far as high school, so this is probably very challenging for you.

And if you ever get done with that challenge, try looking up the words "statistically significant."

 

[Moviefan-2]

On a different note, here's something really funny.

In a BBC interview the other day, actress Emma Thompson said the Earth's temperature could increase by 4 degrees Celsius by 2030.

http://www.theguardian.com/environm...-right-and-wrong-on-climate-change?CMP=twt_gu

That's as preposterous as the IPCC's prediction about the Himalayan glaciers -- but that's not the funny part.

The funny part is that Gavin Schmidt, the guy who signed off on the lying NASA release, tried to defend Thompson's statements by saying there's too much emphasis on science in the climate change debate.

When scientists focus public outreach on correcting technical errors instead of big picture values, they reinforce 'scientization' of debate

https://twitter.com/GaspeBRreporter/status/639852179147354112

I suppose Schmidt also thinks NASA's false claim about 2014 being "the warmest year" was a "technical error."

Gavin Schmidt is clearly a big fan of 'truthiness.'