Is this analytics all bullshit?
Tonight, only watched the 3rd period. A 1-0 game, Leafs need a goal (sounds familiar).
Leafs were getting a lot of shots compared to the Flyers, but really only two good chances the entire period for the Leafs, one was Riley which was an individual effort Mason made a good save, the the other chance I thought was Lupul in the shot fanning on the quick pass from Kadri. The Flyers had a couple of good chances too, but as chances, very few for both teams and no scoring.
However, if I understand the analytics right, possession, and attempts at the net count as good stats.
Here is where the bullshit part comes in I am thinking.
There were shots on goal, but really it was only Riley and Lupul that probably had the best chances. You need to create more offense than two chances in the whole damn period when you are behind a goal. But the analytics will probably say Leafs better that Flyers in 3rd period because more shots, but really same number of real scoring chances.
Then the part about possession of the puck. That advance stat, clearly has gone up for the Leafs, because the entire team comes back into their zone for the puck. That is why this advance stat should go up, because since they outnumber the forecheckers down low, the Leafs have the puck. But there is where the problems start. Sure, the Leafs may have the puck more often in their own zone, but they do not have that long in the offensive zone. If you pass the puck around a few times in your own zone while the other team waits in the neutral zone with the trap, sure your advanced stats will go up.
In the third period, when the Leafs tried to attack, damn, they looked exactly like how they played under Carlyle, but in reverse. Leafs try to get the puck to the net, the Flyers block out the wingers, try to get the puck out, rely on the goalie to make the save. That is how the Leafs played defense, exactly how the Flyers, and a lot of other teams play defense, and they vilify Carlyle and fire him.
A good team, will naturally produce good advanced stats I think. The chicken definitely comes before the egg. To believe otherwise, may be total bullshit. Peter Horavchek, is completely in over his head. He may never get another NHL job after this.
Boooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!
:deadhorse: