Yes, I guessed it. You and your wife watch RT all the time. Hence your take on the situation which is entirely created by Russian propaganda.
Is WW3 coming ?
- Thread starter Shakeandbake
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The lack of strategic thinking by the Obama administration and many other Western Governments about the situation along the Russian - Ukrainian border definitely concerns me. The West is not used to governments who don't roll over and play dead when economic sanctions are imposed, these escalating rounds of sanctions possibly leading to large numbers of people in Western Europe sitting in the cold and dark this winter, very much have the possibility of getting out of control. There is also a sorry lack of strategic thinking regarding the Syrian - Iraqi situation.
NATO resisted pressure from Poland and the Baltics to take them in for several years. When the Eastern European states were admitted to NATO at their own request, there was no evident Russia / NATO tension and NATO seemed a purely ornamental organization. This entire "NATO has encircled us" argument is simply a ex post facto justification by Putin for seizing territory in Ukraine. the two have no logical connection.
Just a second. The Europeans VOTED for the sanctions knowing full well that they would bear the brunt of any fallout. This was a slow, carefully considered response to an obvious attempt by Russia to destabilize Eastern Europe. It started with Moldova. Now it's Ukraine. Tomorrow it will be Estonia and Latvia.
The line has to be drawn somewhere, regardless of the fall-out. You may as well say that Britain was silly to declare war on Germany in 1939 over something as distant and irrelevant as Poland when British people were going to suffer during the hostilities.
Don't forget Lithuania… the Russians would love to have a land path to that turd outpost called Kalingrad.
They also promised to return the Kallingrad area. The chances of Putin and company doing that is zero.
So much for their promise to right the original Nazi-Soviet Ribbentrop -Molotov annexation of the Baltics.
Thank God the Baltics joined NATO and the EU. Its the only thing keeping Putin at bay from trying to re-take them. Sadly the Ukraine didn't have such a deterrent.
No European state held a referendum on sanctions the only people who "voted" were the Foreign Ministers of the members of the European Union.*
There is a huge difference between the defense of a state which which you have a treaty obligation and a state with which you have no such obligation. We have previously discussed the wisdom (or lack thereof) of having extended NATO to the very border of Russia (152 km/95 miles from the second largest city in Russia) but that bed has been made and we and the Russians must both lie in it.
* In the case of Germany the next time the electorate really gets to say anything will probably not be until 2016 and then there will be multiple issues at play.
That entirely depends upon through whose eyes one views it. Certainly from the point of view of Poland and the Baltic Republics they see this as protection against Russia. However, from the Russian perspective they very much see it as a violation of the mutual understanding agreed to between the President Bush and the Soviet and then Russian leadership.
I like how you substitute terms. Were there a treaty, signed and ratified by parliaments of Russia and NATO states that the NATO will not extend to the East? Or were there just a pat on the back from Reigan to Gorbi?
Then I will give you a friendly advice. Turn off Russian TV, it is no source of information, but a source of brainwashing propaganda. I am serious. As example, you used word "junta" to describe the Ukrainian government. Under no circumstance this word can be used to describe current Ukrainian government, just look the meaning of the word in the dictionary. This word was planted and propelled by the Russian state media to summon old Soviet era propaganda demon - Chilean junta. The Chilean junta was portrayed very badly by the Soviet media, thus Russian media wanted to associate current Ukrainian government with old Soviet propaganda, already implanted in generation 35+.
I would like to advice you to also turn off Canadian TV (like I did 7 years ago), but it might be pushing to far for a start. Do a small step first.
There really isn't a completely unbiased media these days, whether it's Russian, American or Chinese. They all have some degree of bias on their media reports. You just have to take it as grain of salt and form your own judgement and not buy into any one of them completely.
It is interesting to observe in this thread how sincere anti Americanism (to which I can sympathize to some extend) pushes people to support Putin's Russia. The enemy of your enemy is not necessary your friend. In fact the enemy of your enemy might be your worst enemy.
You are mixing up terms "biased" and "aggressive propaganda". They are not the same.
You are comparing presenting biased real news (from which you can theoretically extract the real facts) and completely faking-up news to push own agenda.
There was no treaty, but for millennia it has been an essential part of diplomacy that a states word of honor meant something.
That once one state broke its word of honor on a matter then other states breaking their words becomes a "so what."
True. And now we are moving in the era when signed treaties means nothing. I don't see any good coming out of this.
E.g. the Baltic states rely on NATO for protection... But if Russia moves in now NATO can say "So what? You are to small to start a nuclear war over you." In this new era treaties means nothing.
But the possession of nuclear weapons means everything. All states watched how Ukraine was first stripped from its nuclear weapons, and than attacked by one of the guys who were suppose to protect it. The conclusion for the all states? Get a nuke, get many nukes - then you'll be respected and safe. Or annihilated together with your enemy.
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Both the Russian Government and all of NATO, I believe are well aware of the consequences of Russia invading any of the Baltic States. Ukraine is not a NATO member state and nice as Ukrainians may be, I don't believe that there is any support for getting into a war with Russia over Ukraine.
The problem w your argument is that it has become superseded by events. Assuming that the US and NATO were wrong to incorporate Poland and the Baltics, how far does that get you when those new members now feel directly and reasonably threatened by an expansionist and ultra-nationalist Russia?
From everything I can see Estonia has every reason to feel scared shitless right now. So the irony is that NATO membership for Eastern European countries may have been an annoying and useless irritant to an inoffensive Russia 5 years ago - your theory not mine - but appears a necessary bulwark for Europe at this point. As it turns out.
In any event, this is a red herring in my opinion. There is FAR more happening in Russia right now than a vague feeling of threat from the West. My one-on-one conversations w Russians have been very disturbing indeed. They suggest a deep, angry determination to blame the US and the West for a host of imaginary ills and a desire to pummel the shit out of Ukraine which is perceived as the West's proxy and to restore the old USSR by force.
While we can toy a little with the idea that the NATO has "surrounded" Russia, it's hardly plausible to debate the other Russian ideas, such as the US has introduced an AIDS epidemic into Russia to weaken it. Or the idea mooted repeatedly on Russian TV at the beginning of the Crimean phase of the Ukraine issue that the US wanted to annihilate Russians to acquire the additional living space. (Oh, I wonder where that TV news idea came from?)
Hits the nail on the head. Russian media are state-owned and state-controlled. While Western media may push an agenda, they at least attempt to portray genuine and real news in a sort of accurate and realistic way. (Well, maybe not so much Fox News).
But Russian media fabricates its own news events each day to push the Kremlin's agenda and happily goes about hiring actors to play the parts of interviewees or else scouring out old news footage from news events of the past to illustrate the fake and fictional news that Russian media is pushing that day.
This is notorious and has been commented on in all Western media on the topic. There is even a news service which provides weekly updates on the current fake Russian TV news stories, which actors are used and which old footage is adapted. Honestly. I can post the link for this service, if you want.
That I believe I said Oagre.
Also I would only hope that the Russian Government, no matter how much they resent it, know very well that the Baltic States and Poland are members of NATO.
I believe NATO absolutely would. I believe Russian believes NATO absolutely would. The problem is that Russia has very few allies and an invasion doesn't help them. There's no point in occupying a country or you lack the political or military strength to annex. Besides, if Eastern Ukraine did manage to become part of Russia, they'd very quickly realize how they've been looking at it with rose-coloured glasses. It won't be the utopia they think it will. Prices in Crimea almost doubled overnight. Eastern Ukraine wouldn't be immune from the same economic changes. Their industries thrive right now because Russia has to trade with Ukraine. If Russia could just install a state-run business to run the businesses they need, Eastern Ukraine would get very little.
Russia needs Eastern Ukraine to separate by some method that the West can't dispute so that the annexation can't be disputed. "The will of the people" isn't something that democracy-loving USA and Europe can just publicly decide to ignore and decide isn't important. That's why Crimea wasn't so hotly contested. They know they can argue all they want, but at the end of the day, an actual, proper, monitored election in Crimea would have the same result.
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