Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 hijacked, official says

BlueLaser

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http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303277704579344782977995904

But hey, its much easier to assume a brown-skinned Muslim Arab copilot went bananas and flew his plane into the ocean instead :rolleyes:
Oh my God, planes have mechanical problems?!?!? Oh well, I guess Batouti didn't do it!

I don't care what colour his skin is, what language he speaks or what religion he is. When the ONLY way the flight profiles have EVER matched in testing and simulation is by deliberate action, and when the servos are recovered intact, examined and no evidence is found of error, it's a pretty safe bet to rule out actuator failure. I guess for some, it's easier to assume everyone is just racist than actually review the details.
 

BlueLaser

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Will an insurance company pay if a case is cold (no pun intended)? If there's even suspicion for suicide, if not a hint, they may be able to delay payment per the terms of the life insurance policy. The pilot may not be aware of those terms, unless he did his homework without alarming anyone.
I don't know a lot about insurance, but it isn't it standard that they don't pay out for suicide?
 

BlueLaser

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That statistic is skewed in favor of the aviation industry.

It is based on accident occurrence over distance traveled.

If you did a statistic based on accident occurrence over length of time traveled, automobile travel would be safer (this is based on the comments of an engineer before the commencement of a tour at Pickering Nuclear Generating Station, when he extolled the safety of atomic power generation and spoke about so called 'statistics').

Also, if my car stalls, I'm unlikely to die. You can't say the same for a jetliner.
It isn't exclusively based on distance traveled. There are various ways to measure it, and in almost all of them, flying churns out far less risk than anything else. On a "per trip" basis, flying is more dangerous. But on a one-way trip, you take two car trips - one to the airport and one away from it at your destination. You also probably did several other trips that week. So it's not really fair to use a "per trip" figure unless you figure out how many trips you take in a car for each time you fly, which will be based on your own specific flight and travel habits.

If you want to use "per time", flying is much safer. For every billion hours in the air, there are 30.8 deaths. For every hour in a car, there are 130. 220 on foot. 4840 on a motorcycle. 438,000 on the space shuttle. The only ones that are safer in that area are Bus (11.1) and train (30).

There's also the "per total deaths' static. Which says you'd see a large airliner plummeting out of the sky each day to equal the same number of deaths as there are in car accidents. But it's also true that more people drive. However, per capita, in North America at least, it's still less likely even when you normalize that statistic.

If your car stalls on the 401, you just might die. But if an engine stops in flight, it's not a big deal. First off, most planes people fly in have more than 1 engine. Secondly, even in the case of all-engine failures, aircraft still fly perfectly fine. In fact, there are aircraft out there that don't have engines (gliders) and they happen to be every bit as capable of safe flight as their engine-driven counterparts.
 

BlueLaser

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You should know what I mean (when it dies).
He knew what you meant. The examples he gave all involved aircraft that had completely lost engine power. Not "stalled and started again", but dead. Not to generate another single Newton of thrust.
 

sexhungry

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Oh my God, planes have mechanical problems?!?!? Oh well, I guess Batouti didn't do it!

I don't care what colour his skin is, what language he speaks or what religion he is. When the ONLY way the flight profiles have EVER matched in testing and simulation is by deliberate action, and when the servos are recovered intact, examined and no evidence is found of error, it's a pretty safe bet to rule out actuator failure. I guess for some, it's easier to assume everyone is just racist than actually review the details.
It's not just "mechanical problems" It's a mechanical problem that can cause a crash highly similar to the one EgyptAir experienced. And simulations don't mean squat. They are just software on a computer processor. A simulation cannot possibly take into account all variables in reality and accurately account for all scenarios. Also, only 4 of the 6 servos were recovered, and they all showed damage, some of that was consistent with an in flight failure. You should read more about the case since you don't seem to know that much about it. I'll dig out the NTSB report and show you the relevant parts
Your premise makes Batouti less experienced that a pilot with 100 hours of flight time. He had over 12,000 hours though including time flying in the air force where he was one of their top flight instructors. Does that sound like the kind of guy who is going to panic, forget all of his training, and engage silent mode, ignoring his captain?

You ask why he didn't do other things, those are great questions. Why didn't he? I don't know. But I also don't know why he'd disengage the autopilot and nosed-down a perfectly airworthy aircraft. Here we have a pilot that made irrational actions, and you're asking why his actions weren't more rationally irrational. I don't have the answer to that. Neither does the NTSB. For that matter, neither does the ECAA or Boeing.

Have you operated in an aircraft in negative G? Do you have any notion of what the affects of being aft vs fore of the center of gravity, center of lift or center of mass are? I don't think I'd have any problem pulling myself from one door to another in negative G based on my experiences with it. Perhaps not if it was 6G, but there's no indication the negative G was that high, or that it was excessive at all. The idea that the captain must have returned simply because of negative G is not defensible. Now, there is a whirring noise earlier on, was that the captain returning? Maybe. But you're still stuck with a captain asking Batouti what's going on, and Batouti not saying a word. If Batouti is praying and making his actions because there's a problem, why is the captain completely silent right up until he asks "What's going on?" The captain either watched Batouti disconnect the autopilot and nose over the aircraft, or does it himself, or observes the aircraft do it in response to a mechanical problem, and doesn't say a single word until they're established in a dive when he suddenly has nothing but question after question for his co-pilot? That's really how you see it happening?

I don't think anyone attempted to restart the engine. Wilbur said that was the reason the engines were shut off. If I quote someone when I reply, you really should read it to get the context of why I'm saying what I am. I don't randomly quote on purpose.

While it's true as well that the captain did say to shut down the engines, that happens after the captain has already asked "What is this? What is this? Did you shut the engine?" And then, now that the captain has said "shut the engine", now suddenly this fearful, too-scared to speak co-pilot is capable of calmly uttering "they're shut"? So he was panic stricken in the earlier portions of a dive, but once an aircraft designed for 80% the speed of sound is plummeting towards the earth at supersonic speeds, now he's not scared anymore and is able to speak? And all he has to say is "it's shut". When the captain says "help me pull" he doesn't say "I'm pulling"? Why did he tell the captain "its shut" if he's simply a good soldier following orders and then not say he's trying when captain repeats, over and over "help me pull!"? While Batouti's silence says a lot, so does the few words he does say. Calmly uttered prayers and an chillingly calm "its shut" when the only defense for his silence is absolute panic. Prayers are not uncommon in an accident, but if you want to paint the guy as fighting ALONGSIDE the captain to regain control, you need to explain why he ignored him so much, even when he wasn't praying. I've had emergencies where my copilot prayed. I rolled my eyes and kept running the checklists, but in between verses they still manage to do their job and give me the replies I need. "What's number 2 EGT now?" "Hail Mary, full of grace. Uhh... #2 EGT normal. The lord is with thee..." "Are you cycling the APU?" "Oh God, Lord help me. APU cycled, sir. Sweet Jesus." Without fail. I've never had someone lock up completely and fail to respond. Not once. And I've been in just about everything emergency possible except for an explosion that rips the plane apart. I won't say I've seen it all, but I've seen A LOT.

I'm aware of what the FDR monitored, but it did report a split condition. Despite the earliest media reports and rampant speculation, neither the NTSB nor the FBI ruled out any possibilities. Once the entire control assembly was recovered, it was poured over by engineers. Boeing even configured a series of simulator runs to examine possible causes of the split. First off, the actuators were ALL recovered, and despite ECAA's claims that their primary theory is multiple actuator failure, there was no evidence that ANY of the actuators malfunctioned, let alone the minimum of 2 required to produce ECAA's hypothetical cause. But in the name of thoroughness, the actuator theory was tested and found that the split condition didn't match what was recorded by the FDR. What's worse, multiple actuator failure is solved by pulling back on the column, and the amount of force required to recover from actuator failure is LESS than what's required to split. No mechanical failure they could think up, including all the possibilities ECAA suggested, matched the profile the FDR recorded. But opposing control inputs does. They don't "assume" that's what happened, they've tested it. They've tested it extensively over and over, and to this day if you go to Boeing Field, you can still load up the simulator runs and try them. It's STILL being tested. And the only way that the flight profile matches MSR990's is with opposing inputs. Not every now and then, but consistently.

EgyptAir discounts suicide. Their alternative is mechanical failure despite none of the mechanical failure scenarios the propose matching the flight profile. The only explanation for Batouti's actions, even if we just take the big one we know about - refusing to speak to his captain - is either he did it on purpose, or he's pretty much the worst pilot that's ever flown. For a guy with 12,000 hours and 2 wars as an air force aviator under his belt, it's pretty hard to believe the latter.
You say it's unlikely he panicked, but somehow it's supposed to be more likely he deliberately crashed?!?!?!?! once again, you're filling in the blanks and making an assumption that because the copilot said this or didn't say that, then that means he wanted to crash the plane. There are plenty of other explanations that also fit the evidence available.

Also, as I mentioned, you have no way of knowing that the copilot pushed the column forward. Unless you were in the cockpit and saw him doing it, saying so is just an assumption that is made to explain the data. Simulator data doesn't mean anything. It's just software on a computer that attempts to model reality. If simulators were perfect, then all you need to do is play Forza or Gran Turismo and you'll be as fast as Vettel or Schumacher.

The copilot being old and experienced doesn't mean he's good. He may very well be incompetent. I'm a professional myself, and I work in the health care field. I've seen for myself how some of the older and experienced people can actually be quite incompetent, even to a dangerous level, and I've seen them get totally spanked in terms of knowledge and skill by new grads less than half their age.

As for the actuators, all of the 4 recovered were damaged, and 2 were damaged in another way than the other 2. Also there was a problem with the rivets shearing off and not having any symptoms. This meant that it was possible for one actuator on each side to fail without anyone knowing it. It's possible one of the actuator rivets had sheared off some time ago in the accident flight. If that was the case beforehand, then all EgyptAir 990 needed was one actuator jamming to cause the elevator to stick.

Are you familiar with Occam's Razor by any chance? Why don't you apply it to EgyptAir crash and let us know what you find?
 

Perry Mason

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"Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth."

Hello... HAL?

Perry
 

Aardvark154

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Are you familiar with Occam's Razor by any chance? Why don't you apply it to EgyptAir crash and let us know what you find?
To me it is you who are not applying Occam's Razor.

As already said there is possible and there is probable - and that was before I realized that all of the actuators had been recovered and examined.
 

BlueLaser

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It's not just "mechanical problems" It's a mechanical problem that can cause a crash highly similar to the one EgyptAir experienced. And simulations don't mean squat. They are just software on a computer processor. A simulation cannot possibly take into account all variables in reality and accurately account for all scenarios. Also, only 4 of the 6 servos were recovered, and they all showed damage, some of that was consistent with an in flight failure. You should read more about the case since you don't seem to know that much about it. I'll dig out the NTSB report and show you the relevant parts

You say it's unlikely he panicked, but somehow it's supposed to be more likely he deliberately crashed?!?!?!?! once again, you're filling in the blanks and making an assumption that because the copilot said this or didn't say that, then that means he wanted to crash the plane. There are plenty of other explanations that also fit the evidence available.

Also, as I mentioned, you have no way of knowing that the copilot pushed the column forward. Unless you were in the cockpit and saw him doing it, saying so is just an assumption that is made to explain the data. Simulator data doesn't mean anything. It's just software on a computer that attempts to model reality. If simulators were perfect, then all you need to do is play Forza or Gran Turismo and you'll be as fast as Vettel or Schumacher.

The copilot being old and experienced doesn't mean he's good. He may very well be incompetent. I'm a professional myself, and I work in the health care field. I've seen for myself how some of the older and experienced people can actually be quite incompetent, even to a dangerous level, and I've seen them get totally spanked in terms of knowledge and skill by new grads less than half their age.

As for the actuators, all of the 4 recovered were damaged, and 2 were damaged in another way than the other 2. Also there was a problem with the rivets shearing off and not having any symptoms. This meant that it was possible for one actuator on each side to fail without anyone knowing it. It's possible one of the actuator rivets had sheared off some time ago in the accident flight. If that was the case beforehand, then all EgyptAir 990 needed was one actuator jamming to cause the elevator to stick.

Are you familiar with Occam's Razor by any chance? Why don't you apply it to EgyptAir crash and let us know what you find?
You're underestimating the value of simulation. Simulation determines the exact commands that spacecraft will need to execute weeks or months before launch to achieve precise orbit around celestial bodies. And we aren't talking about Microsoft Flight Simulator 2010 here, we're talking about an actual simulation. We're talking about modelling the minutiae of detail that act upon all of these surfaces and all of the possible outcomes. We're talking about engineers likely way smarter than anyone on these forums analyzing results and components with a fine tooth comb. You can say "Simulation doesn't matter" all you want, but it does. If you really think a playstation 3 contains the same processing power and modelling as a $3 million dollar simulator, you're wrong. You're also wrong if you think the only means of simulation was a full-motion "video game" style simulator. We're also talking environmental modelling of the forces that effect individual components. Taking a simulated tail section and working through the various forces to find failure points is a common thing in accident investigations, and usually there is no "visual" to go along with it. It's simply a super computer crunching numbers and doing math for hours on end. Comparing these simulations to racing video games is pretty inane. You're stretching. You also have to remember that the limitations of simulation are acknowledged, and because of that they are given a bit of a wide berth. Results that are "close" are generally considered "inconclusive". Simulation is more aimed at ruling things out. And when simulation shows an extreme departure between the hypothesis and the actual data, then it is inferred that the hypothesis is wrong. That's the case with 3 out of the 4 possible mechanical failure scenarios reviewed in the MSR990 case. The only failure scenario that remained and not discounted by simulation was also examined in depth and based on the evidence (and we're talking physical evidence, not the CVR), was dismissed as well.

As for the "servos", they were all recovered. Not all the PCAs were recovered. Not all the ballcranks were recovered. The servos showed no signs of abnormal wear. You mention 4 of 6, that tells me you're talking about PCAs. PCAs are not servos. Have some servos in them, but I was under the impression we were talking about autopilot servos leading to the autopilot disconnection. Those servos were all recovered. The PCAs recovered shows, in the NTSBs words "impact damage". They also go on to say, "there was no evidence of scraping, abrasion, or other marks on the improperly positioned bias spring or adjacent surfaces that would indicate that these metal parts had jammed in the PCA." The bellcranks showed shear damage as well, but given that half were sheared one way and half the other, and given that the damage is consistent with impact damage, the conclusion is fairly obvious. But not to leave things to obvious, common sense, the NTSB reported, "Examination of the fracture surfaces on the recovered pieces of wreckage revealed that the fractures were consistent with failures generated by a high-speed impact. None of the fracture surfaces examined exhibited any sign of preexisting fatigue or corrosion. No evidence of foreign object impact damage or pre- or postimpact explosion or fire damage was observed." They also note in the fine print that they acknowledge a jam can occur without leaving physical evidence, but that based on prior investigations and maintenance records showed "that physical evidence of a jam was always observed after tests involving hardened steel chips jammed and/or sheared in a PCA." They also mention the significance of the shearing as indicative of control column input by stating "the shear rivets are designed to fail when they are subjected to about 50 lbs of force or more at the control column, the PCA is jammed, and the compressible links are bottomed out. In addition, shear rivets may fail as a result of impact or recovery-related forces." This is rather important because the inputs at the controls go through several systems before reaching the elevator control assemblies in the empennage, so it's an isolation of forces required along the route. This shows the level of detail they went to in order to determine what other forces could have caused it. Autopilot? No, the servos don't exert sufficient force for that. Other causes would've left physical evidence, as they said. What's left is 50lbs of differential pressure on the control columns. Simulation supports that by finding that no other combination of factors or failures results in the same profile. Sure, dismiss simulation if you want to, but you don't find it odd that the exact same profile CAN be flown and the exact same failures CAN be shown but ONLY if two pilots pull in opposite directions?

There's also the convenient way that both you and the ECAA miss the fact that a hard-over from multiple PCA failure remains controllable, and that even a single-elevator hard-over is recoverable and flying. Could a dual-PCA failure cause a hard-over on one elevator? Yes. Would it result in a split condition being recording on the FDR for the duration that was in the case of MSR990? No. Boeing has tested it, they've debunked it. ECAA's proposed scenario of PCA failure would not have caused this flight profile alone, and one pilot, let alone two, pulling back on the control column would have regained control. This would have manifested itself as uni-directional shear in the shear rivets in the bellcranks because that's what the shear rivets are for. Both pilots pulling back hard, or one pilot doing it himself, would've created a shear in the bellcranks in one direction only. A shear in both is the evidence of the split condition, and nothing in the aircraft other than opposing pilot inputs contains the force necessary to do it.

If you can assume he panicked, I can assume he did it on purpose. What's good for the goose... I'm all ears to your "other explanations". So far the only explanation you or anyone else has offered to explain his behaviour is "he panicked" and "he's a horrible pilot." Although the truth is that I'm not "assuming" anything, I'm "inferring". Based on available data and possible outcomes, we can infer things. An assumption would be to say he wore tighty whities because every Egyptian man I've ever met has wore them (an example, I don't ask men about their underwear preference). When you examine data and reach a logical conclusion from following them, it's called an inference, not an assumption. Assumptions are not backed up with data.

The reason we infer SOMEONE pushed forward on the control column comes from the fact that this is the only scenario that explains the evidence: bi-directional shear in the ballcrank shear rivets, the flight profile of the aircraft, the positions of the various control surfaces. We have further evidence from the fact that when the elevators initially started to move towards recovery, the force down increased on one. So we have an elevator with both sides pitching the aircraft nose down, then recovering near-neutral. That doesn't indicate failure, that indicates deliberate motion. We then have the elevators start to move up to recover from a dive before one is suddenly jammed in the opposite direction. So you say servo, or PCA or bellcrank... Ok, except they were already in a dive before there's any indication of anything remotely akin to an elevator hard-over. And there's an obvious attempt to recover from the dive before half a second later a split condition is indicated. Not only that, but did this "hardover" mechanical stay hardover? No, it occasionally fluttered up a little. What a strange mechanical failure that it "jams" hard one way but lets up every now and then, just a little. In fact, not strange at all. Since no mechanical failure could be made to reproduce this condition.

No matter how you try to spin mechanical failure, you're stuck with the fact that Batouti DID disconnect the autopilot and he DID nose the aircraft into the initial dive. Those cannot be refuted because, as all data shows, both elevators were working normally and within tolerance when the dive began. Boeing was called in to review the recovered parts, including the "servos" that you claim showed signs of in-air failure, and after detailed analysis, their report came out that "did not find any evidence of a failure condition within the airplane flight control system that could have caused or contributed to the initial pitchover, or prevented recovery from the dive." That's the key right there. EVEN if the ECAA scenario of PCA/servo/bellcrank failure is correct, the aircraft is still recoverable, not to mention all evidence that could point to a possible failure was well after the dive was established, the engines idled, and the captain is asking, without answer, what's happening.

The ONLY reason ECAA or anyone is fishing for this mysterious "servo" failure as everyone in this thread is talking about, is because of the directive Boeing and the FAA had issued regarding inspection and replacement of possible bellcrank shear rivets. MSR went so far as to say that had "evidence" the previous day of a failure. But did they immediately ground their fleet after they determined, in their opinion and in opposition of the opinions of the investigators and the aircraft manufacturer, MSR990 had experienced a severe and catastrophic failure? Nope. That's how deep their conviction is - not deep enough to halt all 767 flights and ensure that the fleet is up to par.

Yes, the media took the voice recordings and ran with "Egyptian extremist." The report, however, takes another approach. It examines the physical evidence and finds no mechanical cause but that deliberate action could have caused the issue. Sometimes deliberate action is taken because a pilot thinks it's what needs to be done (Air France 447's 3rd pilot pulling back to "climb" while in a stall, for example, shows inexperience but logical panic - or wait, I guess I can't say that; the FDR doesn't tell us he pulled back). So we have deliberate action causing the crash. Now the report moved into analysis of the CVR to attempt to clue into why. And what does it find? A pilot that starts repeating a prayer, THEN turns off the autopilot, THEN noses the aircraft forward and THEN ignores his captain, all while praying and not asking for help. Does the FDR explicitely say that the copilot turned off the autopilot and nosed the aircraft over? Of course not. But we can infer it, we can deduce it, based on the physical evidence.

I'll save you the trouble of finding the report. It's here:

http://www.ntsb.gov/doclib/reports/2002/aab0201.pdf

Have a really good read. I'd say pay careful attention to the section starting at the bottom of page 53 headered "Mechanical Failure/Anomoly Secenarios", but the reality is that you obviously think you have an understanding of what and how things were tested when you don't really. In fact, it sounds like you read the ECAA report and not the NTSB or Beoing ones.
 

wilbur

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FAA to Issue 'Emergency Airworthiness Directive' On Boeing 767 Elevator Control System

WASHINGTON, Aug. 15 /PRNewswire/ -- The Boeing 767 elevator control
system, suspected by Egyptian investigators and U.S. aviation experts as a
possible cause of the EgyptAir Flight 990 crash last October, is the target of
a Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) "emergency airworthiness directive" to
all airlines.

The FAA is acting following a joint investigation with Boeing that
uncovered at least 11 instances of sheared rivets in the critical elevator
control system aboard 767 aircraft.

The FAA inquiry was initiated following
receipt of a June 4, 2000 letter to Administrator Jane Garvey from the head of
the Egyptian Civil Aviation Authority, providing information on the exact same
problem, exposed during the EgyptAir Flight 990 investigation.
A bulletin from the Boeing Service Engineering Customer Support Group was
prepared in mid-July and made public to air carriers and airworthiness
authorities on July 31.
The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) opened the EgyptAir 990
docket last Friday, August 11, providing "factual information" on the crash.
The "emergency airworthiness directive" calls for safety inspections of
the bell cranks, a part of the critical elevator control system, located on
the tail of an aircraft. The elevators control the upward or downward
movement of the nose of a plane.
Egyptian investigators and U.S. aviation experts probing the EgyptAir
Flight 990 accident have pointed to sheared rivets as evidence of a jam in the
elevator control system, causing the plane to pitch down. A power control
unit from the right elevator on the tail of EgyptAir Flight 990 showed several
anomalies and unexplained damage when it was examined.
EgyptAir Flight 990 crashed off Nantucket en route from New York's John F.
Kennedy International Airport to Cairo, Egypt.
A team of Egyptian experts has been working as accredited members of the
NTSB investigation since shortly after the accident. Dispatched by the
Egyptian Civil Aviation Authority and EgyptAir, they have been assisted by a
number of U.S. aviation and technical experts.
EgyptAir, founded in 1932, is a founding member of the International Civil
Aviation Organization (ICAO) and the International Airline Transport
Association (IATA). EgyptAir flies the latest generation of aircraft on
routes around the world.
 

BlueLaser

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FAA to Issue 'Emergency Airworthiness Directive' On Boeing 767 Elevator Control System

WASHINGTON, Aug. 15 /PRNewswire/ -- The Boeing 767 elevator control
system, suspected by Egyptian investigators and U.S. aviation experts as a
possible cause of the EgyptAir Flight 990 crash last October, is the target of
a Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) "emergency airworthiness directive" to
all airlines.

The FAA is acting following a joint investigation with Boeing that
uncovered at least 11 instances of sheared rivets in the critical elevator
control system aboard 767 aircraft.

The FAA inquiry was initiated following
receipt of a June 4, 2000 letter to Administrator Jane Garvey from the head of
the Egyptian Civil Aviation Authority, providing information on the exact same
problem, exposed during the EgyptAir Flight 990 investigation.
A bulletin from the Boeing Service Engineering Customer Support Group was
prepared in mid-July and made public to air carriers and airworthiness
authorities on July 31.
The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) opened the EgyptAir 990
docket last Friday, August 11, providing "factual information" on the crash.
The "emergency airworthiness directive" calls for safety inspections of
the bell cranks, a part of the critical elevator control system, located on
the tail of an aircraft. The elevators control the upward or downward
movement of the nose of a plane.
Egyptian investigators and U.S. aviation experts probing the EgyptAir
Flight 990 accident have pointed to sheared rivets as evidence of a jam in the
elevator control system, causing the plane to pitch down. A power control
unit from the right elevator on the tail of EgyptAir Flight 990 showed several
anomalies and unexplained damage when it was examined.
EgyptAir Flight 990 crashed off Nantucket en route from New York's John F.
Kennedy International Airport to Cairo, Egypt.
A team of Egyptian experts has been working as accredited members of the
NTSB investigation since shortly after the accident. Dispatched by the
Egyptian Civil Aviation Authority and EgyptAir, they have been assisted by a
number of U.S. aviation and technical experts.
EgyptAir, founded in 1932, is a founding member of the International Civil
Aviation Organization (ICAO) and the International Airline Transport
Association (IATA). EgyptAir flies the latest generation of aircraft on
routes around the world.
Congratulations, you can locate a directive without any understanding of what it means. Sorry, let me rephrase that. Congratulations, you can locate a news article written to sell newspapers that mentions an airworthiness directive without any understanding of what an airworthiness directive means, or what this one in specific means (I would be willing to bet money you didn't even read the actual AD it mentions which would give background on why it's issued).

During analysis of a crash parts are recovered and looked at. At the first hint of a possible mechanical problem, directives are issued to "inspect" for fault. Do you know what airlines do if they find fault? They immediately tell the manufacturer. In some ways, you can look at it as fact finding. The bellcranks showed sheared shear rivets (again, that's what shear rivets are for, hence why they have the word "shear" in them) and issued a directive to have them looked at. If all the airlines are reported sheared rivets on 767 bellcranks, that helps investigators narrow the scope and gives the manufacturer a kick in the ass to repair the issue. Turns out the probing didn't return much of value. Yes, some aircraft showed shearing in the bellcranks. What you fail to consider is the fact that since the directive was issued, Boeing had determined the aircraft performed as expected - that shearing of shear rivets (again, what they're designed to do) doesn't render the aircraft uncontrollable. Sheered bellcrank rivets might require more power on the control systems to move the systems, power the autopilot lacks, but a pilot is still able to control the aircraft through the linkage system with sheared bellcrank shear rivets. Furthermore, that directive was issued in 2000. Further analysis and investigation determined the cause for the sheared shear rivets in the EgyptAir 990 case to be differential control pressure, the only answer to why some are sheared in one direction and the rest in the other, which is all explained in the report the was issued in 2002. Additionally, a sheared bellcrank will yield a certain flight profile, a profile that doesn't match the EgyptAir 990 case. A failure in the PCA or bellcranks will cause a near-neutral elevator condition after the initial nose-over, not a hard-over as ECAA claims was the cause of 990's crash. This was determined only after extensive testing. In fact, if you actually read the entire NTSB report, you'll see that not only does the condition return to near neutral, the aircraft is designed to be aerodynamically stable and if no pilot input is made at all, will begin recovery on it's own, even without autopilot turned on, within 20 seconds. It's a feature of how aircraft work. If you trim a stable aircraft for level flight, airspeed will take care of everything. If the aircraft is trimmed and speeds up for any reason, the nose comes up and it gently oscillates itself to an attitude that will result in the same airspeed. Likewise if it slows down, the nose will drop and it will gently oscillate itself to an attitude to maintain that speed. So in a trimmed aircraft, which both autopilots and real pilots configure for, shearing in the bell cranks MAY nose the aircraft into a gentle dive initially, and within 20 seconds, as the airspeed starts to climb a few knots, air pressure on the control surfaces will automatically pull the nose up, reducing the airspeed. Eventually the airspeed will be slower than it was in trimmed, level flight, and the nose will start to pitch down again to speed up. Each time it oscillates, the speed variation from trimmed level flight is less, until the aircraft finds itself back in an attitude that maintains the trimmed speed.

The directive operated on the assumption that shear in the bellcranks caused a hardover condition. It turns out that it doesn't. It turns out that it was designed not to. The ECAA, based on reports from EgyptAir, sent information to the NTSB saying that hardovers were noted from shearing in the bellcrank shear rivets. Further investigation has determined that's not the case. ECAA has never acknowledged those findings, but they've never disputed them either, except to maintain the position that it was the "likely" cause of 990's crash. In any case, "inspection" is what's noted in the directive, not "replacement". EDIT: I should clarify here. They are ordered replaced if found faulty, but the AD doesn't say "replace all bellcranks with the following part number with these new ones". END EDIT. The crux of the issue is that Boeing designed these systems to be inspected, but determined that routine inspections didn't include checking these shear rivets. Alternative maintenance instructions were subsequently issued to ensure that all bellcranks are inspected on a regular basis. A new AD was issued in 2001 with even more revised instructions after a report was received that an elevator drooped during a routine walk-around check of an aircraft. It isn't a failure, but pilots, being safety conscious that we are, since if something is wrong it isn't Boeing, the FAA or the maintenance crews that die but us, snag them, rendering the aircraft unusable until the snag is resolved. Under pressure, because now the airline has a 767 sitting on the ground that a pilot refuses to fly and maintenance has no directive to fix, Boeing issues a directive to fix it. In 2001, because reports were coming in that the rivets were "shearing" without warning (meaning maintenance was finding them in the inspections detailed in the previous AD), Boeing issued a new directive to test them regularly to look specifically for shear. In 2007, after thousands and thousands of flights by 767 with not a single case of failure being attributed to unrecoverable failure, Boeing issues a new directive. Why? They told people to look for sheer rivet failures and now they're tired of the reports coming in. Given that sheared shear rivets don't actually disconnect the linkages or change the properties of the elevator control system, they order any bellcrank with sheared shear rivets replaced with a new part that doesn't contain shear rivets at all. In other words, that built a safety feature that's overruled by other safety features and is, essentially, pointless, but since it generates so much paperwork, they're removing it from service. I think they summarized it nicely from the latest AD: http://www.regulations.gov/contentS...228dcd&disposition=attachment&contentType=pdf

"A detailed design review found that the override device incorporated into the elevator PCA input rod assembly provides protection against malfunctions and non-normal PCA operation. This design review also found that the shear rivets are not needed."

It should also be noted that several directives were issued by other authorities (outside the US the FAA has no bearing). Australia's AD was accompanied by the following explanation:

"The FAA has received reports that elevator bellcrank assemblies with failed shear rivets have been found on three Model 767 aircraft. On one aircraft, the failed shear rivets were found in both the left inboard and left centre power control actuator bellcrank assemblies. Failure of two bellcrank assemblies on one side can result in that single surface moving to a hardover position independent of pilot command resulting in a significant pitch upset recoverable by the crew."

Note my emphasis. I didn't emphasize hardover since,by definition, it's not a hardover if it's recoverable. Simple case of a politician writing a report with wording he's heard and no understanding of that wording. An aircraft that entered service in 1981 found that a grand total of three (3) aircraft in 21 years exhibited this issue. Also note the phrase "recoverable by the crew". It was issued several months after the FAA one, which means it includes information that wasn't available to the FAA. And before you bring it up, in the final AD issued in 2007, Boeing, not wanting to lose business with MSR and other large airlines in the Middle East that believe the FAA report is incomplete they included the phrase "possible loss of control" even though, to date, not a single case (except EgyptAir 990 according to you and "maybe" according the MSR who say failed bellcrank is only one of several "possible causes" yet continued to fly 767's without them being 'repaired' to avoid this problem) of bellcrank shear failure has been reported as causing a loss of control. At no point has anyone "hid" or "covered up" anything, and yet MSR STILL FLIES 767s. This unsafe machine with unsafe mechanism that maybe crashed their plane according to them, which for 7 years after still had the same potential. They are so convinced that this unsafe and dangerous condition existed and brought down a flight killing hundreds of people that they did what exactly? Oh right, they did absolutely nothing and continued to operate that aircraft model daily without concern. Now tell me, does that sound like an airline that almost goes bankrupt from a crash and the subsequent lawsuit, or does it sound more like some PR spin trying to cast doubt on where the blame is to win said lawsuits and maintain the trust of the flying public?

In any case, it's amazing how aviation works, huh? In the course of an investigation, they locate a possible cause, issue a directive for everyone to watch for it just in case, then continue the investigation and either prove or discount that as the cause of the crash. This doesn't prove bellcranks are faulty. What it does prove is that, contrary to the claim otherwise, the NTSB and the FAA didn't say, "Holy shit an Egyptian guy saying a prayer? Ignore everything and let's just try to prove he crashed the bastard, that dirty brown-skinned, muslim terrorist!" They looked at all possibilities seriously - seriously enough to issue an emergency directive the second they found any mechanical anomaly that they couldn't immediately explain.

But hey, good job ignoring ALL the evidence and jumping on just the ONE PIECE that backs up your theory. Good thing that, unlike you, the NTSB didn't stick to one working theory and run with it even when analysis and evidence showed it was wrong.
 

BlueLaser

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To me it is you who are not applying Occam's Razor.

As already said there is possible and there is probable - and that was before I realized that all of the actuators had been recovered and examined.
The problem is that Occam's Razor only works if you include facts. The simplest explanation is that the engines simply fell off because maintenance forgot to glue them. After all, you can't recover from that. Perhaps "actuator failure" is a "simpler" explanation, but it doesn't fit with the facts. So if we're ignoring facts, why not just ignore the realities of how engines are attached to airplanes and assume that maintenance has to glue them on before every flight? In this case, study, analysis and investigation have determined that there is no evidence to support a mechanical failure, but SOME evidence to support suicide. It's not 100%, but in the case EgyptAir, we know beyond any doubt that it crashed due to deliberate action. Maybe not suicide, maybe incompetence, maybe something else, but deliberate pilot action. I dismiss incompetence based on my own experiences in the cockpit. I realize not everyone has that experience and is as willing to dismiss it as I am. If it was like Air France 447, where the pilot took the action that anyone without flight training would instinctively take, maybe. But not only do the pilot's actions defy proper procedure, they defy instinct. The argument that we don't know what the position of the control column is because it's not recorded on the FDR is farcical. After all, the FDR can only record what sensors report, so if we take the stance that we can't extrapolate data, we don't actually know anything other than a sensor value, rendering FDRs the most useless of all equipment. Now we don't know how any airplane crashed if e used FDR data since it's useless. For all we know, FDR sensors don't even work! Maybe they're all faulty.

I'm not sure why people like to cling to this fantasy that Batouti didn't do it. I understand his family and friends doing it, I even get why EgyptAir and the ECAA would do it (insurance and lawsuits cost HUGE money). But why are strangers years after the fact clinging to it like they have some stock in it? I don't know. Unless they think 767 are unsafe and it's a conspiracy. But then, we don't really see them falling out of the sky, so it's a pretty silly stance to take.
 

whitewaterguy

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The problem is that Occam's Razor only works if you include facts. The simplest explanation is that the engines simply fell off because maintenance forgot to glue them. After all, you can't recover from that. Perhaps "actuator failure" is a "simpler" explanation, but it doesn't fit with the facts. So if we're ignoring facts, why not just ignore the realities of how engines are attached to airplanes and assume that maintenance has to glue them on before every flight? In this case, study, analysis and investigation have determined that there is no evidence to support a mechanical failure, but SOME evidence to support suicide. It's not 100%, but in the case EgyptAir, we know beyond any doubt that it crashed due to deliberate action. Maybe not suicide, maybe incompetence, maybe something else, but deliberate pilot action. I dismiss incompetence based on my own experiences in the cockpit. I realize not everyone has that experience and is as willing to dismiss it as I am. If it was like Air France 447, where the pilot took the action that anyone without flight training would instinctively take, maybe. But not only do the pilot's actions defy proper procedure, they defy instinct. The argument that we don't know what the position of the control column is because it's not recorded on the FDR is farcical. After all, the FDR can only record what sensors report, so if we take the stance that we can't extrapolate data, we don't actually know anything other than a sensor value, rendering FDRs the most useless of all equipment. Now we don't know how any airplane crashed if e used FDR data since it's useless. For all we know, FDR sensors don't even work! Maybe they're all faulty.

I'm not sure why people like to cling to this fantasy that Batouti didn't do it. I understand his family and friends doing it, I even get why EgyptAir and the ECAA would do it (insurance and lawsuits cost HUGE money). But why are strangers years after the fact clinging to it like they have some stock in it? I don't know. Unless they think 767 are unsafe and it's a conspiracy. But then, we don't really see them falling out of the sky, so it's a pretty silly stance to take.
The arguments are in for both sides.....based on the evidence presented, BATOUTI did it. End of story.....if there is any issue with that........run a Terb Poll....let the jury decide
 

Aardvark154

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The problem is that Occam's Razor only works if you include facts. The simplest explanation is that the engines simply fell off because maintenance forgot to glue them. After all, you can't recover from that. Perhaps "actuator failure" is a "simpler" explanation, but it doesn't fit with the facts. So if we're ignoring facts, why not just ignore the realities of how engines are attached to airplanes and assume that maintenance has to glue them on before every flight? In this case, study, analysis and investigation have determined that there is no evidence to support a mechanical failure, but SOME evidence to support suicide. It's not 100%, but in the case EgyptAir, we know beyond any doubt that it crashed due to deliberate action. . . . .
We are saying the same thing. However, needless to say you are approaching it from the perspective of a pilot with a ATPL rating, while I am not and that is reflected in how we discuss it.
 

sexhungry

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The arguments are in for both sides.....based on the evidence presented, BATOUTI did it. End of story.....if there is any issue with that........run a Terb Poll....let the jury decide
No it's not. the evidence is not conclusive and there is too much speculation and filling in the blanks. There are still plenty of facts unexplained by the "suicide" theory (I guess EgyptAir is not the only side ignoring inconvenient evidence, huh?) The copilot shutting off the engines while initiating a dive. Why? I would think full power to the engines would speed up the dive. He didn't lock the cockpit door, nor did he attempt to incapacitate the pilot. If he really wanted to crash, that's a huge risk to take giving the pilot plenty of time to possibly discover his plot and stop him. There is also evidence that hints the pilot might have been in his seat almost a whole minute before the NTSB says he did (i.e. the sound of the electric motor of the seat caught on the CVR). There were more drastic actions he could have taken to put the plane in a crash towards the earth. In fact one of the arguments of the NTSB was that an elevator jam would have made the elevators stick at 6 degrees while the FDR only shows 3.6 degrees. . If that's the case, and the elevators were moving as a result of copilot action, then why didn't Batouti use the full 6 degrees to make the dive even faster and less likely to recover from? Heck, the CVR says Batouti found the main copilot's pen and wanted to give it to him. Is that consistent with someone about to deliberately crash the plane? Why would someone who is about to commit suicide and take the whole plane with him worry about giving his colleague his pen back?
 

BlueLaser

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No it's not. the evidence is not conclusive and there is too much speculation and filling in the blanks. There are still plenty of facts unexplained by the "suicide" theory (I guess EgyptAir is not the only side ignoring inconvenient evidence, huh?) The copilot shutting off the engines while initiating a dive. Why? I would think full power to the engines would speed up the dive. He didn't lock the cockpit door, nor did he attempt to incapacitate the pilot. If he really wanted to crash, that's a huge risk to take giving the pilot plenty of time to possibly discover his plot and stop him. There is also evidence that hints the pilot might have been in his seat almost a whole minute before the NTSB says he did (i.e. the sound of the electric motor of the seat caught on the CVR). There were more drastic actions he could have taken to put the plane in a crash towards the earth. In fact one of the arguments of the NTSB was that an elevator jam would have made the elevators stick at 6 degrees while the FDR only shows 3.6 degrees. . If that's the case, and the elevators were moving as a result of copilot action, then why didn't Batouti use the full 6 degrees to make the dive even faster and less likely to recover from? Heck, the CVR says Batouti found the main copilot's pen and wanted to give it to him. Is that consistent with someone about to deliberately crash the plane? Why would someone who is about to commit suicide and take the whole plane with him worry about giving his colleague his pen back?
I think the evidence is pretty self-evident. But since you don't know about aircraft or aviation, let me help with some small points.

No pilot would question why he reduced power to dive. That's how you're taught to enter a dive, and despite you and MSR's claims that Batouti was the worst pilot that ever lived, a pilot isn't going to forget lesson 2 in flight school (Lesson 1 - straight and level flight, lesson 2 - climbs and descents, lesson 3- level turns). The fact that he reduced power every single time he had initiated a dive in his entire career and taught pilots to reduce power to initiate a dive is enough to explain that. Besides, you don't need power to crash. Do you crash faster, sure. Sooner, perhaps. But you still crash. Hardly enough to refute the deliberate act finding.

As for why he didn't lock the door, let me ask you this: did EgyptAir's 767s have locks on their cockpit doors in 1999? If you don't know the answer to that question, perhaps you shouldn't be thinking yourself such an expert on the subject.

As for incapacitating the Captain, if he knew the Captain couldn't do anything as long Batouti sat in his chair ensuring a dive, why get up and try to hurt the captain, risk being overpowered and failing?

As for the captain returning earlier... There are a lot of motor sounds in a cockpit. Explain why an aircraft is in a dive with a captain sitting there saying nothing for more than a minute and then suddenly the captain starts asking what's happening and doesn't let more than 7 seconds go between questions that his co-pilot refuses to answer? The sound of a whirring motor doesn't imply the captain returned. It implies that things in a cockpit whir. Listen to CVRs of basically any crash and you'll hear frequent whirring. That's why that sound was dismissed as the captain returning. Don't let the transcriptions you find fool you. Listen to the actual recording yourself if you want. You hear the captain leave, you hear whirring, does it sound the same to you?

As for the elevator, do you know what a loop is? If you pull back on a control column and don't let go, provided you have enough thrust or airspeed, you go right around. You can do the same thing going down, it's just a lot less comfortable and a lot more dangerous. Nonetheless, why didn't Batouti apply 6 degrees the entire time? Because he's not a mechanical failure hardover. If he's a human trying to crash a plane, he'll keep enough pressure to overcome the aircraft's desire to pull up and recover but not enough to do a negative-G loop. Besides, I don't know where you get 3.6 degrees from. Did you even read the report? Page 37:

"Between 0150:05 and 0150:06, the FDR recorded additional movements in the inboard ailerons, and the left and right elevators moved an additional 1.5º TED to about 5.5º TED"

The idea that the maximum of 6 degree deflection is always possible at all times also shows a lack of understanding of the 767 control systems. It's technical and complex so I'm not going to explain it, suffice it to say you don't know what you're talking about in terms of elevator deflection, so perhaps you should stop using something you don't understand as your defense. In any case, the elevators were constantly moving. They varied. Another reason hardover doesn't fit the theory.

Maybe Batouti didn't give the pen back. Maybe he took the pen into the crew rest area and stabbed all the crew. We have no CVR back there. Just because someone says they did something doesn't mean they did. Hardly evidence of anything.

But hey, I'm all ears. However, from a guy that said it was "servos" and then seems to be talking about PCAs, and that says the report claimed signs of in-air failure when it doesn't, and even claimed a similar crash occurred that has been caused by the same thing.

So, show me where the report mentions 4 of 6 servos being recovered. Show me where it says they observe damage that could have occurred in-flight. Name the similar crash that occurred because of servo failure.

Here we have an explanation - a perfectly plausible one - that the pilot acted irrationally. It fits perfectly with every single detail we know. The ONLY argument against it is that he wasn't more rationally irrational. I've said it before, but it bears repeating. That is the ONLY defense. Why did Vince Li stay on the bus and wait for police after he beheaded a guy? He probably could've gotten away, maybe decapitated a few more people. Who knows why? The guy snapped and did something irrational, so it no longer makes sense to apply rationality to his thought process. But that's exactly what you're trying to do. You're saying you don't believe Batouti deliberately crashed the plane because someone who had premeditated and thought through the actions would behave the way he did. Well... maybe it wasn't pre-meditated. Maybe he didn't think it through. But the fact is that we know a few things for sure: we know Batouti turned off the autopilot, idled the engines and put the plane into a dive and we know that the captain had no clue why he would do such a thing. We've already established irrationality. If we stop right there, we might already be able say that Batouti may have created an unstable condition from which the aircraft couldn't recover, except that extensive testing has shown that the aircraft was recoverable. We know the captain attempted to recover, and we can infer, based on the preponderance of the evidence, that Batouti hindered the recovery. The only one making assumptions is you: you're assuming that the report is wrong and there must be another explanation because you assume Batouti would've acted more rationally had his intention been suicide. But the fact is that despite your vehement defense of this man, you can't offer a single shred of evidence to refute the claims made in the report other than "simulators are just software run on computers".

I find it interesting that you had a wealth of reasons why it had to be a mechanical hardover, and now suddenly you have nothing to say about that particular hypothesis after I pointed out what the report had to say, including page numbers. You now seem to acknowledge it couldn't have been a mechanical hardover because the elevator wasn't in a hardover condition now. So what's your theory? "It was caused by anything other than suicide." Why are you so convinced it couldn't be suicide? Perhaps more importantly, why do you care so much that it wasn't suicide? People commit suicide every day, why is this case so important to you that you take an "anything but that" approach?
 

BlueLaser

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http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/0...potted-two-objects-only-hours-earlier-monday/

Flight MH370 ‘has been lost and none of those on board survived,’ officials confirm
Which while an Official Statement by the Government of Malaysia, and important as such, is also "A Blinding Flash of the Obvious."
That was about the least useful news update on MH370 that I've seen since the damned thing went missing. "We assume it was out over the ocean and not near a landing strip, so we assume it's gone and everyone is dead." I'm so glad they chose to share that information with us. Better yet, I'm so glad they chose to share with those who lost loved ones on the flight VIA TEXT. That's pretty cold. Even the police at least show up in person to tell you when your loved one is dead.
 

BlueLaser

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We are saying the same thing. However, needless to say you are approaching it from the perspective of a pilot with a ATPL rating, while I am not and that is reflected in how we discuss it.
I understand. I was just adding that Occam's Razor was never meant to apply in cases where the simplest explanation doesn't fit the facts of a case. Given more than one possibility, all of which are in accordance with the facts, the simplest is the most likely. But if there's an even easier explanation that can be directly refuted and shown to be false, you can't apply Occam's Razor and say that must be the cause because it's simpler. That's all I was saying. The hardover theory is disproven. It can't have been the cause because the facts that are 100% known and provable demonstrate it can't have been the cause. It doesn't matter if it's simpler, it can't be the reason. That's all I was saying.
 

peter4025

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Mar 10, 2010
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There are too many theories about what happened to flight 370. I'll introduce mine:
The Americans and members of G8 need a reliable gps plane tracking so they can control the air traffic. (Any kind of traffic , public, private, military and specially drugs and terrorism. They order certain companies to develop it. There is a company that started to develop a new gps tracking system based on the old Iridium Satellite Constellation. The system will be up an running by 2016. The governments want private sector to pay for it but it's a hard sell. We are talking billions of dollars. So they came with a plan, to hijack a regular airline plane. Now this hijacking has to look like an accident. They decided to take control of a plane from a small country. A pilot took control of the plane with a computer. (A program was already created to facilitate this and implanted in the planes mainframe). Now, they had to do something with the passengers. They forced the plane to fly at high altitude until the reserve oxygen was depleted. Everybody died. Then the plane was commanded to dip to a lower altitude to avoid commercial radars and flew to a remote are of the Indian Ocean where the knew it would be hard to find. They landed the plane in the ocean and let it sink. While they did this they diverted the search to another area so they could make sure that nothing could be found. The blame will be put to the pilots and there will be a mandatory introduction of the GPS technology. There is lots of money behind this and a few lives are not important.
Enjoy and call me crazy :)
 
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