You really don't know what you are talking about. The smaller the field the more votes Chow gets up to 52% 1 on 1. The larger the field every candidate gets fewer but she is STILL in first place.Not very well.
Ford's support is about 30 points lower than where it was on election day in 2010, and there's no indication that Chow has picked up any of that support.
Furthermore, your assertion that Chow will be able to position herself as an "anti-establishment" candidate is absurd.
You think an NDP candidate is "establishment" who is absurd?
Let me make this simple for you, If her name is in the poll, she comes first in every scenario devised by any pollster to date.