The mythic Ford Nation exists on fridge magnets and banners hung during summer barbecues, but when it comes to identifying who belongs to this hard-core group of people who support Mayor Rob Ford, even pollsters have been flummoxed.
John Wright, senior vice president at Ipsos Public Affairs, is often asked what kind of people belong to Ford Nation and hasn’t been able to answer. So this week he scoured his polling data tables to figure out who has stuck with the mayor, even after all the revelations of personal impropriety.
His first surprise was that Ford Nation — defined as those who will vote for Ford no matter what — for the most part don’t live in Etobicoke.
In fact, Ford only enjoys 16 per cent support in Etobicoke, the same level of backing he has downtown.
“He’s not popular in his own backyard,” said Wright.
The mayor is most popular in York and East York, where 30 per cent of voters say they’d support him. Next comes Scarborough, with 27 per cent, and North York, with 22 per cent.
Taking the data from a poll conducted Nov. 7-11 — results that came out before the last week of Ford news, including a historic stripping of many of his mayoral powers by council — Wright identified the hard-core supporters who will not abandon their mayor.
They are predominantly people with lower-income and lower education levels. Some 44 per cent of respondents who don’t have a high school diploma support Ford, while only 17 per cent of those with university degrees do.
People who make less than $40,000 per year are twice as likely to be part of Ford Nation than those who make $100,000 or more, according to his tables.
Ford Nation is also slightly more concentrated in the young and the old. Some 22 percent of respondents aged 18-34 still support Ford, as do 24 per cent of those over 55. Only 20 per cent of voters in the 35-44 age bracket support Ford.
“I think this is reflective of a younger, undereducated cohort who wants to ensure that taxpayers’ money is spent well,” said Wright.
Wright says Ford won election by combining his Ford Nation voters with higher-income and better educated people, a group he’s now “lost completely.”
“What’s happened is more-educated and higher-income voters, who may have been on board because they like the message of fiscal integrity and respecting taxpayers’ money, have gone away because they feel like they don’t like the behaviour,” he said.
