It seems to me, that Tiger can play well (enough to challenge for the lead) in spurts, but it has been a long time since he has put 4 solid rounds together the way he used to. He is too inconsistent.
I think to get that back he needs to play and play and play. He cannot cherry pick the tournaments he wants to play in because he needs to become tournament tough again. He needs to compete the way the 25th or 30th ranked golfer in the world does, because that is what he is now.
I would say that #20-#50 in the world is a good reflection of where he is at as a golfer right now.
But the argument could be made that he is still at top 10 player at the majors based on his finishes the last two years (even without a win). As I said, how many others have three top five finishes at majors. Granted, Augusta seems to fit well with Tiger.
As far the inconsistency comment, that is the very nature of a #20-#50 in the world. Yet many of these golfers are the type that have won majors the last three years... they enter outside of the top 20, yet they put together two big rounds or a solid week in a major and pull it out:
Angel Cabrera
Lucas Glover
Y.E Yang
Stewart Cink
Graeme McDowell
Louis Oosthuizen
Charl Scwartzel
Darren Clarke
That's 8 of the last 11 major winners -- they were not in the top 20 entering the majors. If you are a 20-30 golfer in the world that tends to play well in the majors, you have pretty decent chances to win a major over the next three to five years.
Of course your not good enough at that level to win multiple majors unless you are extremely lucky, let alone four or five. Then their is the complicating injury issue, which may not give him another "20" somewhat legit chances at a major.
But I think his odds at winniing another major are fairly good.
As for playing more, he will certainly get a chance to play alot if he plays fairly well the next little while with the Fed Ex Cup coming... if he qualifies for most of those events which is no gimme.