Pedro Martinez had only 219 wins. I'm sure Doc will at least match that and I don't think anyone doubts Pedro gets in.
Hall of Fame is about more than wins and losses. It's about being a transcendent player.
Pedro was much more dominant in his peak period then Halladay - not even clsoe . But I do think Halladay is OK if he has two more very good years, and then hangs on to get to at least 225 wins. The only current pitcher with.
Although Halladay has one of the best (if not the best) resumes of the current crop of starters playing today, you have to remember he is following an era that had the best group of dominant starters in a long, long time. That make it harder for him unless he can last a little while and distance himself a bit more.
I certainly think he has the ethic and durability to make it, but he has some work to do,
Randy Johnson
Roger Clemens
Greg Maddux
Pedro Martinez
Tom Glavine (less dominant then the other four but 300 wins).
You have two great closers who are shoe ins in Trever Hoffman and Mariano Rivera. You have to figure John Smoltz is pretty much in, and with 213 wins and three great years as a closer, you have to think it will take some time for Roy to reach those standards.
That's alot of pitchers getting in -- as I said Roy is the best of the current bunch of starters but following this group will most definetely hurt him, especially his chances of first ballot.
I sort of compare him right now to Ron Guidry after he turned 34. Guidry only won his first game at 26. He was coming off a 22-6 season, had a record of 154-68 over a nine year period in which he was arguably the best pitcher in baseball. But he was also following a group of great starters in the 70's (Perry, Carlton, Palmer, Jenkins)
That resume is very comparable to where Roy Halladay is right now. He proceeded to go 16-23 over the next three years, and is nowhere near hall of fmae consideration especially since all these greats were coming into the Hall every season after he retired. My point is that if Halladay does like Guidry, and struggles after this season he is not a HOF'er. So premature to call him a shoe in.
And BTW, yes I think will make it, but he is far from a shoe in, and I do not expect him to be a first ballot hall of famer.