WWF - Drilling in the Arctic

[onthebottom]

Vieter,

Perhaps that explains why all those dire predictions in the 70s of the world running out of oil in 30 years look so silly now.

OTB

 

[Asterix]

We are addressing the expanded use of coal. China, India and the US plan on bringing online more than 850 coal burning plants by 2012, 560 in China alone. None of these countries are bound by Kyoto in this, and China will likely be building theirs with a lower standard as to emissions. America has also been selling them out of date factory parts that no longer meet our environmental regulations. The surge of energy use in China, and how they respond or don't respond to polution controls, could dwarf any efforts made to improve air quality in the West.

 

[Vietor]

Jasmine, there is significant scientific authority supporting the theory that petroleum is generated from the earth's mantle. If that is the case, the supply for all practical purposes is limited only by our ability to find it.

 

[Vietor]

A good starting point can be found at www.gasresources.net/index.htm

 

[onthebottom]

Well the wonderful thing about a theory is they can suit, and be created to support any idea, thought, opinion etc...

Like global warming for example (although I tend to think that's correct).

It would be nice to think that oil will and has been self-producing for thousands of years... but... if that were true, how does it explain reserves that have reached its peak or have dried up?

Lava is self-producing but we don't see it in many cases where it's once exsisted.

There are many theories about the orgins of crude oil and whether, or more realistically, when it will be dried up completely... however, if or when really doesn't really excuse or explain the continuous use of something that has caused as much damage to this earth as it has.
Greenhouse gases is a FACT not a theory, and the burning of fossil fuels is the number one contributor...

That is more an argument not to burn it as opposed to not drilling for it, which I think started this thread.

OTB

 

[onthebottom]

Jasmin,

The Lava comment (I was just in Hawaii hiking the active lava flow so it's top of mind) was meant to demonstrate that an infinite resource could show up in a place and then run dry. If we are continuing to find oil at a faster rate than we're burning it may make sense that there's more of it than previously thought.

As for the drilling / burning issue. The more developed reserves there are the lower the price, which will cause more of it to be burned - but also affects standard of living. Not a one-dimensional issue I'm afraid.

OTB

 

[slowpoke]

Drilling is one of the the first steps yes, but eventually there's oil spills, or it's coming out the end of our tailpipes or being being used for something else....

Oil has many benefits, not the least of which is ability to transport ourselves and almost everything the eye can see, never mind the raw materials that are essential ingredients in almost everything we do and make. But there is a huge cost to the environmental health of the planet. You mentioned oil spills. Here are two perfect examples:

1) "Train derailment contaminates Alberta lake
CTV.ca News Staff

Clean-up has begun on a heavy fuel oil spill that has contaminated birds and boats on a popular Alberta resort lake.

The spill happened after a 43 cars of a 140-car freight train derailed early Wednesday on the shorts of Lake Wabamun west of Edmonton.

CN Rail spokesman Jim Feeny says 26 of those derailed cars were carrying the fuel oil.

He wasn't certain how many of them leaked or how much oil had spilled.

CFRN TV's Sheldon Larmand said at least four derailed cars were leaking.

"There is a river of oil flowing into Lake Wabamun," he said.

Besides oil, the train was carrying other freight, including grain and one car with a hazardous petrochemical, which wasn't affected by the derailment.

The incident closed CN's main line west of Edmonton, affecting Via Rail passengers currently in Jasper.

Some residential properties suffered damage, with one derailed car smashing into a garage.

One person told CFRN they had a "huge puddle of oil" in front of their cabin..."

http://sympaticomsn.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/1123100064270_118509264?hub=topstories

2) "Quebec train derailment causes fuel spill
Associated Press

LEVIS, Que. — Emergency crews including provincial Environment Department teams were working Wednesday to clean up a fuel spill caused by the derailment of a freight train.

Officials said about 150,000 litres of gasoline and diesel fuel leaked from some of the 18 cars of the 58-car train that jumped the tracks near Levis on Tuesday.

It was not necessary to evacuate any of the homes in the rural area along the St. Lawrence River because they were far enough away from the derailment site, Levis police said.

Environment Department spokesman Claude Sasseville said workers will clean the contaminated soil once the train cars have been cleared away.

He said there will likely be little environmental impact because the terrain around the track helped to contain the spill.

However, some area residents aren't so sure and have said they fear the fuel will seep into the ground near their homes..."

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/1092846469942_88255669?s_name=&no_ads=

 

[Asterix]

Vieter,

Perhaps that explains why all those dire predictions in the 70s of the world running out of oil in 30 years look so silly now.

OTB

The problem in trying to draw an analogy between the two, is that the situation today is completely different. Nearly all experts in oil exploration knew the world was not running out of oil in the 1970's and said so. Major oil reserves were still being discovered that were easily recoverable. Contrast that with today. 90% of the oil produced worldwide comes from wells at least 20 years old, and of that, 70% is from wells 30 years old. Oil fields are not like a bank account, where you can withdraw the last dollar as easily as you did the first. Once a well has been depleted by half, it becomes increasingly more difficult, and more expensive, to get the oil out. When the oil pressure is no longer high enough, companies pump in water to force the oil out. This works until the water reaches the well head, which effectively makes it unuseable. The largest Saudi fields are already at the mid point, including the massive Gharwar reserve. There is also evidence that the Saudi's have mismanaged their oil production, and have pumped some wells so aggressively that they have collapsed in on themselves, making the remaining reserve nearly unretrievable.

At the same time consumption is increasing dramatically, especially in China, and soon in India. Even if we could maintain current levels there is no way we could keep up with the coming demand. That there is a coming peak in oil production is less an issue, than when it will occur. Estimates are anywhere from 5 to 20 years. We are not going to wake up one day and read that the world has run out of oil, but will reach a point soon when it will begin to decline, and then things could get a little ugly. Interesting discussion on this very topic in the Wall Street Journal today.

 

[Vietor]

Jasmine, Petroleum is used for many, many other products than just those products used for combustion. In fact, a good argument can be made that using it for combustion is wasteful because it is so valuable otherwise.

At least some of the evidence of global warming suggests that it has been going on since before the start of the industrial revolution. I was recently in Alaska. Almost all of the glaciers there have been receding for the past 300 years. I do not doubt, however, that the burgeoning human population has had numerous effects upon the earth's environment.

Without regard for the genesis of petroleum, it is a fact that global known recoverable reserves are growing. Those naysayers who preach that we are running out of it give currency to the seemingly constant increase in prices at the pump. The refining process is more of a problem today than obtaining oil to refine.

 

[Vietor]

No, the pricing increases are caused by a multitude of factors. The shortage of refineries is, however, one of the more important factors. What I was trying to say is that creating the appearance of a shortage of oil acts as a justification for price increases, even when there actually is no shortage.

It is interesting to note who the buyers are when the price of oil is where it is. Exxon, for instance, is on the sidelines now, choosing to commit its billions of $$ of retained earnings toward deep sea gas and oil exploration. The chairman of Exxon was quoted in the Wall Street Journal a few months ago in an inteview wherein he said that he expected oil prices to drop back to the high $20's or low $30/ barrel because he thought that the pricing pressures were not largely supply / demand related.

 

[someone]

So if this is true then how are these people able to keep the prices rising without serious protest? The middle and lower classes are sufferring the most and the middle class in North America is actually getting smaller due to the higher costs of living.
I don't see the logic behind this arguement... if this is true, I think you would see much more attention and protest on th subject. To be honest this is the first I have heard of it and Im still not sure what I think.

When you adjust for inflation, the price of oil is not as high as it seems. In real terms it was much higher in the 1970s.

 

[Peeping Tom]

I wouldn't jump too fast on that one. Mineral economics follows a path where price determines the fraction of extractable resource out of the total reserve - move one and you move the other, sometimes with unexpected effects - this is not the simple case of installing more capital plant to meet market demand and neither does it rigidly follow economy of scale.

[...] he expected oil prices to drop back to the high $20's or low $30/ barrel because he thought that the pricing pressures were not largely supply / demand related.

I do agree that the current NA market is driven by the lack of refinery throughput for the forseeable future.