Will we ever see another 300 win pitcher ?
- Thread starter Bargnani_
- Start date
probably not..
Jaimie Moyer is closest..only 33 more to go but he's 47!
According to some analyst Lincecum..and Halliday have the best shot...but lincecum is 26 and halliday is 33...and both are about 100+ away....so that's 20 wins per season for atleast the next 5 years....injury free...
Personally with the atmosphere nowadays I don't see too many hitting 250 anymore, the days of the work horse pitchers throwing 300+ innings year after year is gone, you'll get the odd one but he would be the exception, not the rule.
Plus you gotta have the offence behind you too if your mates cant put up the runs and you are tossing 2-3 run games and still losing it'll be tough to rack up wins on a consistent basis
Jaimie Moyer is closest..only 33 more to go but he's 47!
According to some analyst Lincecum..and Halliday have the best shot...but lincecum is 26 and halliday is 33...and both are about 100+ away....so that's 20 wins per season for atleast the next 5 years....injury free...
Personally with the atmosphere nowadays I don't see too many hitting 250 anymore, the days of the work horse pitchers throwing 300+ innings year after year is gone, you'll get the odd one but he would be the exception, not the rule.
Plus you gotta have the offence behind you too if your mates cant put up the runs and you are tossing 2-3 run games and still losing it'll be tough to rack up wins on a consistent basis
Last edited:
There are only 24 with 300+ and a few that got close so not really that many made it to date. There are probably a few that will get there but is tougher than before since they go 6 or 7 and leave the rest to the bullpen these days.
This was the same sentiment back in the mid 80's after Seaver, Neikro, Carlton, Perry, and Sutton won their 300th games. And there was a long drought before them. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/300_win_club
Then in the early part of this century, Clemens, Maddux, Glavine and Johnson reached that milestone.
So I think it comes in waves.
Then in the early part of this century, Clemens, Maddux, Glavine and Johnson reached that milestone.
So I think it comes in waves.
#'s got skewed...but regardless..I still don't see it happening...
there was a big buildup with Strasberg in Washington..but his arm got tired too quick for him to take a shot at it....
I don't see any young pitcher coming up who can handle the 35 starts per year for the next 10-15 years....managers are shutting them down too soon on pitch counts...plus now you got early..middle and late releivers who specialize in 2-3 inning stints..
plus how many losses and no decisions were because of relievers who couldnt do the job?
there was a big buildup with Strasberg in Washington..but his arm got tired too quick for him to take a shot at it....
I don't see any young pitcher coming up who can handle the 35 starts per year for the next 10-15 years....managers are shutting them down too soon on pitch counts...plus now you got early..middle and late releivers who specialize in 2-3 inning stints..
plus how many losses and no decisions were because of relievers who couldnt do the job?
With free agencyy comes a bit more parity. A good pitcher can last usually 15 seasons(presumingmost come up now at age 24, 25). That's having to hit the 20 win mark every season. Since the advent of the 5 man rotation and less starts to work with I think it will become a rare thing.
It will be done. No doubt. Probably not by anybody with experience now... but the fact that 4 pitchers did it in the past 10 years in the 5 man rotation era. There will b a few guys that pitch until close to 45 like that bunch in the future. Instead of looking at it as 20 wins over 15 years, need to look at it as 15 wins over 20 years.
It won't happen much but it will a few times.
It won't happen much but it will a few times.
It's possible we see a 300 win guy, just not very probable. As much as I loved watching Doc take the mound every 5th day, I couldn't help but think that if he only pitched his whole career for the yanks or Red Sox he probably would've reached 300. I felt bad for the guy because he lost a ton of games 1-0, 2-1. Never had enough run support here.
Don't see Lincecum getting there either. Strasburgs arm won't hold up long enough. You have to look beyond this crop of pitchers to see the next potential 300 win guy. Fernandez on Miami will have a big year next year! Miami won't be able to afford him & he'll be the next Yankee ace in 5 yrs
Don't see Lincecum getting there either. Strasburgs arm won't hold up long enough. You have to look beyond this crop of pitchers to see the next potential 300 win guy. Fernandez on Miami will have a big year next year! Miami won't be able to afford him & he'll be the next Yankee ace in 5 yrs
pithing is still just 1 side of it...they can hold the opposition to 2-3 runs..but if the offence cant score 3-4..then it isn't gonna happen..
its a team effort..
what was the run count in those wins...theirs vs opposition
who were they pitching against?
grizzled vet against a rookie?
low ball pitcher who got a lot of ground outs against a high ball thrower who got a lot of flyouts...
these managers now a days will consider sitting a pitcher if its at a park like colorados simply because his guy in the rotation is a flyball pitcher and in the thin air more balls will carry....
its becoming a fricken science...
its a team effort..
what was the run count in those wins...theirs vs opposition
who were they pitching against?
grizzled vet against a rookie?
low ball pitcher who got a lot of ground outs against a high ball thrower who got a lot of flyouts...
these managers now a days will consider sitting a pitcher if its at a park like colorados simply because his guy in the rotation is a flyball pitcher and in the thin air more balls will carry....
its becoming a fricken science...
There is one pitcher with a shot pitchng right now... CC Sabathia. The guy is out of shape but he has always been a workhorse and never seriously hurt... he is very athletic and quite flexible as well despite his size.
His strikeout rate did drop this year to about 7.5, although he had a down year. But he has 205 wins after his age of 32 pitching season. Can he go eight more seasons and average 12 wins a season?
The key will be if last year was a trend that will continue or if he will get midway back to where he was in prior years.
His strikeout rate did drop this year to about 7.5, although he had a down year. But he has 205 wins after his age of 32 pitching season. Can he go eight more seasons and average 12 wins a season?
The key will be if last year was a trend that will continue or if he will get midway back to where he was in prior years.
Disagree - its extremely probable. Same thing was said 20 years ago... and 4 pitchers reached it... two surpassed it by 50.. and a journeyman with 30 wins before the age of 30, got to 265. Most of those guys looked like bad bets at 30 -- but they pitched until their 40's.. and as far we can tell only one juiced up. You can't identify the guys that win quite a few after 40, but there has been some and there will continue to be some.
It will take a pitcher with 20+ years experience like those guys,. Maybe a Clayton Kershaw, maybe a Felix Hernandez.... ... Dozens of other guys who will be at that pace over the next 50 years... all it takes is one to pitch well into his 40s.
Cosnider someone like Bartolo Colon, who has had 3 decent seasons at the age of 38, 39 and 40... with a scarred past and being out of shape.... no he will not get another 111 wins (not even close)... but I am showing it is a possibility of someone today still pitching well at that age.
Cy Young last 500 game winner.
Walter Johnson last 400 game winner.
?????? last 300 game winner.
250 wins is the new 300.
Walter Johnson last 400 game winner.
?????? last 300 game winner.
250 wins is the new 300.
Agree, I think it will happen every now and then.
I think Sabathia might be the next one to reach 300.
Clayton Kershaw(25) has a very good chance now that the Dodgers are back to spending and contending.
Lincecum is 29 and not even at 100 wins yet. He averages 14 wins per year. He would need some big win total seasons in the next few years.
Complete games now are as rare as a dodo bird. Pleasantly surprised that they allowed David Price to finish last night.
THIS is a big part of it....
say a pitcher gose 6 innings per start..for 35 starts per season.....210 innings per year....even though he could finish....manager saves his arm
3 innings per start...assume 1/2 those are home dates so he doesn't pitch the 9th...so roughly 50 innings a year....that's a big # over a 15 year career....
Arm is fresher ..has more pop..
how many complete games were pitched last year in the majors...based on games played?
Tom Seaver seems to think differently. i remember hearing about his interview while watching the Jays.
http://www.newsoxy.com/sports/tom-seaver-pitchers-babied-138981.html
Tom Seaver, MLB Hall of Fame, says that today’s baseball pitchers are babied way too much. In a recent interview, Seaver talked about the league and how players used to pitch 300 innings a season with no problem.
“Naturally, I felt terrible for [Harvey]. He’s got such a bright future. But at the same time, all I could think of was how it just goes to show how all this babying of pitchers — pitch counts and innings limits — is a bunch of nonsense. You can’t predict these things, and there’s really not a whole lot you can do to prevent them other than refining your mechanics…. But one way I know doesn’t do anything to prevent them is babying these kids like they do,” he told New York Daily News.
Seaver then talked about how the great pitchers of the 1960s and ’70s pitched 300 innings a season and had no problem with it.
“Take a look at all of them, [Juan] Marichal, [Ferguson] Jenkins, [Warren] Spahn, what do you think made them successful?” They conditioned their arms by pitching more, not less, starting from when they signed their first contract. Jenkins threw 300 or more innings half a dozen times. Same with [Jim] Palmer, [Steve] Carlton and Marichal.”
Seaver then turned to a war analogy.
“These kids today, they want to be men, they want to be foxhole guys, but they’re not being allowed to do that. Imagine if these computer geeks who are running baseball now were allowed to run a war? They’d be telling our soldiers: ‘That’s enough. You’ve fired too many bullets from your rifle this week!’”
One of the problems with MLB teams today is that they are too afraid to lose their franchise players to injury.
There will definitely be more 300-win pitchers, just not as many of them as there used to be. Sabathia is the most likely candidate, as others have mentioned, however he has had a few injuries recently. Clayton Kershaw is another possibility assuming he can stay healthy. Lincecum won't make it, he's already a much less effective pitcher than he was a few years ago, and he's being used more in the bullpen. Also, his throwing motion is more conducive to injuries. His teammate, Matt Cain, has a better chance, although he most likely won't make it either
I firmly believe that pitchers today are babied waaay too much, and should be pitching deeper in games. On the other hand, I'm not an orthopedic surgeon or a General Manager, so I don't know how damage this would cause. Some of the records like the single-season and career records for wins, complete games, shutouts, ERA, and innings pitched are simply never going to be broken. A record like Joe DiMaggio's consecutive hits streak is mathematically unlikely to be broken, but there's at least a slight possibility. The game in 2013 at least vaguely resembles the game in 1941 (when he set the record). Same thing goes with all hitting records. The only exception would be the single-season and career records for batting average, which will never be broken. But the game today is so far removed from the deadball era where most of the pitching records were set, that no pitcher will come close to some of these records
300 wins though? That will happen. Within a few years, there'll be at least one guy who does it, probably 2 or 3. 350 wins? Much less likely, but still in the realm of possibility. 400, 500 wins? Will never happen again
I firmly believe that pitchers today are babied waaay too much, and should be pitching deeper in games. On the other hand, I'm not an orthopedic surgeon or a General Manager, so I don't know how damage this would cause. Some of the records like the single-season and career records for wins, complete games, shutouts, ERA, and innings pitched are simply never going to be broken. A record like Joe DiMaggio's consecutive hits streak is mathematically unlikely to be broken, but there's at least a slight possibility. The game in 2013 at least vaguely resembles the game in 1941 (when he set the record). Same thing goes with all hitting records. The only exception would be the single-season and career records for batting average, which will never be broken. But the game today is so far removed from the deadball era where most of the pitching records were set, that no pitcher will come close to some of these records
300 wins though? That will happen. Within a few years, there'll be at least one guy who does it, probably 2 or 3. 350 wins? Much less likely, but still in the realm of possibility. 400, 500 wins? Will never happen again
