Most reasonably intelligent skeptics and cynics have accepted the impossibility of machines exhibiting true intelligence since the earliest days of electronics. Meanwhile, technology has advanced uninhibited towards that inevitability...
It's a process that has continued at a mathematically constant rate, not just since the beginning of computing... not just since the beginning of electronics... not just since the beginning of mechanics... not just since the beginning of mathematics... not just since the beginning of civilization... not just since the beginning of humanity... but since the beginning of life. Yep... the computational power of life on earth has been increasing at a consistent rate for about 4 billion years. Read Ray Kurzweil's "The Age of Spiritual Machines" for details and in-depth analysis of the trend.
It's really excellent how humanity never ceases to be so arrogant as to imagine that they are the pinnacle of that process. In the late 80s, Kurzweil predicted that within a few years, a machine would beat the world's chess champion (which was then unthinkable). But what's really cool is that he also predicted how we would react: not by increasing our respect for machine intelligence, but by decreasing our respect for chess.
Since then, we've developed "neural nets," computers capable of recognizing faces or finger-prints... again, once considered impossible for any kind of machine, no matter how sophisticated. Experts have been fooled by paintings and new "Bach" compositions made by machines. Major break-throughs are due any day in organic computing, evolutionary algorthyms, nanotechnology, and quantum computing. Any of those will represent a leap forward in computing about an order of magnitude greater than the invention of the silicon chip.
Ten years ago, in the above-mentioned book, Kurzweil did the math and worked out when augmented humans and intelligent machines would be at very similar levels of intelligence: 2049.
So the dude in the article originally posted is only 10 years late in making a similar prediction! lol Not only are real, intelligent "machines" inevitable, the only real way we can stop it happening in the long term is to end all life on Earth! Which, granted, there's still a chance we'll manage to do...
