Week 9 -vindication.

[healer677]

Hammer jumped all over the GB pick on the week 8 thread for this week.

The early lines are up - Stardust here, bet365 on line. There's 5 matches I am loving and about 4 that are almost untouchable. Let's start with the openers, shall we. Remember gents these lines are not teased, so you're seeing them; as is.

KC at StL -3
Cin at Blt -3
Hou at NYG -13
Ten at Jax OTB for now
Dal at Wsh OTB for now
GB at Buf -3 - are you fucking kidding?
NO at TB pick'em
Atl -5 at Det
Mia at Chi -13.5
Min at Sf OTB for now
Cle at SD -12.5
Den at Pit -2 -another one -are you kidding?
IND at NE OTB for now
Oak at Sea -7.5

I'm feeling lucky this week.lol

 

[healer677]

Some spread just out -

STL dropped .5 already to 2 1/2
Ten at Jax -9
Dal -3 at Wsh
NO -1 at TB

 

[healer677]

Let's begin the discussion -

As much as I love GB vs Buffalo, I can't make it my lock-of-the-week.

This early in the week I'll call my lock and my no-touches. My lock isn't a surprise but it should impress mrpolarbear.

The lock of the week -

Miami in Chicago at -13 1/2 - Chicago were 16 1/2 point favorites against SF and they covered that...in the first half. The Bears are playing some of the best ball I've seen in years. Balanced at both ends of the field. SI rated Urlacher as one of the most overrated players in the league (lol) 36 tackles so far and 19 assists this year. Miami has been the biggest disappointment of the year and I can see the Bears covering a trifecta here -covering for moneyline bets, a 7 point teaser bet and an outright cover of a double digit spread. Take the Bears. Hope for rain and you might be able to squeeze in an under.

No-touches -

Kansas City at StLouis - StLouis opened as a field goal favorite but the sharp money dropped that down to 2 1/2 in a hurry. These two teams are too hard for me. St Louis barely covered a 16 point spot against SD for me and KC barely beat a depleated Seattle team. Now facing each other, I'd rather not touch this one.

Dallas at Washington - Dallas opened as field goal favorites against the skins. After a good comeback game by Romo this game for me is a big no-touch. Dallas and Washington is like a Leafs /Canadiens rivalry. It doen't matter what their standings are, these two teams play each other all out. For me that's enough.

Cincinnati at Baltimore -Baltimore played inspired ball on the road in New Orleans and came out with a big win. Baltimore looks like they're finding their groove again and that makes them dangerous. Despite Ocho Cinco's guarantees, the Bengals got skunked by the on again, off again Falcons. This game is too close for me to call. They're giving Blt a field goal here for openers.

and last but not the least.

Indianapolis in New England - Unless (and this is a stretch), unless NE is favored by 3 or more (becuase they're at home and all and pending tonights Vikes game), there is no way I'm touching this one. Indy showed that they can take defenses apart and New England is...New England...and they're at home. This is a cancer bet. No go for me.

Thats it for now. Up next are my faves for the week and my luke warm bets.

Enjoy the Monday night game gents. Good luck to all.

 

[homonger]

When I looked at the Week 9 schedule this morning, I thought we would see some big lines. I thought Chicago could easily be -20 vs. Miami, so I'd say -13.5 is a relative bargain. I also thought we'd see NYG -16 or so vs. Houston and SD -14 or thereabouts vs. Cle.

I think we'll see Jax -12 vs. Tenn, Dallas -7 vs. Wash, Minn -7 vs. SF, and NE -1.5 vs. Indy in the days to come. Based on these early lines, I like the Chiefs, Ravens, Seahawks, Bears, and the New York football Giants. If the line in the Jax/Tenn game comes in at -9 or -10, I like that one too.

I don't think Buff -3 vs. GB or Pitt -2 vs. Den are bad lines. Buff and GB are two lousy to mediocre teams, so it's basically a home team line. Pittsburgh is a tough place to play, and Denver hasn't really been all that impressive, despite their 5-2 record. Still, I probably avoid both of those games.

 

[Smash]

SI rated Urlacher as one of the most overrated players in the league (lol) 36 tackles so far and 19 assists this year.

Are they smokin crack or what?

That guy was reason they came back and beat the cards last week. That guy made several key plays in the 4th to turn the tables on zona. I watched that game and shook my head watchin him run from sideline to sideline chasing down players..

 

[mrpolarbear]

I think your lock of the week is a good one healer. I cant see anybody coming into Soldier Field and even giving DA BEARS a good game this year. It does suprise me that they are only 13- point favorites though. I just hope they arent looking past the Fish come Sunday. After that i think we will see just how good they could be when they go on their 3 week road trip . The Giants and Pats are going to be their two toughests games of the year. If they can take one of those and i hope its the Giants since its a conference game i will be happy even tough that means 16 and 0 is gone. As for praying for rain Sunday please dont this time of year rain sucks but i would take some snow. The forecast is for cloudy skies and a temp of 54.

 

[homonger]

Are they smokin crack or what?

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/players/10/24/poll.1024/index.html

This was a poll among 361 NFL players, and TO actually "won", with 10% of the vote. You have to wonder about any poll where 4% actually say Peyton Manning is the most overrated player in the NFL.

 

[homonger]

I'm now seeing Jax -10, Dallas -3, Minn -5.5, and NE -2.5, which leads me to think I have no future as a sports handicapper. I like Jax and Dallas at these prices, Minny less so, and wouldn't touch NE or Indy with a ten foot pole.

There are some big spreads out there this week, but once again, I think Chicago and SD will continue their home field mojo and cover. Baltimore looked good last week, and Cincy just doesn't seem to have figured out what kind of team it is yet, so I like Balt -3 there. I also like Dallas -3 vs. Wash. I think the honeymoon with Romo continues, and let's face it, Washington stinks.

I am thinking of going healer-style, and trying a four team +7 teaser of:

Chicago -6.5
NYG -6
Jax -3
Balt +4

 

[healer677]

Let's mix it up a bit this week.

There are six match ups I absolutely love. So much so that I'll be taking my top five or six picks and playing them on a money-line wager for let's say half my weekly stake. Now, I take them on the money line, I'll also mix and match them inside 7 point teaser parlay tickets thru the weekend.

Let's begin -now everybody knows I took the Bears as a lock -that means they're in all the tickets.

Houston at NYG -A balmy, friendly, inviting venue is what Houston needs right now. Unfortunately they're going up north to visit the pass rushing G-men. Expect Carr to be laid out more than a punch drunk prize fighter. I'm taking the G-men on a moneyline and a 7 point teaser bet -thats G-Men minus 6. I can't see Houston winning this.

Green Bay vs Buffalo - Favre's rating aren't bad and like I said last week -he's having fun. His Swan song year may actually earn him a respectable .500 season, considering how bad the rest of the team looks. Green is running better. Lose-man is shit -he's an int machine, he is a total liability to that team but Jauron won't hook this guy. On top of that their O-line is a mess right now. I'll take GB on a moneyline and at PLUS 10 on a teaser.

Denver vs Pittsburgh - I personally think Denver will straight up win this game vs the faltering Steelers. Manning carved up the Broncos D and they'll be looking to kick the shit out of someone for it. The 2-5 Steelers will have to rely on thier pivot not to farking force passes down the middle for ints. I said at the beginning of the season that Bettis was a massive loss to this team now, it's showing. I'll take Denver on a moneyline and PLUS 5.

Atlanta at Detroit - Atlantas offense is firing on all cylinders. I just hope Vick doesn't go back to throwing like shit. I think they should have enough to beat the Lions. I have ATL at plus 1 1/2 on the teaser and a straight up win on a moneyline.

Cleveland at SanDiego- the Browns can't stop the run. They have no corners. SD puts up 30plus ppg -Merriman is out for 4 and OLB Phillips is out as well. So what. Cleveland is a shitty team -run on them like Lionel Richie...all night long. SD should easily win this and cover a minus 5 1/2 point spread.

These are the top picks with the lock. Now for the rest....

Tennesse at Jacksonville - Leftwich has a hard on for the Titans. The D is questionable -27 vs Houston but 6 vs Eagles. Which D will show up. I'll take the Jags on a minus 2 1/2 pt teaser. BTW the last time they played the Jags skulled them for an early 41-0 lead.

Indy at NE - I know, I know -but plus 10 for the Colts?! Come on. That's too easy.

homonger -would you consider the Colts PLUS 10?

That's my week. Good luck gents and good betting!

 

[slowandeasy]

KC at StL -3--- Take KC.. Huard is doing well, and running game is great
Cin at Blt -3 -- Tough call, but I am going to take Baltimore
Hou at NYG -13--- Giants have a bunch of injuries... but should still cover
Ten at Jax --- Tennessee for the upset.. Jax should be favored
Dal at Wsh ---- Dallas by 3
GB at Buf -3 - Green Bay no brainer
NO at TB --- N.O. should rebound from the loss
Atl -5 at Det -- Atlanta (but Vick could still stink)
Mia at Chi -13.5 - Too many points Take Mia to cover
Min at Sf -- Minnesota + 4
Cle at SD -12.5 -- SD is in turmoil but should be able to cover...
Den at Pit -2 -another one -are you kidding?... Denver
IND at NE--- Indy loses in NE... cold weather more difficult for offence of Indy
Oak at Sea -- Seattle + 6

 

[healer677]

The more I look at it -Baltomire PLUS 4 on a teaser at home might have some value.....

 

[slowandeasy]

The more I look at it -Baltomire PLUS 4 on a teaser at home might have some value.....

For sure... I think that they are getting better and better. That defence should put alot of pressure on Cinci and the offensive line of Cinci is not that healthy... Baltimore has beaten some good teams, and the victory in NO was definitely a momentum builder....

 

[healer677]

Baltimore on the road beat New Orleans quite convincingly last week. And by the looks of it, they may have a bit of that confidence back -NO was suppose to be a contender for a division title with that blistering start and that seeming invincible air they had at home.

At this point in time, I'm pot comitted. I have Baltimore (on a teaser at PLUS 4) on three of my five tickets. There's just something about them this week that I'm liking a lot.

I decided to play a monster moneyline ticket that pays off at 3.49 to 1 but I feel good about these teams winning straight up - NYG, Da Bears, Denver, San Diego and Atlanta. Hopefully this one comes in.

My 4 ticket 7-point teaser parlays are 5, 6 and 7 team combinations of -Baltimore plus 4, NYG -6, Jax - 2.5, GB plus 10, Atl -1.5, Chicago -6.5, SD -5.5, Denver plus 10 and Indy plus 10.

 

[homonger]

Bad news, healer old bud. I like all of your picks, which means you're screwed, lol.

 

[ottawasub]

Despite my horrible record last week, I`m going with:

Detroit over Atlanta: Somehow I just see this as a game where Atlanta may go in thinking they`re better than they actually are after their last two wins and get beat by a Detroit team who will be back at full-strength after the bye week.

Jacksonville over Tennessee: I understand why Fisher suspended Pacman, because they want to nip his attitude problems in the bud, but it`s going to sacrifice this game because without him their Defence and punt returns are fucked. Also, Jacksonville has pitched shutouts in their last two home games.

Washington over Dallas: Dallas is another team that may go in this Sunday thinking they`re better than they are after a big win. Washington needs this game badly; playing desperate can work sometimes. Home underdogs in divisional games are 10-4 ATS this season.

San Francisco over Minnesota: 1) San Fran usually plays well after getting blown out the week before. 2) Every weakness Minnesota has was exposed by the Pats on Monday. 3) Road teams playing in a city at least two hours difference in time zones from their city are doing horrible this year (0-5 ATS last week) 4) The Vikings traditionally play poorly the week before they play Green Bay (3-10 straight-up since `99)

Chicago over Miami: I hate the big spread, but it`s Chicago at home where they`ve won every game by at least 27 pts. Miami is winless on the road and hasn`t beat the spread anywhere yet this season.

Smaller bets: Baltimore, New England and Tampa. Good luck everybody.

BTW: did you guys hear Thiesmann during the Monday Night game? In the 1st quarter he`s saying that Brad Johnson deserves a multi-year contract extension; by the 4th quarter he`s saying that the Vikings need to get a quarterback.

 

[slowandeasy]

KC at StL -3--- Take KC.. Huard is doing well, a
Cin at Blt -3 -- Tough call, but I am going to take Baltimore
Hou at NYG -13--- Giants have a bunch of injuries... but should still cover
Ten at Jax --- Tennessee for the upset.. Jax should be favored
Dal at Wsh ---- Dallas by 3
GB at Buf -3 - Green Bay no brainer
NO at TB --- N.O. should rebound from the loss
Atl -5 at Det -- Atlanta (but Vick could still stink)
Mia at Chi -13.5 - Too many points Take Mia to cover
Min at Sf -- Minnesota + 4
Cle at SD -12.5 -- SD is in turmoil but should be able to cover...
Den at Pit -2 -another one -are you kidding?... Denver
IND at NE--- Indy loses in NE... cold weather more difficult for offence of Indy
Oak at Sea -- Seattle + 6

KC, Baltimore, N.O, Miami, Denver, Seattle covered for me... That makes me
6 - 8 this week..... not a great week.. and disappointing losses for Atlanta, Minnesota, Dallas, and the Giants not covering...

 

[homonger]

Another ho-hum week.

Chicago, NYG, Dallas all failed to cover.

Balt and Jax were winners. I also hit on SF/Minn <43, and Den/Pitt > 36.5 so at least there was some profit.