Week 8 -took a beating but keeps on ticking

[healer677]

Week 8 lines are up. Took more one leg losses over the weekend. A close loss on the SD/KC game killed my morning tickets and surprisingly enough I got lucky on a push on the TB game -Philly had no business being that close yesterday. I got a squeaker in Atlanta, I got Pittsburgh at plus 5. But Seattle killed me. Now the injuries become a major factor for the 'Hawks -they're not looking good on the road in Arrowhead this week. I should have taken Oakland -I called a win on that one but didn't move on it. Oh well.

The early lines are up. I'll stick to my 7 point teaser parlays but these are the line as of this morning -sans teaser.

Houston at Tennessee -3
Jacksonville at Philly -6
Atlanta at Cincinnati -4.5
Tampa Bay at NYG -off the board for now
San Fran at Chicago -16
Seattle at Kansas City -off the board
Arizona at GB -3
Baltimore at New Orleans -2.5
StLouis at San Diego -9
Pittsburgh at Oakland - off the board
NYJ at Cleveland -1.5
Indy at Denver -2.5
Dallas at Carolina - off the board
New England -2.5 at Minnesota

This week looks like lousy matchups but there must be a few gems in this pile. Almost all the home teams are favored, except for NE. So far the only "values" (and with this weeks' lineup, I use that term very loosely) I can see are - Philly plus 1, teased of course, Bears minus 9, Pittsburgh -regardless of the spread and New England. That's all I can spot. Looks like I'll be looking for a lot of help this week.

My no-touches are fairly easy:
Houston at Tennessee -pick you poison. Garbage match up.
Dallas at Carolina and believe it or not - Indy at Denver. This will be a great game but outdoors...weather...Indys running game is coming around but the Snake has been screwing with me for years -I probably won't touch this one.

 

[Choron]

oh man I won a nice bet from my bookie on the texans/jags game

 

[Dimitri]

week 7 and 8

week 7 was my first week i lost money......it happens i guess but i like dthe week going in 8 looks messy but well sort throgh it

 

[healer677]

ok -it looks like KC is looking good at home. Hasselbeck is out for a few weeks, so that just adds to the teams' injury problems.

Rumor has it Big Ben suffered a concussion, but MRI was negative and he didn't break anything in his melon -so they'll list him as questionable, but; I'm willing to bet he'll play. Besides even if he doesn't play, I trust Batch to run that offense.

I want the StL/SD line to move down a bit more with Merriman's supension. I'm hoping it'll crawl down to less than 6. If it does, that makes it a great teaser bet for the Chargers at home plus points. Foley and Speegle will have to step it up to cover the outside spot.

I'm not touching the Denver game, but the loss of left tackle Lepsis is big. Is the Snake right handed? If so -the only thing saving his ass in the pocket would be his left tackle.

Let me start this week's betting with -THE LOCK OF THE WEEK.

At 5-1 and with their recievers coming around and a slowly improving running game my lock for this week is New England PLUS 4 1/2. New England does something a lot of teams can't do....win consistently. Indy has a better QB but NE knows how to win. IMO they have the best coach in the league and NE does something on the field which is peculiar. They're never in panic mode -everything is done slowly, methodically and done right.
Minnesota had a huge win vs Seattle -but that was after Hasselbeck left the game -up to that point it was tied. WR WIlliamson left the game early with a concussion -rumor has it he'll play vs NE. Minnesota is 4-2 and has fared well with teams around the .500 mark -their 2 losses came from Chicago (not a surprise) and Buffalo.

That being said -so far, I have the one lock for the week and teams on my "no touch" list, now I just have to take a closer look at the rest. Hopefully there's 5 match ups out there worth betting on.

Any suggestions?

 

[freakshow]

I think the rams are a lock this week, 9 points is too much for chargers, rams are a decent team, especially with the Meriam situation now, the are short linebackers

 

[mrpolarbear]

Are you gonna take DA BEARS -16. If you get them on your teaser can you shave your seven either way, I never really messed around with them much so i dont know a whole lot about them.

 

[dj1470]

my lock for this week is New England PLUS 4 1/2.
Any suggestions?

Your lock for this week is a loser. Past six years+ Vikes are 15-1 when dogged by 4 or less at home and the winner had covered only once making it about a 6% bet that NE can cover. Not a good bet. "Home sweet dome". Besides, despite who they have played, the Vikes have not given up more than 20 this season against some good teams - Chi, Car, and Sea. NE will have to run against one of the best inside running defences in the league this year. This one looks good on paper but is a suckers bet for sure to go with NE.

 

[homonger]

Still haven't seen a line yet on OAK/Pitt or CAR/Dallas, but I suspect we will see something like a +9 for Oakland, and a -1 or pick 'em for Carolina.
I dont like either game.

Like healer, I also don't like TENN/Hou or DEN/Indy. The only games that are jumping out at me right now are SD -9 vs. StL and CHI -16 vs. Sf. That's a lot of points to lay out but SD and Chicago are totally different teams at home, and are a combined 5-0 ATS at home this season.

I'm waiting to see a line to NYG/Tb too. If I see something in the neighborhood of NYG -6 or -7, I'm going to jump on it. But I suspect we'll see something higher and I'd then have to think about it.

I kind of also like MINN +2.5 vs. Ne, Jax +6 vs. PHI, and CIN -4.5 vs. Atl. I'm not crazy about any of them, but they're the best I can find.

 

[ottawasub]

Tom Brady as a starter is 17-1 on turf. That`s enough to make the Pats a safe bet for me.

 

[healer677]

Homonger you did not get your wish -TB at NY football Giants opened at 9 1/2. That's a decent number on a tease though for 2 1/2 but I doubt they'll give us points plus the recent 3-0 (since the big calling out the coach incident by Shockey) NYG. I can live with Arrington gone for the season but I need to look at Umenyiore's hip flexor injury -you lose him, you seriously diminish the Giants's pass rush attack with only Strahan rushing in.

Brady is a horse on turf -most of the wins the past six years for the Vikings were under the Culpepper / Moss era, both of whom are gone. They may even play a woozy wide reciever. That stat is deceiving -Brady at 17-1 on turf is compelling. You only need two constants in NE -Brady and Belichek -everybody else is expendable. NE just wins. Plus 4 1/2 makes them a comfortable lock for me.

Sea at KC looks like a decent bet though. It opened at KC -6 (plus 1 on a tease). IMO Seattle is screwed -the whole offense is out of synch with all the injuries for now.

Pittsburgh opened at minus 9 on the road vs Oakland -I can live with the Steelers minus 2 and minus Ben. Their D is stout and Batch can move that offense.ok -that and even with Oakland's win (which I predict will be one of maybe two wins all year) -it was against a rookie QB, at home.

I'm liking GB at home too -nice and cold...GB weather. That and the fact that on a tease they're plus 4 instead of minus 3. Favre is looking better -he and Driver had a good time last week vs Miami on the road. That was a big win, GB struggles in Miami and at home, do not discount the home field advantage here.

Here's on for you homonger -Carolina is minus 5 1/2. This is game 1 of a 3 game road stint for the 'boys. I hate this match up and I hate this line.

Chicago is creeping up -it's up to 16 1/2. No worries there. At home in that lovely stadium, I'm sure the boys from the bay will feel right at home. I feel they can cover this outright and with a teaser it's a no-brainer.

Blt/NO line has moved down to -2 for NO....hmmm....I'm liking the Raven here plus 9. 9? looks like a good number.

 

[homonger]

My wish for a lower line on the NYG game was just that, wishful thinking. NYG -9.5 is a reasonable line, in my estimation. I think I avoid that one for now, but I might come back to it.

I am a little surprised at CAR -5.5. Has Romo definitely been named the starter? I watched the 'Boys implode vs. the Giants last night, and all the "experts" seem to think Romo is going to be the QB for the rest of the season. I also thought it was funny that one of the announcers used the word "statuary" to describe Bledsoe. In fairness to him though, I don't think any QB could have escaped the Giants' pass rush last night. They did sack Vick 7 times the week before, and he isn't exactly "statuary". But I think I like Dallas in this one.

Pittsburgh -9 as I predicted. Again, I think that is a very fair line. So fair, in fact, that I think I avoid this one too.

 

[healer677]

I guess now it's put up or shut up time. Half way thru the season and I'm looking at the hardest lines so far this year. A few of these games are outright garbage match ups and a few can go either way even with a tease.

So here they are, in no particular order -the game is 7 point teaser parlays.

ok- first things first -games I like a lot. I already put NE as my lock of the week but these matchups look good on paper right now. I'll use these 3 matchups and NE as my anchors.

JAX 3-3 125-101 0-3 away and 1-1 vs NFC at Philly 4-3 200-147 2-1 home and 1-0 vs AFC - The Eagles deserved to lose that game vs TB. They fell behind 17 points on 2 defensive tds. McNabb had a horrible 1st half and a remarkable 2nd half. TBs Bryant's 62 yarder was a fluke. Philly plays an open style offense and the team managed 22 1st downs 500 plus yds of offense. But turnovers on ints and penalties killed them -sloppy crap. I don't see a bad third outing from this team. The NFC East is still wide open and they have to win this one. I'll take Philly as a plus 1.

SF 2-4 124-194 0-2 away and 1-2 vs NFC vs Da' Bears 6-0 180-59 3-0 at hme and 5-0 vs NFC -The Bears are laying up 16 1/2 here, thats a lot. But this is possibly the best team in the league. 2nd rank defense defense combined with the number 1 rank offense. I'll take the 16 1/2 but since it's a teaser, I'll be happy to take the Bears minus 9 1/2.

Pittsburgh 2-4 144-125 0-3 away 2-3 in the AFC vs Oakland 1-5 72-135 1-2 at home nad 0-4 NFC - Pittsburgh is not doing well this year. But Oakland is absolute rubbish. I called their only win last week -even the shittiest team can and will win one or two, this game isn't going to be one of those two. Pittsbugh is a solid defensive team and Batch is a good QB. Oakland had 5 turnovers vs Arizona -their QB got sacked 3 times and that's against Arizonas D. Pittsburgh is in a must-must win week.. On paper the Steelers beat Atl but costly fumbles and penalties cost them. Ben played well until "the hit". It came down to a coin toss and that didn't go the Steelers' way. Ward had a ward-like game 8 for 117 yds and 3 tds. I'll take the Steelers minus 2.

The rest of my picks in no order at all -

Atlanta 4-2 124-107 1-1 on the road at Cincinnnati 4-2 128-113 2-1 at home -on paper they look even. So I'll take the Bengals with home field plus 2 1/2. I still think Vick can't pass and I'm willing to bet it's a lot harder to win on the road for him.

TB 2-4 85-125 0-2 on the road vs NYG 3-2 127-109 1-1 at home. Jr. Manning looks good -his numbers from last year are almost unbelievable. They're on a streak and it's all good for the Giants right now. TB is lucky. I don't think they can hang with the Giants D. I'll take the Giants minus 2 1/2. thats a great number on a teaser.

AZ 1-6 120-165 0-3 on the road vs GB 2-4 121-162 0-3 at home. GB is bound to win a home game sooner or later. Last week they looked like ....GB. The Cards almost beat the Steelers 2 weeks ago and last Sunday the Raiders.....THE RAIDERS! violated them - 9 first downs, 50 yds rushing, 3 sacks 2 fumbles?! If GB can win in Miami (something they've always had a hard time with), they should be able to beat a deflated Cards team in the lovely, balmy confines of Lambeau. I'll take GB plus 4.

Seattle at Kansas City -Larry Johnson looks like Larry Johnson. Seattle is a mess right now. They had squandered an early 17 point lead last week but managed a win vs the SD defense. I'll take KC here plus 1 -Seattle is in a tight bind right now -in an earlier thread I mentioned "THE CURSE" -is this the start of it?

I'm tempted to take NO at home but Baltimore's D is the real deal. Both coming off byes......both division leaders...I'll take Baltimore plus 9 1/2 on this one. That's a big number, too big to pass up.

Same with the NYJ in Cleveland -I have no idea how 1-5 Browns are favored over the 4-3 Jets. But Jets plus 8 1/2? I'll take that. Pennington is looking a bit better but the running game with Leon Washington and his 2 consecutive 100 yd games sold me on this pick.

This last one bothers me....

freakshow -you're right the Rams at plus 16 should be a lock. 16 is a monster number but SD is at minus 2......but homonger you're right SD and Chicago are monsters at home -but 16 is too much to pass up. I'll take the Rams plus 16.

That's about it. Good luck all.

Another little note -I usually play a stupid 10, 11 or 12 team teaser parlay and I threw in Indy at plus 9 1/2 -personally for a throw away ticket I think that's a great number vs the Broncos but I don't have the coins to throw that in as part of my regular picks.

 

[homonger]

I should never read these threads--they just confuse me even more. But since I am not doing so well on my own, I should be glad for any help.

I think I am committed to SD and Chicago. I don't tease, so that is a lot of points to give. Still, I don't see a lot else I like here.

The tough ones for me are Philly/Jax and Cincy/Atl. Jax started out 2-0 and remember how some people were saying they were the best team in the AFC? Seems laughable now. This is a must-win for both teams, so in the end I think you have to go with home field and the better QB. So it's Philly -6 for me.

I, too, am not a Vick fan, and for the last couple of years, Atlanta has just been incredibly inconsistent. They look great then terrible, and so forth. Again, I think I have to go with the home team and better QB (Palmer).

Then there is the Carolina/Dallas game. I think this is a close game, and -5.5. points might be a little too much to give. But how much faith can I have in Romo? I'll probably vacillate on this one for a few more days but I am leaning toward Dallas.

I make a point not to gamble on games I have a personal interest in, but I might have to take the New York football Giants -9.5 vs. TB. The G-Men are on a roll right now, although there may be a letdown after the big win in Dallas. The loss of Arrington is not that big a deal, imo, they were decimated last year at the linebacker position and still won the NFC East. Last night's game was really the first time this season he made a visible impact, and I attribute that more to Dallas' sorry offensive line than anything.

Somehow, though, I don't think anyone will be talking about this game as the "Barber Bowl". Just not as sexy as the "Manning Bowl" matchup from Week 1. Do you realize this is the 3rd matchup between brothers the Giants have been involved in this year? There was also the far less celebrated "Hasselbeck Bowl" from Week 3.

 

[healer677]

If we were playing straight spreads I'd take da' Bears and the Chargers in a New York minute too. Chicago at home is too much for most .500 teams never mind the Niners. The Rams are a quiet division leader for good reason -they're not the same "Greatest show on turf" and I think SD is a better team straight up. For me, a teased score of almost three scores is way too hard to pass up though.

I'd even be happy taking the G-Men at almost a double digit spread only because of their pass rush, an improving young QB and an inspired ready to retire RB. Jr. won't make as many mistakes as Romo and Bledsoe and I can't see the TB D line applying that kind of pressure on him. TB is backend loaded on D and I think an early running attack can burn that secondary if and when they cheat up on the Cover2.

As for me -when two teams are truly horrible or evenly mediocre I almost always go with the better QB and/or home field.

I can't get around the Dallas match up. 5 1/2 is an obscure number. The Tuna will certainly ream out his O-line and they might play better but was it too early to hook Bledsoe? Did he deserve that? Overall IMO he wasn't playing all that bad. The G-Mens pass rush is devastating and their linebackers are animals -it wasn't all Bledsoe's fault. Shit IMO Romo didn't fare much better. I don't think Bledsoe will start -Tuna's ego won't allow it. But if he does I would be really surprised.

 

[homonger]

Apparently the pick Bledsoe threw in the red zone just before the half was the straw that broke the camel's back for Parcells. I don't think Parcells faulted Bledsoe for the sacks and the safety, although there was one sack he definitely could have avoided. I think being benched in the middle of a nationally televised game is a humiliation that effectively ends Bledsoe's career.

The 'Boys definitely moved the ball more consistently with Romo at the helm, but he got sacked a few times and threw 3 picks, so it's tough to say he was an upgrade. But I agree with you, I don't think the Tuna can turn back now. He's got to roll the dice with Romo, which is a tough assignment for the kid, taking over in the middle of a playoff run. I don't see this ending well for Parcells.

 

[healer677]

College money lines....

I know this has nothing to do with NFL betting but....

I was speaking to a friend who is a huge college football bettor and he gave me a tip I thought I'd share with everyone else. He's got a 7 team money line parlay for this week - Clemson (playing today), Tulsa (tomorrow), Texas, Texas A&M, Western Michigan, Wake Forest and Vanderbilt.

I can't honestly say I know anything about college ball but he was insistent that this was going to come in. I figured for a few bucks why not see if it does.

I thought I'd share. Good luck all.

 

[slowandeasy]

Houston at Tennessee -3---- I would take Tennessee
Jacksonville at Philly -6 ---- Jacksonville-- Don't know why
Atlanta at Cincinnati -4.5--- Cincy (Vick is too inconsistent)
Tampa Bay at NYG - --- Giants are coming around quite nicely
San Fran at Chicago -16 --- Chicago, I don't trust Bears offence,but D scores
Seattle at Kansas City ----- Seattle hands down
Arizona at GB -3 --- Arizona bounces back
Baltimore at New Orleans -2.5 -- New Orleans riding high
StLouis at San Diego -9 --- Chargers
Pittsburgh at Oakland ---- Pittsburgh (no matter what the line)
NYJ at Cleveland -1.5 ---- Jets..
Indy at Denver -2.5--- Indy
Dallas at Carolina - Carolina - 9 pts
New England -2.5 at Minnesota --- New England

Last week, I think I was 7-?-1

 

[Smash]

New England does something a lot of teams can't do....win consistently. Indy has a better QB but NE knows how to win. IMO they have the best coach in the league

I agree.... I think he's the best coach ever in pro sports.. This guy wins with 2nd 3rd stringers as if they're #1 draft picks.. IMO he's the best coach in pro sports....ever

 

[Smash]

why do i get the feeling Oak covers this week???
am i nutz?

 

[healer677]

What spread are you looking at for Oakland John?

It looks like Ben is playing -they are on the road in one of the toughest stadiums in the league. That being said -the Raiders are God awful though. Statistically (offense and defense) they're just bad. The Steelrs are in a must-must super must win. The Raiders players are playing for bonuses right now. The question is....money-line = Steelers, teaser for 6 or 7 = Steelers, point spread = less then two scores maybe Steelers but anything more than that.....there might be some value with Oakland. But that would be an unecessarily risky bet.

IMO better values can be had on a teaser, or even a money-line with the Chiefs, Jets and the G-men. To add to that even maybe the Eagles -who have blown 4 4th quarter leads so far this year.