US Economic Boom to go Bust?

[james t kirk]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: US Economy - I agree with OTB -Strange

You want to watch that spoiled comment if you're a Howard Brush Dean III supporter - he grew up a spoiled rich kid on Park Avenue and East Hampton the son of a wealthy stock broker with Dean Witter Reynolds.

Apparently 50% of the country made that decision in 2000 and W's numbers are up from there. You have to say that Bush has had difficult times - Clinton bubble bursting, 9/11.

I think you'd have to be an idiot to believe Bush has an IQ of 94 - there's a pretty good weeding process to get to be President, it's not like being a PM.

OTB

I know where Dean comes from. Big money. Old money better yet (the best kind of money they say)

Ironically, his father was a staunch republican.

Dean could have sat on his ass and spent his trust fund, but he didn't. He went to medical school, worked as a doctor, etc.

As far as Bush verses Martin on the IQ scale, if you are in Canada and exposed to Canadian politics as much as you claim, then you KNOW that Martin is twice the intellect of Bush.

The US would do well with a guy like Martin and you know that too. Fiscally conservative, brilliant even, yet socially liberal. No such animal exists in US politics comparable to Martin that I can think of.

 

[onthebottom]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: US Economy - I agree with OTB -Strange

I know where Dean comes from. Big money. Old money better yet (the best kind of money they say)

Ironically, his father was a staunch republican.

Dean could have sat on his ass and spent his trust fund, but he didn't. He went to medical school, worked as a doctor, etc.

As far as Bush verses Martin on the IQ scale, if you are in Canada and exposed to Canadian politics as much as you claim, then you KNOW that Martin is twice the intellect of Bush.

The US would do well with a guy like Martin and you know that too. Fiscally conservative, brilliant even, yet socially liberal. No such animal exists in US politics comparable to Martin that I can think of.

Oh, I wasn't talking about Martin, I'm very impressed with him, it's the guy before him that I thought was a complete waste of air. Martin strikes me as a Clinton without the sleazebag personality. Conservative fiscal policy with liberal social policy is right up my alley - if you can do it without molesting the staff so much the better.

The guys who make the money are often staunch republicans; it takes different skills to make a fortune than to spend one. He did go to Medical school and that is impressive - he obviously inherited some very good smarts - you will never read me saying that he's stupid. Now getting out of Vietnam by failing his medical (bad back) and then skiing the next 10 months.... well at least he's not stupid. Can't wait to see how those guys driving pickups with confederate flags and gun racks respond to him.

OTB

 

[Ickabod]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: You guys are kidding right?

doesn't sound like democracy to me

Waiting for DJK and OTB to pounce and call you a Liberal American hater.

Waiting.....

Waiting.....

 

[onthebottom]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: You guys are kidding right?

Waiting for DJK and OTB to pounce and call you a Liberal American hater.

Waiting.....

Waiting.....

it was a confusing post, I didn't know if he was worried that 800 people were paying 25% of the load or he didn't like my comment about those 800 people not getting representation for their money. Doesnt' really matter.

OTB

 

[onthebottom]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: US Economy - I agree with OTB -Strange

I don't think you have to worry about Martin molesting the staff - he was the main guy on changes to laws about sexual harrassment in the workplace.
I want to see Dean drive a truck with Georgia mud in it, confederate flag, and a shotgun rack - make a great photo opp for Larry King.

Yeah, with that pained forced smile he has.

OTB

 

[james t kirk]

I can't wait for the generation of US politicians who were too young to go to vietnam. Right now, you have clinton who opposed the war, then bush who hid from the war, and now i learn dean who avoided the war with a questionable bad back.

In the not too distant future, everyone running for the president's job will have been 9 years old at the time of vietnam and it will cease to be a US issue.

 

[onthebottom]

Yeah

the really impressive guys fought in WWII

OTB

 

[james t kirk]

the next generation of politicians will be gulf war veterans

Yeah, but there is no draft now in the US to get around. So no issue of avoidance.

 

[onthebottom]

The times have changed

true- my comment was more that it will seem almost ludicrous, but the debate about serving your country will be about who participated in these short fights versus the guys slugging it out for years in WWII, Korea and Vietnam

and in this way it's a good thing.

OTB

 

[onthebottom]

I don't care what anyone says - short, long, in between War is War and any vet. should be admired for putting their life on the line.

what he said!

OTB

 

[spacepontiac]

BUY GOLD!!
and if your interested, I will be selling on ebay soon!
SP

 

[indy123]

It is still too early to tell either way. Living south of the border, this is something that does concern me obviously.

I will say whoever coined the spin phrase, "jobless recovery" is smoking something really good.

The term "jobless recovery" is an oxymoron at best. You can't have your proverbial cake and eat it too.

No real economic recovery can happen if people are out of work. No work means no wages earned which means no income to buy goods and services.

Ultimately a doomed strategy.

 

[onthebottom]

You resurrected this thread

It is still too early to tell either way. Living south of the border, this is something that does concern me obviously.

I will say whoever coined the spin phrase, "jobless recovery" is smoking something really good.

The term "jobless recovery" is an oxymoron at best. You can't have your proverbial cake and eat it too.

No real economic recovery can happen if people are out of work. No work means no wages earned which means no income to buy goods and services.

Ultimately a doomed strategy.

For this, come on.

Just in case you missed Econ 101

The combination of manufacturing jobs moving overseas and the incredible productivity improvements in the US means that the economy can grow substantially without additional labor requirements. Ultimately it's a killer strategy.

OTB

 

[indy123]

Re: You resurrected this thread

For this, come on.

Just in case you missed Econ 101

The combination of manufacturing jobs moving overseas and the incredible productivity improvements in the US means that the economy can grow substantially without additional labor requirements. Ultimately it's a killer strategy.

OTB

I did take micro and macro economics in college.

I still say it is a loosing strategy.

Unless there is technological innovation to create new jobs to replace those lost to productivity gains and outsourcing you still have many people out of work.

Right now US companies are too afraid to commit to any sort of innovation. The recovery is basically the end result of corporate belt tightening.

Projects have been held off for so long there is no other choice but to get things done.

Productivity gains is another word for fewer people doing more work just to stay employed.

All the out of work people won't be able to buy whatever goods and services your company produces.

The United States has lost over two million jobs in the past three years alone. This number simply gets bigger every year.

Sooner or later the unemployed will eclipse the employed. Before then profits being made by XYZ company will be negatively impacted because like I said before there won't be enough people who can afford to buy the goods or services XYZ company produces.

 

[onthebottom]

Re: Re: You resurrected this thread

I did take micro and macro economics in college.

You should have considered paying attention. Sorry for that but you make some "remarkable" comments below.

I still say it is a loosing strategy..

Good point, I mean we're only talking about the largest (larger than the next 7 combined) economy in the world, with a lower unemployment rate than any other G8 country, faster growing (provided 60% of all world economic growth in the 90s) than all the other G8 countries. Oh, and I think we've already covered the most productive economy in the world.

Unless there is technological innovation to create new jobs to replace those lost to productivity gains and outsourcing you still have many people out of work.

Good point, there is no technology innovation in the US.....

Right now US companies are too afraid to commit to any sort of innovation. The recovery is basically the end result of corporate belt tightening.

Economies don't grow because of belt tightening (3.5% GDP growth in the last 12 months) but it does help company earnings - which are phenomenal at the moment.

Projects have been held off for so long there is no other choice but to get things done..

And this will cause the economy to grow, people to be employed....

Productivity gains is another word for fewer people doing more work just to stay employed.

No, productivity is another word for saying making more stuff in the same amount of time.

All the out of work people won't be able to buy whatever goods and services your company produces..

Actually, companies buy the stuff we sell, and they are making record earnings at the moment.

The United States has lost over two million jobs in the past three years alone. This number simply gets bigger every year...

I think it's 3 million actually. There are a few things going on here. Slower economies employ fewer people (the Clinton bubble burst ). Lower skilled manufacturing jobs are moving over seas (but 70% of the US economy is a service economy).

Sooner or later the unemployed will eclipse the employed. Before then profits being made by XYZ company will be negatively impacted because like I said before there won't be enough people who can afford to buy the goods or services XYZ company produces.

The US unemployment rate was lowered to 5.9 % last month ( quite a bit lower than the rate in Canada, France, Germany, Australia........) - I think we're a ways from this scenario but thanks for the out of proportion sky falling view.

OTB

 

[james t kirk]

Re: Re: Re: You resurrected this thread

The US unemployment rate was lowered to 5.9 % last month ( quite a bit lower than the rate in Canada, France, Germany, Australia........) - I think we're a ways from this scenario but thanks for the out of proportion sky falling view.

OTB

Yeah, but the US economy added a grand total of 1,000 jobs and the Canadian economy added 53,000

Also, 300,000 Americans dropped out of the work force, i.e. ceased looking for work, which resulted in a lower unemployment number (quite misleading)

Here's a crop from the link below.....

Missed Forecast

The median economist forecast missed the total by the widest gap since February, when a predicted job gain turned out to be a loss of 308,000. Forecasts for today's report ranged from increases of 75,000 to 250,000. Economists had projected the unemployment rate would hold at 5.9 percent.

The economy has shed 1.07 million jobs since the economic expansion began in November 2001, making job losses a key issue in this year's Democratic Party campaign to replace President George W. Bush in the White House in November.

More than 250,000 jobs would have to be added each month through September to make up for the 2.3 million jobs lost since Bush took office four years ago. The October employment report is issued after Nov. 2, when Americans vote.

``This economy is strong and it is getting stronger,'' Bush told a group of women who own small businesses, pointing to the drop in the unemployment rate. ``We want more people still working. But nevertheless it is a positive sign that the economy is getting better.''

Democratic Response

Bush's rivals for the presidency said the results show the president's economic programs aren't working. The addition of 1,000 jobs in a recovery ``is nothing short of pitiful,'' Representative Richard Gephardt said while campaigning at a retirement home in Concord, New Hampshire.

For the Bush administration, ``this is probably their weakest link on domestic policy'' before the State of the union address and the election, said Greg Valliere, senior analyst for Schwab Washington Research, in a television interview with Bloomberg.



http://www.home-mortgage-loan-refinancing.com/Mortgage01_10_04/Mortgage9E_Refinancing.htm

versus this....

http://www.statcan.ca/english/Subjects/Labour/LFS/lfs-en.htm


That's why in the US, they are starting to call it the "jobless recovery"

 

[onthebottom]

Re: Re: Re: Re: You resurrected this thread

Yeah, but the US economy added a grand total of 1,000 jobs and the Canadian economy added 53,000 .......

That's why in the US, they are starting to call it the "jobless recovery"

Yeah, and what is Canada's unemployment rate? Try 7.5% sounds like you have a jobless expansion.

OTB

 

[james t kirk]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: You resurrected this thread

Yeah, and what is Canada's unemployment rate? Try 7.5% sounds like you have a jobless expansion.

OTB

7.4%.

The us number is completely misleading since it only includes those drawing unemployment benefits. The actual number of unemployed people is far far higher.

 

[indy123]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: You resurrected this thread

I've told OTB this several times before but he won't listen to me, but maybe he will listen to you.

I wouldn't count on it.

OTB sounds like the average conservative sychophant who is so concerned about looking out for his side, he won't see the obvious.

A jobless recovery is NOT a recovery.

Just like comparing the US and CAD unemployment rate is apples to oranges.

 

[Ickabod]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: You resurrected this thread

I wouldn't count on it.

OTB sounds like the average conservative sychophant who is so concerned about looking out for his side, he won't see the obvious.

I have a feeling that if OJ Simpson were President and cut OTB's taxes for him, OTB would be arguing about how impossible it would be for a broken down man, with arthritic knees and hands to slash 2 people 50 times, race back to his house, not be seen by anyone, leave but one tiny spec of blood in his truck, dispose of his clothes and weapon, shower, act all nonchalant on a plane flight, shake hands with someone who didn't notice a big huge cut that was supposedly on his finger, on a day when he was all smiles 3 hours earlier with the family of the girl he supposedly killed. And do so using a glove that didn't fit.