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Unemployment rate falls to 4.7 pct

onthebottom

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More good news.......

OTB

Unemployment rate falls to 4.7 pct
US employers add 128,000 jobs in August, unemployment rate falls to 4.7 pct
09.01.2006, 09:47 AM


WASHINGTON (AFX) - US employers added 128,000 jobs last month while the unemployment rate fell a notch to 4.7 pct, the Labor Department said.

In July, the number of jobs added was revised to 121,000 from 113,000.

Both the number of jobs added in August and the unemployment rate were in line with expectations.

Average hourly wages rose 0.1 pct in August, slower than the 0.3 pct economists had expected.

Still, average hourly earnings have risen 3.9 pct in the past year. That's the same annual rate as July's revised figure. The last time average hourly earnings have risen faster over 12 months was in the year prior to June 2001, when they rose 4 pct.
http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/...fx2988010.html

What, hourly earnings up 3.9% and unemployment dropping....

OTB
 

james t kirk

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Unemployment rates is a misleading indicator.

All unemployment refers to is the percentage of the population that is considered to be actively searching for work, i.e. those receiving unemployment benefits.

Once one drops out of the labour force, or ceases collecting UI benefits, you are no longer part of the equation.

Doesn't mean you are any less unemployed.

A better indicator of the strength of the economy is the EMPOYMENT number, or the percent employed. It reflects the percentage of the population that are actually able to find and keep a job.

Canadian Employment currently stands at 63%, American employment stands at 63.1%

http://www.statcan.ca/english/Subjects/Labour/LFS/lfs-en.htm

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
 

onthebottom

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james t kirk said:
Unemployment rates is a misleading indicator.

All unemployment refers to is the percentage of the population that is considered to be actively searching for work, i.e. those receiving unemployment benefits.

Once one drops out of the labour force, or ceases collecting UI benefits, you are no longer part of the equation.

Doesn't mean you are any less unemployed.

A better indicator of the strength of the economy is the EMPOYMENT number, or the percent employed. It reflects the percentage of the population that are actually able to find and keep a job.

Canadian Employment currently stands at 63%, American employment stands at 63.1%

http://www.statcan.ca/english/Subjects/Labour/LFS/lfs-en.htm

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

While you're correct on the definition of the measure I don't think it's quite as misleading as you think. It is a good measure over time. Frankly, not everyone wants/needs to work in an economy, many decide to stay home and care for children..... the number of people who want to work that can find it is a very important measure.

Interesting that there is such a dramatic difference in unemployment rates and per capita GDP between Canada and the US with the same % of people working.

OTB
 

WoodPeckr

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Unemployment vs. Poverty Rates in the USA

onthebottom said:
While you're correct on the definition of the measure I don't think it's quite as misleading as you think. It is a good measure over time........

OTB
Unemployment rates are indeed a misleading indicator in the USA.
A better indicator, 'over time', is the US Poverty rates which continue to get worse.
The Povery index is a bit harder to 'fudge the numbers' on when compared with unemployment rates.
Here's a good analysis of where 'bushienomics' is taking the USA......where only the 'well-to-do' prosper.


The poor still getting poorer

9/5/2006

By E.J. DIONNE After a week of revisiting the horrors of Hurricane Katrina, the most depressing realization is how easily our leaders forgot their fervent promises to lift up our nation's poorest citizens.

All manner of politicians and columnists said in Katrina's wake that this was the time to revisit the problems of the destitute. The anguish of the people of New Orleans' Lower Ninth Ward would have at least some redemptive power if the country took poverty seriously again.

It didn't happen. The innovative ideas that came from all sides were swept off the table. The poor became unfashionable, once more. Congressional conservatives changed the conversation. A concern for the struggling gave way to debate over how to offset spending on Katrina with budget cuts - directed in large part at programs for the needy.

Perhaps the release of the Census Bureau's annual report on income, poverty and health insurance coverage the same week as Katrina's first anniversary was a sign that God and the statisticians have a sense of humor. The report reinforces what we knew at the time of Katrina - that the poor are still with us, and that the middle class keeps losing ground.

The "good" news is that the poverty rate, the proportion of Americans who are poor, didn't change much between 2004 and 2005, falling in a statistically insignificant way from 12.7 percent to 12.6 percent. The bad news is that the poverty rate is still higher than it was in 2001, when it stood at 11.7 percent.

Worse is that the proportion of the poor who are very poor has risen. People are considered in deep poverty if they have half or less of the yearly income of those at the poverty line. In 2005, half the poverty line for a family of three was $7,788; for a family of four, it was $9,985. (Try living on that.) According to the new report, 43.1 percent of poor people deal with that sort of deep poverty - a record since 1975, when the government started keeping such statistics.

The number of Americans without health insurance rose, too, to 46.6 million in 2005, up from 45.3 million in 2004 and 41.2 million in 2001. The proportion without insurance is up from 14.6 percent in 2001 to 15.9 percent in 2005.

What about the middle class? Yes, the median income of American households rose by 1.1 percent last year after five years of decline. But most of the growth was in households headed by Americans 65 and over - who are helped, rightly, by substantial government benefits. Households headed by people under 65 saw their incomes fall yet again.

Want to know why so many men out there are mad? Adjusted for inflation, male earnings were lower in 2005 than they were back in 1973.

Women have been slowly closing the gender gap in income. Among full-time, year-round workers, women earn 77 percent of what men do now, compared with 57 percent in 1973. But in the most recent year, the gap closed because women lost income at a slightly slower rate than men. That's not how most women imagine achieving equality.

But the census had some very good news for the well-to-do. The top fifth of American households received 50.4 percent of all income last year, the highest proportion since the Census Bureau started following that trend in 1967. The biggest gains were concentrated in the top 5 percent.

"The economy is growing, and someone is getting the growth," said Sharon Parrott, a senior analyst at the liberal Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. "So now we know who it is."

President Bush and the Republican Congress, take a bow: You took power to make the well-off even better off, and you have succeeded brilliantly.

As for the poor and the middle class, maybe they'll do better after the next hurricane, or the one after that.
 

fantasiafan

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ya, so now people have jobs - working 5 hour a week flex jobs that are misused in unemplyment rates and are to be 'corrected' next time around but never get around to correcting.....
 

onthebottom

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WoodPeckr said:
Unemployment rates are indeed a misleading indicator in the USA.
A better indicator, 'over time', is the US Poverty rates which continue to get worse.
The Povery index is a bit harder to 'fudge the numbers' on when compared with unemployment rates.
Here's a good analysis of where 'bushienomics' is taking the USA......where only the 'well-to-do' prosper.


....
Here are the poverty numbers since Clinton took office:

1992 - 14.8
1993 - 15.1
1994 - 14.5
1995 - 13.8
1996 - 13.7
1997 - 13.3
1998 - 12.7

1999 - 11.9
2000 - 11.3
2001 - 11.7
2002 - 12.1
2003 - 12.5
2004 - 12.7
2005 - 12.6

Unemployment is still 4.7%

OTB
 

21pro

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WoodPeckr said:
A better indicator, 'over time', is the US Poverty rates which continue to get worse.
thought the rates don't get worse... since 2000, the cost of living has increased significantly... not the true CPI, but the actual real cost of living has increased. This makes the people slightly above the US Pov rate to live in poorer conditions than those under the Pov rate 5 years ago. In that way, life gets worse for people at, under or near the us Poverty rate.

PS- the Real Estate Market is absolutely dead now, which is a needed correction.
 

someone

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Actually, much of the difference between the Canadian and American unemployment rates has little to do with economic performance and much more to do with it being far less unpleasant to be unemployed in Canada. For example, seasonal workers in Atlantic Canada can work a few weeks a year and collect EI for the rest. In the United States, they would face a lot more incentives to relocated to where the jobs are. Likewise, in the United States they have a greater incentive to accept unpleasant and low paying jobs.

21pro said:
thought the rates don't get worse... since 2000, the cost of living has increased significantly... not the true CPI, but the actual real cost of living has increased.
What index are your referring to? I have never come across an “actual real cost of living” index.
 

new2game

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Still too many Mc Jobs

...being created...you know, the minimum wage, shit conditions, go nowhere type??...just take a look at how many high paying union jobs that have vanished over the last 5 yrs. And this fuckin paperless society we were supposed to create with computerization??...damn I must kill a tree every few days on my job with the amount of reporting on paper that's required. Also, more people are putting more hours into their jobs than ever before. So much for the shorter work week creating more jobs. My only saving grace is that I am near the finish line of my work career, and have set myself up pretty well financially, with no debt. Pity the poor bastards that are just getting into this screwed up workforce, and have 30-40 yrs to go...

N2G
 

21pro

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someone said:
What index are your referring to? I have never come across an “actual real cost of living” index.
Where did I mention INDEX? I said not an INDEX.

It is really simple. If you look at the CPI and add in the factors that the CPI does not include in its calculation, but yet still alter how much it costs for you and I to live, you come up with a more realistic idea of what the 'real' inflation is. Some really important figures the core CPI doesn't consider is - real estate prices, used car pricing, food and energy. Do you not think these things alter cost of living?

If you alter your personal finances to acknowledge these factors and plan around them, you can actually make quite an impressive gain in your overall networth in a short period of time. An example would be that If you pay $1800 rent /mth to live in a house that has a market value of $650,000. You could not possibly find a similar house to buy with that low of mortgage payment. Why are the figures so messed up? Because that $1800/mth rent has been the same $1800 for the last 7 years. The house was only worth $290,000 7 years ago! If you were to buy the house @ 25% down- my mortgage payments would be a stupid 2x's what you pay right now... You'll take the extra almost $2000 each month and add it to the other $5000 I (I am currently carrying out this plan) save each month from other rerouting around inflation and invest it in stocks. I save about $7000 each month while living under the same general living conditions by simply being aware of what the 'true' inflation is. It's been 1 year I have been living under these conditions and by year 5 I will have amassed well over the amount the house I live in would cost to by (assuming a conservative 8%). On the other hand, if i bought the house last year, at the end of year 5, I'd still owe $460,000 and instead, I will be able to buy it with 100% cash.
 

onthebottom

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new2game said:
...being created...you know, the minimum wage, shit conditions, go nowhere type??...just take a look at how many high paying union jobs that have vanished over the last 5 yrs. And this fuckin paperless society we were supposed to create with computerization??...damn I must kill a tree every few days on my job with the amount of reporting on paper that's required. Also, more people are putting more hours into their jobs than ever before. So much for the shorter work week creating more jobs. My only saving grace is that I am near the finish line of my work career, and have set myself up pretty well financially, with no debt. Pity the poor bastards that are just getting into this screwed up workforce, and have 30-40 yrs to go...

N2G
I would disagree:

"Wages registered a second sizable increase, rising at an annual rate of 4.9 percent in the second quarter, up from an initial estimate of a 4.2 percent increase" from the AP

While it is true there are fewer Union jobs the economy is growing both robustly and at a sustainable level.

OTB
 

someone

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21pro said:
Where did I mention INDEX? I said not an INDEX.

It is really simple. If you look at the CPI and add in the factors that the CPI does not include in its calculation, but yet still alter how much it costs for you and I to live, you come up with a more realistic idea of what the 'real' inflation is. Some really important figures the core CPI doesn't consider is - real estate prices, used car pricing, food and energy. Do you not think these things alter cost of living?
The core CPI does not include food and energy but the “regular” CPI does. Your original post did not specify that you were referring to the “core CPI” but I guess that is what you meant by “real CPI”. The “regular” CPI includes goods and services consumed by the average urban family of four, weighted by the quantities such a family would consume them in. Many are not average or families of 4. As a single person, I don’t consume many of the good and question and others in different proportions. However, that does not invalidate it, as no index will reflect everyone’s consumption (BTW, there are many other indexes you could cite instead, the most common one being the GDP deflator). The core CPI simply removes components that have high month-to-month variances. Central banks tend to use the core CPI as they feel it is a better indicator of long run tends in prices.

21pro said:
If you alter your personal finances to acknowledge these factors and plan around them, you can actually make quite an impressive gain in your overall networth in a short period of time. An example would be that If you pay $1800 rent /mth to live in a house that has a market value of $650,000. You could not possibly find a similar house to buy with that low of mortgage payment. Why are the figures so messed up? Because that $1800/mth rent has been the same $1800 for the last 7 years. The house was only worth $290,000 7 years ago! If you were to buy the house @ 25% down- my mortgage payments would be a stupid 2x's what you pay right now... You'll take the extra almost $2000 each month and add it to the other $5000 I (I am currently carrying out this plan) save each month from other rerouting around inflation and invest it in stocks. I save about $7000 each month while living under the same general living conditions by simply being aware of what the 'true' inflation is. It's been 1 year I have been living under these conditions and by year 5 I will have amassed well over the amount the house I live in would cost to by (assuming a conservative 8%). On the other hand, if i bought the house last year, at the end of year 5, I'd still owe $460,000 and instead, I will be able to buy it with 100% cash.
Although the CPI may not perfectly reflect the consumption of those below the poverty line, I don’t think that many of them are paying in $1800 rent either, so I don't see how relevant your example is
 

onthebottom

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DonQuixote said:
Your macro-economic numbers mean very little
to the average working class American. The
unemployment rate in Ohio is 5.8%. We've lost
over 3 million industrial jobs in the last 3 years.

Which is a greater threat to the US:
1. Al Qaeda and their progeny
2. The rise of China and India

I say China and India. They're increasing the
demand for precious metals - check on the cost
of nickle - and oil, as well as the loss of manufacturing
jobs.

You're macro numbers don't tell much about the
average American's situation. Real earning power
for the middle and lower income types has gone
down over the last 3 years - health care costs
and energy. Recall last winter's heating bill.

"Al Qaeda and their progeny" are a risk, China and India are an opportunity.

I'm sure I can find States with unemployment lower than 4.7% as well, your point is that Ohio is a rust belt economy, I'll give you that - at least the North. It's perfectly valid to look at macro economic indicators for how the economy as a whole is doing.

Go Twins, Indians Suck.:D

Detroit .612
Minnesota .584
Chicago .572
Cleveland .482
Kansas City .371

http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/mlb/standings/index.jsp

OTB
 

onthebottom

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zanner69 said:
more like go Tigers!!!;)

as for City of Detroit and unemployment - unfortunately we have abandoned it - everyone left for the burbs - Ann Arbor, Gross Pointe, Auburn Hills, Sterling Heights etc.
The Twins are playing well but may run out of season to catch the Tigers - but they've moved past Chicago for the Wild Card!

OTB
 

someone

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DonQuixote said:
I strongly disagree. The cost of a college education in the US
continues to climb faster than the cost of living index. As you
may be aware, tuition at a 4 year state college, Ohio State
as an example, is close to $20,000/yr when you add in tuition,
books, fees, and room and board.

College education in China and India is virtually free.
We have a shortage that's becoming a crisis in science
and math grads in the US. They're beating us at the
education game.

Opportunity - for whom The upper middle class who can
send their children to universities. The lower economic
class is turning away from higher education because they
can't afford the costs involved.
Yes there are a lot of problems with education in the United States but they exist independently of China and India. If China and India develop better education systems it just means that their economies will become more productive and the U.S. has wealthier trading partners.


DonQuixote said:
We're losing the economics war to Asia. We have been
for a while but as long as you get a good buy at Walmart
and other big box stores you don't really care. But, your
grandchildren will.
What economics war? The U.S. is not hurt if other countries grow faster then it does. That just creates richer countries to trade with. Trade is not a zero sum game. You might want to pick up one of Paul Krugmans books sometime. He does a good job of explaining why what he calls “pop internationalism” (e.g. the idea of there being winners and losers when countries trade) in a very nontechnical easy to follow why. Don’t get me wrong, the U.S. is going to have a lot of economics problems to worry about. However, they involve internal problems of their own making (e.g. the budget deficit, the poor education system) and are independent of China and India. A better education system will help the U.S. regardless of China and India as a worse one will make it worse off.
 

21pro

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someone said:
The core CPI simply removes components that have high month-to-month variances. Central banks tend to use the core CPI as they feel it is a better indicator of long run tends in prices.
My CFP would argue the Central Banks use the core CPI not for that reason, but because it provides the argument du jour... a reason to keep interest rates low. In past Central Banks have employed the other indexes.
 

onthebottom

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DonQuixote said:
I strongly disagree. The cost of a college education in the US
continues to climb faster than the cost of living index. As you
may be aware, tuition at a 4 year state college, Ohio State
as an example, is close to $20,000/yr when you add in tuition,
books, fees, and room and board.
Ohio State is $8,600 a year for in-state tuition. I'm sorry, but I think almost anyone can get a world class education that wants one. http://undergrad.osu.edu/admissions/costs.asp

DonQuixote said:
College education in China and India is virtually free.
We have a shortage that's becoming a crisis in science
and math grads in the US. They're beating us at the
education game.
While both countries have smart students we have a tremendous advantage - something like 90 of the top 100 universities are in the US and 50% of or PhD students come from somewhere else. We import the best and the brightest at the best schools in the world - that is our competitive advantage.

DonQuixote said:
Opportunity - for whom The upper middle class who can
send their children to universities. The lower economic
class is turning away from higher education because they
can't afford the costs involved.
If that's true (and you've given me no reason to think it is) then they will stay the "lower economic class".

DonQuixote said:
We're losing the economics war to Asia. We have been
for a while but as long as you get a good buy at Walmart
and other big box stores you don't really care. But, your
grandchildren will.
By what measure? As other economies grow our market grows.

Per capita GDP of India is 3,300, a hundred dollars less than Iraq

Per capita GDP of China is 6,800

The US per capita GDP is 41,800 for reference.

I'd say we're winning this "war" in your head fairly easily.

OTB
 

21pro

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someone said:
Although the CPI may not perfectly reflect the consumption of those below the poverty line, I don’t think that many of them are paying in $1800 rent either, so I don't see how relevant your example is
No, but I guess I could use the rents are charge in a small apartment building I own. CPI uses rents as figures to factor in real estate instead of the broad or whole residential real estate market in general. This greatly diminishes the truth about cost of living. That was my point.
 
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