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Ukraine updates

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Anbarandy

Bitter House****
Apr 27, 2006
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Something seems off in this thread. This may be just a wild stab on the dark, but could it be that this thread hasn't been .....

spam.PNG


........ repetitively, cluster-spammed with the world's most trustworthy and balanced Russian propaganda media mouthpiece, HT, lately?
 

chickenriceandbeans

Well-known member
Jul 28, 2022
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Something seems off in this thread. This may be just a wild stab on the dark, but could it be that this thread hasn't been .....

View attachment 228457


........ repetitively, cluster-spammed with the world's most trustworthy and balanced Russian propaganda media mouthpiece, HT, lately?
Hey the poodle guy is back to confuse everybody. Why do we need spam when we have you, poodle guy? :ROFLMAO:
 

jcpro

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Jan 31, 2014
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Ukraine can be said to be winning this war if and when they recover any meaningful amount of the Ukrainian territory now controlled by Russia. Not before. I have seen no information to indicate that is happening, or is about to happen.
That's exactly right.
 
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basketcase

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Dec 29, 2005
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Ukraine can be said to be winning this war if and when they recover any meaningful amount of the Ukrainian territory now controlled by Russia. Not before. I have seen no information to indicate that is happening, or is about to happen.
Like they did last year in Kherson and Kharkiv?

IMO, Ukraine wins simply by denying Putin victory.
 

Valcazar

Just a bundle of fucking sunshine
Mar 27, 2014
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Ukraine can be said to be winning this war if and when they recover any meaningful amount of the Ukrainian territory now controlled by Russia. Not before. I have seen no information to indicate that is happening, or is about to happen.
I'd go further.
Traditionally, losing or gaining land is the major metric where you decide if someone "won".
So if Russia ends up with ANYTHING outside of the 2014 border it gets to claim it won.
 
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chickenriceandbeans

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Jul 28, 2022
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I'd go further.
Traditionally, losing or gaining land is the major metric where you decide if someone "won".
So if Russia ends up with ANYTHING outside of the 2014 border it gets to claim it won.
Only if we lived in the 15th century. Today it is more about achieving your political objectives than land. The best way to consider Russia defeated is for Ukraine to be admitted to NATO even if they lose land.
 

Valcazar

Just a bundle of fucking sunshine
Mar 27, 2014
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Only if we lived in the 15th century. Today it is more about achieving your political objectives than land. The best way to consider Russia defeated is for Ukraine to be admitted to NATO even if they lose land.
If you want to use "achieved their political objectives" then they lost almost immediately.

If you believe "it was all about NATO expansion" then this had more countries joined and re-unified NATO in a way it hasn't been for years.
If you believe it was shoring up Putin's domestic position, then it doesn't look like a success.
If you believe it was restoring Russia as a Great Power that must be invited to the table, it exposed their weakness and reduced their prestige.
If you believe it was about seizing the Ukrainian government or reasserting sufficient power to effectively control its foreign policy, then that is still possible but looks unlikely.
 

chickenriceandbeans

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If you want to use "achieved their political objectives" then they lost almost immediately
No they have not. It is why I said that for them to lose politically Ukraine has to be admitted to NATO, or Russia will have to be militarily defeated, which does not look likely.

What you are talking about is political legitimacy and that does not matter, because that negative opinion about Russia is only held amongst one half of the population in North America and Europe.
 

Valcazar

Just a bundle of fucking sunshine
Mar 27, 2014
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No they have not. It is why I said that for them to lose politically Ukraine has to be admitted to NATO, or Russia will have to be militarily defeated, which does not look likely.

What you are talking about is political legitimacy and that does not matter, because that negative opinion about Russia is only held amongst one half of the population in North America and Europe.
Ukraine was already not in NATO and no one thought they would be likely admitted to NATO in the near future.
The attack made that admission more likely.
So even if you limit the political objective to "Keep Ukraine out of NATO" this looks like a loser. (More of a loser if you take it as "curb NATO expansion" since it led directly to Sweden and Finland joining.)

The political legitimacy question does matter and it matters to Russia a lot.
It isn't about "Do people like us" it is about "Do they have to treat us like a major power".

Russia getting in this mess has reduced its standing internationally. Countries that would have been afraid to piss it off are willing to do so now. Countries that thought it's military could crush them in days no longer believe that. Perception matters, and managing that perception is important to the Putin regime. (It is important to most regimes.)

"We told you we wouldn't accept this, we walked in and took over Ukraine in 3 days because you didn't listen" sends a message to the world.
Trying that and failing sends a different one.
 

Insidious Von

My head is my home
Sep 12, 2007
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Russia is very good at killing civilians, less so at taking on armed resistance. With Russia's population in free fall how long can it sustain casualties.

As for being a man, Marta Kostyuk doesn't like spaghetti Putinesca. Interesting she shook hands with the Moscow born Elena Rybakina, who represents Kazakhstan.

 

mandrill

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Aug 23, 2001
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krealtarron

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Nov 12, 2021
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