Ed Herman -120:
Smith has strong Muay Thai and heavy hands, but Herman has a rather significant edge in the ground game, both in wrestling and submissions. If Herman comes in with a smart game plan, to take the fight to the ground, and successfully executes that plan, I think he wins this fight handily.
Jason Tan +325:
Davis is heavily favored here, close to an 80% favorite to win. While Davis looked impressive in his last outing with Spratt in April, he also could not finish an over matched Carter in their fight in December 2006. I don’t think Davis is a good play as almost a 4-to-1 favorite; Tan is well-rounded, dangerous and well-conditioned. I think Tan is worth a small play as a heavy underdog.
Eddie Sanchez -200
I think this line is closer than it should be. I’ve seen tape on Robinson, and while he has heavy hands, he’s going to be facing a much more athletic Sanchez who is going to look to aggressively rebound from the loss to Cro Cop. While Sanchez did not perform well in that fight, it was pretty clearly due to significant intimidation from facing one of the world’s top heavyweight fighters.
Yushin Okami +160
In a fight I expect to be very close and with both fighters constantly in danger, it should be pretty easy to guess which side I’d recommend betting. Franklin at -180 is being given a 65% chance of winning, and while I do feel he should be the favorite here, I would set the line just a tad bit closer. As such, I recommend a smallish play here on Okami for pure value. This should be a close fight and I wouldn’t recommend loading up on either side, but I do feel there is small value in the underdog play. Okami by unanimous decision, 29-28 on all three cards. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a dominant Rich Franklin performance and an early end to Okami’s evening. This fight very literally could go either way.
Tyson Griffin -200:
This should be an excellent fight. However, I feel it’s one of the best betting spots on the card. At -200, Griffin is set at a 66.6% chance of winning the fight, and I feel he is closer to a 3-to-1 favorite over Guida. Look for Griffin to slap on a submission during one of the approximately one hundred transitions we are sure to see during what should be a very exciting fight. Griffin by submission in the second round.
Smith has strong Muay Thai and heavy hands, but Herman has a rather significant edge in the ground game, both in wrestling and submissions. If Herman comes in with a smart game plan, to take the fight to the ground, and successfully executes that plan, I think he wins this fight handily.
Jason Tan +325:
Davis is heavily favored here, close to an 80% favorite to win. While Davis looked impressive in his last outing with Spratt in April, he also could not finish an over matched Carter in their fight in December 2006. I don’t think Davis is a good play as almost a 4-to-1 favorite; Tan is well-rounded, dangerous and well-conditioned. I think Tan is worth a small play as a heavy underdog.
Eddie Sanchez -200
I think this line is closer than it should be. I’ve seen tape on Robinson, and while he has heavy hands, he’s going to be facing a much more athletic Sanchez who is going to look to aggressively rebound from the loss to Cro Cop. While Sanchez did not perform well in that fight, it was pretty clearly due to significant intimidation from facing one of the world’s top heavyweight fighters.
Yushin Okami +160
In a fight I expect to be very close and with both fighters constantly in danger, it should be pretty easy to guess which side I’d recommend betting. Franklin at -180 is being given a 65% chance of winning, and while I do feel he should be the favorite here, I would set the line just a tad bit closer. As such, I recommend a smallish play here on Okami for pure value. This should be a close fight and I wouldn’t recommend loading up on either side, but I do feel there is small value in the underdog play. Okami by unanimous decision, 29-28 on all three cards. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a dominant Rich Franklin performance and an early end to Okami’s evening. This fight very literally could go either way.
Tyson Griffin -200:
This should be an excellent fight. However, I feel it’s one of the best betting spots on the card. At -200, Griffin is set at a 66.6% chance of winning the fight, and I feel he is closer to a 3-to-1 favorite over Guida. Look for Griffin to slap on a submission during one of the approximately one hundred transitions we are sure to see during what should be a very exciting fight. Griffin by submission in the second round.
