TSX 3rd Bottom
- Thread starter Rockslinger
- Start date
Good point to remember, I usually trade in and out of these within days as they tend to be quite volatile.nottyboi said:
BallzDeep said:
And the headaches are many.
1) Phone call at 3AM in the morning because a pipe broke.
2) Your tenant has turned the house into a grow-op.
3) You can't choose your tenants because "discrimination".
4) Somebody dumps used truck tires on your property.
Ivan said:
Garth Turner said that house prices are artificially prop up with artificially low mortgage rates. Rate will rise, prices will drop.
REIT's are leveraged, and if they get too leveraged and their income drops (lack of tenants due to bankruptcies, for example) that'll drive the price down.
As to other Real Estate, there are probably some commercial deals out there, and are easier to manage than residential. Plus you put 25%-40% down, but the return is on 100% of the property as it rises. Rental income covers the mortgage and costs, just don't over-extend, and be careful what property you buy.
Residential is a dog's breakfast, can be a lot of work, but has made lots of people wealthy, people who never made more than a half-decent wage. How? Someone else is paying the mortgages.
Never rent. You're just paying someone else's mortgage!
As to other Real Estate, there are probably some commercial deals out there, and are easier to manage than residential. Plus you put 25%-40% down, but the return is on 100% of the property as it rises. Rental income covers the mortgage and costs, just don't over-extend, and be careful what property you buy.
Residential is a dog's breakfast, can be a lot of work, but has made lots of people wealthy, people who never made more than a half-decent wage. How? Someone else is paying the mortgages.
Never rent. You're just paying someone else's mortgage!
Interesting, there are some that would say the same thing about real estate. Lots of different opinions and money to back those opinions, that's what makes a market.Sukdeep said:
Commercial real estate (especially shopping malls and office space) will be taking it in the balls within 6-8 months so stay away from these sort of REITs IMHO. If you want reits, target retirement properties. Frankly, I think may buy some natural gas, just because it can only really go about 40-50 cents lower before people stop producing.
I'm not in the financial industry at all, but for me it's fairly simple:
Job losses = less consumerism and more saving = less profits for shareholders and more government spending for social services, welfare, EI. etc. = higher taxes = less consumerism and more saving = less profits for shareholders = losses in stock market.
Also:
Less spending = no money to purchase a home/start a new business = more renters, less owners = lower profits from housing markets and lending institutions from lending interest rates = stock price decline in financial sector and housing markets.
We still haven't addressed the credit issues, high credit card debt, and until the job loss rates start to dramatically decrease and people are able to find jobs, then consumer spending will not support the market to justify the current prices of many stocks. I think we will see continued declines in stocks until these issues get resolved. Terrible for those who are invested now, fantastic for those who plan to invest in the next 3-5 years (approximately the average recovery time seen in the markets).
Just my analysis of the situation. I might be completely off on this, but I really don't think this is the time to get into the market.
Job losses = less consumerism and more saving = less profits for shareholders and more government spending for social services, welfare, EI. etc. = higher taxes = less consumerism and more saving = less profits for shareholders = losses in stock market.
Also:
Less spending = no money to purchase a home/start a new business = more renters, less owners = lower profits from housing markets and lending institutions from lending interest rates = stock price decline in financial sector and housing markets.
We still haven't addressed the credit issues, high credit card debt, and until the job loss rates start to dramatically decrease and people are able to find jobs, then consumer spending will not support the market to justify the current prices of many stocks. I think we will see continued declines in stocks until these issues get resolved. Terrible for those who are invested now, fantastic for those who plan to invest in the next 3-5 years (approximately the average recovery time seen in the markets).
Just my analysis of the situation. I might be completely off on this, but I really don't think this is the time to get into the market.
Ivan said:
Those are american reits, who the fuck is gonna buy them, the canadian ones are down around 30% or less, better than the market, they pay a nice monthly dividend, that if reinvested to buy more shares will be worth alot in 25 years.
Compare that to owning a building, replacing furnaces, roofs, carpets, bathtubs, kitchen cupboards.
nottyboi said:
I think the MERs are fixed...whatever they do you pay for through that. Where you lose money in the double products is just through the math...a 10% move one direction is not the same as the opposite (10%)...and when the underlying asset/index goes sideways you lose. So the product or index can be at exactly the same price at two different times - say a month apart - and your EFT may be at a signficicantly different price - more often lower than higher. This happens no matter how the fund company manages their exposure - derivatives or not.
Ivan said:
Ivan, you proved my point. You earn a 4% return before anything happens to the value of the property, which should cover your interest, mortgage, etc. (it's probably more like 5-5.5%, but let's just say it is what it is). You hold the property for 20 years. Do you not think it will rise in that time? I'm not talking short-term investing here. I'm talking about buying when the market is down and holding longer-term. If the market goes nuts in 5 years, sell and invest elsewhere. Otherwise hold and let someone else pay your mortgage.
And your initial investment is not the $300K, it's the $75K down-payment. $24,000 per year on a $75K investment seems to be about a 30% return, gross. Back out $10K for mortgage and $10K for taxes, fees, etc. and that still leaves you with $4K per year, or a return of 5.3%, AND you still get to ride the market wave over 20 years, AND you have paid off the remainder of the mortgage in that time ($10K covers P&I).
But, it's a bitch dealing with tenants...
stang said:Maybe another good opportunity.
I'm looking at buying again in a couple days.
All bulls....this is not the right time. IMO, there has not been any fundamental reason for the recent rise in the stock market and it has only been fueled by irrational optimism. That can quickly turn. Present sentiment is terribly fragile and easily shattered. We might see a repeat of Nov 08 and March 09 in the next few months.
If you're talking about buying hxd (2x bear etf) though or the TSX in late December....now I'm listening...
TSX has gone to dogs these day's!
Forth-night back the index at TSX was nearly !0,650 Points, and i was hopeing
that by July,09 we would be touching atleast 11,000 Points index, but since past two weeks we have lost over 1000 Index points which is a bad blow to invstors confidence. Even a third world country like India, the Bombay Stock Exchange is over14,500 Points index, which is really shameful for a developed country like Canada, where most investors are immigrants but are suffering financially due to wrong policies our our giant neighbour who has messed up their financial institutions due to which Canada has to suffer.
Hope things improve by Dec, 09 or else TSX would go to doom, once its own people loose confidence in their own country's weak financial stock position.
Lets hope for the best! Goodluck to all investors, just cross your fingers and stay put
Forth-night back the index at TSX was nearly !0,650 Points, and i was hopeing
that by July,09 we would be touching atleast 11,000 Points index, but since past two weeks we have lost over 1000 Index points which is a bad blow to invstors confidence. Even a third world country like India, the Bombay Stock Exchange is over14,500 Points index, which is really shameful for a developed country like Canada, where most investors are immigrants but are suffering financially due to wrong policies our our giant neighbour who has messed up their financial institutions due to which Canada has to suffer.
Hope things improve by Dec, 09 or else TSX would go to doom, once its own people loose confidence in their own country's weak financial stock position.
Lets hope for the best! Goodluck to all investors, just cross your fingers and stay put
Ivan said:
I agree completely with this. Only, I projected September, but I also predict that the next low will be lower than March.
Some very smart people I know in finance have predicted a 60% drop in equities, with dividend cuts. I don't know if it will be that serious, but I think the time to take your profits is now.
stang said:
I respect Stang because he got things right the last time
. How`s your mock portfolio doing now Stang? Time for one of your portfolio updates. As per this thread.
https://terb.cc/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=221362&page=1
21pro said:
Because you said you just purchased 18 million acres of treed land and people want to know if you have mineral rights to any stuff below ground.
squash500 said:The problem is what do you do with the profits? Bond yields are very low and GIC rates are pathetic.
I don't know the answer to that. The eroding dollar coupled by coming inflation will erode the dollar value of your profits. Best bet would be to invest your profits to keep above inflation and a fluctuating dollar.
Maybe gold, maybe in actual real estate. Maybe (and this is big maybe, in oil)
The rationale for investing in gold, is that it is the standard world currency. Which means that if it does indeed fluctuate it should do so proportionally to world markets. Regional dollar fluctuations from the country a T-Bill is issued is subject to the economic conditions endemic to that country, and it's dollar may be worth less compared to other countries. Even though a T-Bill is considered a stable investment, because the government is the lendee, it does not have full control over it's worth in world markets. Some countries will have higher rates of inflation, some less, due to whether they are an importing country that relies on other countries primarily for its goods, or an exporting country like Canada, that has a wealth of natural resources that other countries need, such as oil. Other factors will include population sizes. Countries like the States that have 10 times the population to manage, will have a bigger problem. Canada is lucky in that believe it or not, we have been relatively stable. Our housing market has not felt the hit as the States, and real estate has in most areas remained stable (not areas like Windsor), but generally it has been pretty good.
However we are the US's largest trading partner, and so our assets are tied in. We will feel a pinch as the US suffers.
The next bottom hopefully will be the last for a while, but nobody really knows. Until all this bad debt gets resolved, and unemployment rates decrease, we will be economically vulnerable. And who knows when that will all get sorted out, or how. Meanwhile, we still have our own debt obligations both nationally, to maintain our country, and internationally. Expect a tax rate increase, which will further eat away at your profits as well. Social cuts in pensions etc. etc. etc. just to keep or country healthy and functioning.
Each country has similar (and worse) conditions to meet, so even if we are doing well internally, we may be dragged down by what is occurring with our trade agreements with other countries.
It's not over yet.
