The Nordic Model

[Insidious Von]

The Nordic Model is rapidly turning into The Italian Job.

Sweden's lackadaisical approach to the coronavirus is backfiring horribly, they could see Italian like numbers. Hubris is not a wonderful thing.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-10/sweden-sees-very-high-risk-of-local-contagion-as-virus-spreads

 

[Fritz96]

https://unherd.com/2020/04/jury-still-out-on-swedish-coronavirus-strategy/

 

[danmand]

The Nordic Model is rapidly turning into The Italian Job.

Sweden's lackadaisical approach to the coronavirus is backfiring horribly, they could see Italian like numbers. Hubris is not a wonderful thing.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-10/sweden-sees-very-high-risk-of-local-contagion-as-virus-spreads

While Sweden has the highest population, it is not the entirte Nort or Nordic Countries. Norway and Denmark has both done much better.

As a matter of fact, Denmark is now very slowly opening the country again.

 

[doggystyle99]

The Nordic Model is rapidly turning into The Italian Job.

Sweden's lackadaisical approach to the coronavirus is backfiring horribly, they could see Italian like numbers. Hubris is not a wonderful thing.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-10/sweden-sees-very-high-risk-of-local-contagion-as-virus-spreads

Without enforced mass quarantines or self isolation and taking into account the highly contagious level of the Coronavirus it's very easy to understand why this virus is easily transmitted to others, specially by those who are asymptomatic carriers of the virus. This very important fact about COVID-19 has been made and repeated billions of times but unfortunately the very few irrational, loud and ignorant people still don't understand.
Some of these irrational and loud people have even made the claim that what Sweden is doing is the proper way to combat the Coronavirus which is incorrect. They are making this point all in an attempt for us Canadian's or in the case of the USA the American's to open businesses and for things to go back to normal without fully understanding the ramifications it will have.

What these people fail to understand is that Sweden compared to its border neighbours (Denmark, Norway, Finland) has the worst healthcare system out of all and when you combine that with the fact that they haven't instituted nor taken the self isolation measure very seriously it's very easy to understand why they are fairing the worse out of Scandinavian countries that are border neighbours who all saw the first case of Coronavirus in the same timeline of one another, and unfortunately they will continue to have significantly more cases and deaths until they take measures of isolation or quarantines.

Sweden has 2X more total confirmed cases than Denmark and Norway, Sweden has 5X more deaths than Denmark and 10X more than Norway. The worst part in all of this is they have administered far less tests than those two nations and Sweden has a larger population by 2X more which combining those two facts together should tell one that there are many carrying the Coronavirus in Sweden without knowing due to little testing, which is a disaster waiting to happen.

Facts are without self isolation the number of confirmed cases and deaths would be substantially higher and with that there is an increase for those who will need critical care in hospitals which will ultimately overburden the healthcare system and lead to more deaths which will have exponential growth on the number. Exactly what happened in Italy, Spain and is currently happening in New York.
The sooner everyone understands this the sooner we can all get back to normal and do the things we enjoy doing.

Both Denmark (4.8% current death rate), and Norway (2.5% current death rate) have been very successful with fighting the Coronavirus and have flattened the curve. The two nations put restrictions on borders, closed schools and resorts and shut down pretty much everything meanwhile Sweden (11.5% current death rate) kept borders open, kept some schools open and kept businesses open, and they are paying dearly for it with the number of cases and deaths.
Unfortunately Sweden is very close to over burdening it's healthcare system and when that happens more spikes in number of deaths and daily confirmed cases will happen.

But yet there are some uneducated people who will use Sweden as a model to emulate in combating the Coronavirus.

 

[fall]

Unfortunately Sweden is very close to over burdening it's healthcare system and when that happens more spikes in number of deaths and daily confirmed cases will happen.

But yet there are some uneducated people who will use Sweden as a model to emulate in combating the Coronavirus.

And the thing is that Swedes understand it and they are willing to pay with lives today for keeping their economy and healthy population in the future. Is it a bad choice? I do not know. Sometime it is better to amputate and arm than to risk getting the infection spread throughout the body. In Sweden it is not "life as normal" people do wear masks, reduce physical contact, and isolate those whoa re at the greater risk. IMHO, this is 90% of the job needed. We are paying too high economic price for the remaining 10%

 

[doggystyle99]

And the thing is that Swedes understand it and they are willing to pay with lives today for keeping their economy and healthy population in the future. Is it a bad choice? I do not know. Sometime it is better to amputate and arm than to risk getting the infection spread throughout the body. In Sweden it is not "life as normal" people do wear masks, reduce physical contact, and isolate those whoa re at the greater risk. IMHO, this is 90% of the job needed. We are paying too high economic price for the remaining 10%

I actually don't believe Sweden understands what they are doing, when their healthcare system gets overburdened and people start dying at a far higher percentage than normal, it will be a problem Sweden is not ready to face, just like Italy wasn't ready. Simply doing nothing and letting people and businesses carry on as usual is not as successful as having isolation or quarantines in the fight against the Coronavirus.
When their healthcare system gets overburdened at some point the Swedish people will not want to put themselves at risk with a failing healthcare system and they will eventually start to isolate themselves and at that point the numbers of cases will start to shows signs of deceleration, not because of proper measures their government took to fight the Coronavirus but because of proper measures the people took.

Just because people wear masks doesn't change the fact that anything has changed other than wearing a mask, business are open, resorts, restaurants, gyms, cafes, bars and schools as well as it's borders are all open and the Swedish government has advised it's people to practice social distancing, leaving the onus on the people.
I highly doubt if any of the Swedish people are able to follow these guidelines while at the gym, resort, restaurant or a bar, because they are extremely hard things to do specially while in a social environment. As well these are only guidelines and not what the Swedish government has set out as enforceable laws like they are here in Canada.

 

[fall]

I actually don't believe Sweden understands what they are doing, when their healthcare system gets overburdened and people start dying at a far higher percentage than normal, it will be a problem Sweden is not ready to face, just like Italy wasn't ready. Simply doing nothing and letting people and businesses carry on as usual is not as successful as having isolation or quarantines in the fight against the Coronavirus.
When their healthcare system gets overburdened at some point the Swedish people will not want to put themselves at risk with a failing healthcare system and they will eventually start to isolate themselves and at that point the numbers of cases will start to shows signs of deceleration, not because of proper measures their government took to fight the Coronavirus but because of proper measures the people took.

Just because people wear masks doesn't change the fact that anything has changed other than wearing a mask, business are open, resorts, restaurants, gyms, cafes, bars and schools as well as it's borders are all open and the Swedish government has advised it's people to practice social distancing, leaving the onus on the people.
I highly doubt if any of the Swedish people are able to follow these guidelines while at the gym, resort, restaurant or a bar, because they are extremely hard things to do specially while in a social environment. As well these are only guidelines and not what the Swedish government has set out as enforceable laws like they are here in Canada.

Yes, but Swedes, like many Nordic people, do not kiss or hug each other all the time, and now they may give up on handshakes too. The government believes that people are smart, and they really are (and maybe it is a real difference between Swedes and Canadians?) . What they do (wear masks avoid touching, wash hands and surfaces, isolate elderly and ones at risk) is the most important part of epidemic prevention. What we do is surely reduce infection more, but not by much more. Let's say Swedes method is only 80% as effective as ours. But they pay only 10% of the costs that we do. And we did not take into account the effect of increased poverty on mortality rate.

 

[doggystyle99]

Yes, but Swedes, like many Nordic people, do not kiss or hug each other all the time, and now they may give up on handshakes too. The government believes that people are smart, and they really are (and maybe it is a real difference between Swedes and Canadians?) . What they do (wear masks avoid touching, wash hands and surfaces, isolate elderly and ones at risk) is the most important part of epidemic prevention. What we do is surely reduce infection more, but not by much more. Let's say Swedes method is only 80% as effective as ours. But they pay only 10% of the costs that we do. And we did not take into account the effect of increased poverty on mortality rate.

Although you may think the difference between what Sweden is doing might be as high as 80% as effective as what another country with the same criteria (geographical, population, population density, societal structure, and healthcare) that is enforcing strict lockdowns and closing of non essential businesses would be I think the difference would be far much wider gap in percentages than that in confirmed cases and far more significant with the numbers of death.

We simply have to look at the current numbers. A good example of that is to compare what is currently happening with Sweden to it's immediate bordering neighbours Denmark and Norway, who saw the first of the Coronavirus cases in the same timeline as one another, both Denmark and Norway took strict border and non essential business closure measures meanwhile Sweden did the exact opposite.
Both Denmark (4.8% current death rate) and Norway (2.5% current death rate) have substantially less confirmed cases and deaths as well as drastically a lower percentage death rate than Sweden (11.5% current death rate), they also have a substantially less number of cases/Mln than Sweden 1517 VS 1326, and 1329, and they also have a drastically lower number of deaths/Mln of Sweden at 175 VS 64, and 34.

 

[G.D. Gentleman]

A different perspective...

Comparing against static numbers - each countries reported population - looking at the COVID-19 deaths per Million:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

Sweden - Currently 155 per Million of Population with their Economy open.

What will other countries been in the months to come when they open their economies again?


Comparing right now 'in the moment' countries with closed economies to Sweden that kept theirs open is Apples to Oranges. A much more realistic comparison will be in 3-6 months and comparing countries with open economies at that point.

Sweden may (and perhaps likely) be much higher deaths per million - or perhaps not - hard to say at this point.

Last interesting note from the link above is other countries with closed economies are much higher deaths per million then Sweden right now, how high will they go when they open their economies again and perhaps a second wave hits...


Just a perspective to share that I found interesting. I am grateful and thankful Canada has taken the approach that we have and plan to self isolate for some time to come.

 

[doggystyle99]

A different perspective...

Comparing against static numbers - each countries reported population - looking at the COVID-19 deaths per Million:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

Sweden - Currently 155 per Million of Population with their Economy open.

What will other countries been in the months to come when they open their economies again?


Comparing right now 'in the moment' countries with closed economies to Sweden that kept theirs open is Apples to Oranges. A much more realistic comparison will be in 3-6 months and comparing countries with open economies at that point.

Sweden may (and perhaps likely) be much higher deaths per million - or perhaps not - hard to say at this point.

Last interesting note from the link above is other countries with closed economies are much higher deaths per million then Sweden right now, how high will they go when they open their economies again and perhaps a second wave hits...


Just a perspective to share that I found interesting. I am grateful and thankful Canada has taken the approach that we have and plan to self isolate for some time to come.

To say Sweden may or may not have a higher deaths per million than others on the list or to say it's hard to say at this point is to ignore the facts and numbers revolving around the spread of COVID-19.
Every single country from that list (Belgium, Spain, Italy, France, UK, Netherland, Switzerland) that has more deaths per Million than Sweden currently is a country that knew the virus was spreading in the world as well as in their own country and did not enforce strict isolation/quarantine measures or the closing of non essential businesses to combat the spread of the virus, they kept businesses operating as normal only to be forced to take strict measures when the numbers of confirmed cases and deaths were rapidly rising, and at a point that it was too late to curb the spread of the virus. Sweden is close to that tipping point.

It's very important to understand the numbers as it's all relevant to the facts and curves and how they end up, in all those countries with more deaths/Mln than Sweden has currently they all had a far lower percentage of death rate than what currently Sweden (11.5%) is at and all those countries have a higher death rate now than when they were at the same point as Sweden is now 15000 confirmed cases. Why is this important because Sweden has not had their healthcare system overburdened yet and when it happens it's going to have a dramatic spike in the numbers of deaths as well as the death rate.
Unless one is assuming that Sweden is and will be different than every other country and none of what has transpired can apply to them or one is wishfully assuming that tomorrow morning there will no more further cases or deaths in Sweden. I do not see any of those assumptions being realistic when the facts have proven otherwise.

Belgium------------6.6%-------now--14.6%
Spain---------------4.3%-------now--10.4%
Italy----------------6.7%-------now--13.4%
France-------------4.2%-------now--13.2%
UK------------------6.0%-------now--13.4%
Netherlands-------9.4%-------now--11.5%
Switzerland--------2.0%-------now--5.3%
VS
Sweden------------11.5% Currently

 

[Malibuk]

A different perspective...

Comparing against static numbers - each countries reported population - looking at the COVID-19 deaths per Million:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

Sweden - Currently 155 per Million of Population with their Economy open.

What will other countries been in the months to come when they open their economies again?


Comparing right now 'in the moment' countries with closed economies to Sweden that kept theirs open is Apples to Oranges. A much more realistic comparison will be in 3-6 months and comparing countries with open economies at that point.

Sweden may (and perhaps likely) be much higher deaths per million - or perhaps not - hard to say at this point.

Last interesting note from the link above is other countries with closed economies are much higher deaths per million then Sweden right now, how high will they go when they open their economies again and perhaps a second wave hits...


Just a perspective to share that I found interesting. I am grateful and thankful Canada has taken the approach that we have and plan to self isolate for some time to come.

For fuck`s sake GD, why are you trying to make sense?

Don`t you know that there are know-it-all expert epidemiologists here who will consider this blasphemy?

Please let them call the winner in the 3rd inning and keep blowing their loads over themselves.

 

[danmand]

Although you may think the difference between what Sweden is doing might be as high as 80% as effective as what another country with the same criteria (geographical, population, population density, societal structure, and healthcare) that is enforcing strict lockdowns and closing of non essential businesses would be I think the difference would be far much wider gap in percentages than that in confirmed cases and far more significant with the numbers of death.

We simply have to look at the current numbers. A good example of that is to compare what is currently happening with Sweden to it's immediate bordering neighbours Denmark and Norway, who saw the first of the Coronavirus cases in the same timeline as one another, both Denmark and Norway took strict border and non essential business closure measures meanwhile Sweden did the exact opposite.
Both Denmark (4.8% current death rate) and Norway (2.5% current death rate) have substantially less confirmed cases and deaths as well as drastically a lower percentage death rate than Sweden (11.5% current death rate), they also have a substantially less number of cases/Mln than Sweden 1517 VS 1326, and 1329, and they also have a drastically lower number of deaths/Mln of Sweden at 175 VS 64, and 34.

I think it is best to stay with the number of deaths per capita, as different countries have done testing differently and in varying numbers:

Again: Denmark 370 Norway 182 Sweden 1765

Population of Denmark + population of Norway = Population of Sweden

 

[IRIS]

Yes, maybe today other countries stats are better. I like to see just the suicidal stats from 2021-22, and you could calculate who lost more.

 

[Smallcock]

I think it is best to stay with the number of deaths per capita, as different countries have done testing differently and in varying numbers:

Again: Denmark 370 Norway 182 Sweden 1765

Population of Denmark + population of Norway = Population of Sweden

If Sweden stays course, they won't have a second, third, fourth wave. But other countries will. So, who comes out ahead is really uncertain. You and doggy are jumping the gun based on current results which don't tell the tale.

 

[Malibuk]

I think it is best to stay with the number of deaths per capita, as different countries have done testing differently and in varying numbers:

Again: Denmark 370 Norway 182 Sweden 1765

Population of Denmark + population of Norway = Population of Sweden

You are correct as the case-fatality rate is totally useless now, and it is hard to imagine why anyone would continually spew this bullshit.

In Ontario now, the case-fatality rate is 5%.
For this to be a real fatality rate, that would mean the other 98.5% of the population has 0 infections.
Plus this does not even consider those who tested negative but already have anti-bodies.

Anyways, it is was too early to compare apples to apples.
You may very well prove to be right.
At least you have a rational open mind and don`t just assume that your opinion is a fact, and anyone who questions you is an uneducated fool.

It is also quite possible that we may need to wait until the end of the 2nd wave to truly see the results of the Sweden approach.
They may have taken the brunt early on and we may be kicking the can down the road.
Plus, seasonal virus dissipation could push out the day of reckoning for some.

 

[doggystyle99]

I think it is best to stay with the number of deaths per capita, as different countries have done testing differently and in varying numbers:

Again: Denmark 370 Norway 182 Sweden 1765

Population of Denmark + population of Norway = Population of Sweden

When comparing countries like Sweden, Denmark and Norway who have very similar geographical, population, population density, societal structure, and healthcare system who all saw the first of the Coronavirus cases in the same timeline as one another it is very comparable to have the death rates of the countries compared to one another.
I do agree that the the deaths per capita is a better number to use for comparisons hence why I've used it over and over along the death rate. But my point is this which I have made numerous times is that Sweden has not been as successful as it's immediate border neighbours Denmark and Norway who both instituted strict measures, meanwhile there are some posters who keep touting what Sweden is doing is working and have used the same daily death numbers decrease dating back to April 12th as evidence of their success, and that we should emulate it here in Canada all in an attempt to open businesses up, but the facts continue to prove otherwise. Sweden is on the verge of having their healthcare system overburdened due to their inactions in the fight against the Coronavirus.

When these posters were touting Sweden as a model to emulate here as soon as they had a two day drop in the numbers of cases and numbers of deaths on April 12 I told these posters that Sweden's numbers weren't going to magically subside because of a two day drop, and these numbers will keep going up until they have some social distancing measures in place and Sweden is not a model to emulate here.
It really doesn't take a rocket scientist to look at the current statistics from Sweden, and compare it to Norway and Denmark then figure out which country is doing better now and then combine the statistics with the facts revolving around the Coronavirus into consideration and come to an educated guess of which country will fare better in the long run. Thankfully some of us have that critical thinking and don't need right wing nut bar websites or social media feeds to give us their false version of that information.

"We do not have to go to Mars to tell us what to do. We only have to look to Sweden."
https://terb.cc/vbulletin/showthrea...ll-this-last&p=6675788&viewfull=1#post6675788

https://terb.cc/vbulletin/showthrea...ll-this-last&p=6675929&viewfull=1#post6675929

 

[danmand]

When comparing countries like Sweden, Denmark and Norway who have very similar geographical, population, population density, societal structure, and healthcare system who all saw the first of the Coronavirus cases in the same timeline as one another it is very comparable to have the death rates of the countries compared to one another.
I do agree that the the deaths per capita is a better number to use for comparisons hence why I've used it over and over along the death rate. But my point is this which I have made numerous times is that Sweden has not been as successful as it's immediate border neighbours Denmark and Norway who both instituted strict measures, meanwhile there are some posters who keep touting what Sweden is doing is working and have used the same daily death numbers decrease dating back to April 12th as evidence of their success, and that we should emulate it here in Canada all in an attempt to open businesses up, but the facts continue to prove otherwise. Sweden is on the verge of having their healthcare system overburdened due to their inactions in the fight against the Coronavirus.

When these posters were touting Sweden as a model to emulate here as soon as they had a two day drop in the numbers of cases and numbers of deaths on April 12 I told these posters that Sweden's numbers weren't going to magically subside because of a two day drop, and these numbers will keep going up until they have some social distancing measures in place and Sweden is not a model to emulate here.
It really doesn't take a rocket scientist to look at the current statistics from Sweden, and compare it to Norway and Denmark then figure out which country is doing better now and then combine the statistics with the facts revolving around the Coronavirus into consideration and come to an educated guess of which country will fare better in the long run. Thankfully some of us have that critical thinking and don't need right wing nut bar websites or social media feeds to give us their false version of that information.

"We do not have to go to Mars to tell us what to do. We only have to look to Sweden."

I totally agree. I posted in another thread:

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...untry/denmark/


https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/sweden/

 

[doggystyle99]

I totally agree. I posted in another thread:

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...untry/denmark/

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/sweden/

I called that certain people were pushing this Conservatives agenda without facts supporting their assertions. In early April Fake Fox & Friends was spreading this information by using Newt Gingrich, Laura Ingraham and president Trump's darling Sucker Carlson as their mouthpiece. The spread of false information regarding the success of what Sweden is doing in the fight against the Coronavirus is all Fake Fox & Friends talking points all in an attempt to open up the American economy.

 

[fall]

When comparing countries like Sweden, Denmark and Norway who have very similar geographical, population, population density, societal structure, and healthcare system who all saw the first of the Coronavirus cases in the same timeline as one another it is very comparable to have the death rates of the countries compared to one another.
I do agree that the the deaths per capita is a better number to use for comparisons hence why I've used it over and over along the death rate. But my point is this which I have made numerous times is that Sweden has not been as successful as it's immediate border neighbours Denmark and Norway who both instituted strict measures, meanwhile there are some posters who keep touting what Sweden is doing is working and have used the same daily death numbers decrease dating back to April 12th as evidence of their success, and that we should emulate it here in Canada all in an attempt to open businesses up, but the facts continue to prove otherwise. Sweden is on the verge of having their healthcare system overburdened due to their inactions in the fight against the Coronavirus.

When these posters were touting Sweden as a model to emulate here as soon as they had a two day drop in the numbers of cases and numbers of deaths on April 12 I told these posters that Sweden's numbers weren't going to magically subside because of a two day drop, and these numbers will keep going up until they have some social distancing measures in place and Sweden is not a model to emulate here.
It really doesn't take a rocket scientist to look at the current statistics from Sweden, and compare it to Norway and Denmark then figure out which country is doing better now and then combine the statistics with the facts revolving around the Coronavirus into consideration and come to an educated guess of which country will fare better in the long run. Thankfully some of us have that critical thinking and don't need right wing nut bar websites or social media feeds to give us their false version of that information.

"We do not have to go to Mars to tell us what to do. We only have to look to Sweden."
https://terb.cc/vbulletin/showthrea...ll-this-last&p=6675788&viewfull=1#post6675788

https://terb.cc/vbulletin/showthrea...ll-this-last&p=6675929&viewfull=1#post6675929

Comparing Sweden to Denmark today is the same as comparing modern England with 18-century France: these countries are in different times although similar geographic location. Today's Sweden is way ahead in pandemic curve then today's Denmark: strict isolation not only flattens the curve, but also shifts it to the right. To do the right comparison we should take the average from March 2020 till September 2021 (for 18 months), but, since, such data is not available yet, we should compare today's Denmark with Sweden 2-3 weeks ago (since Denmark isolation shiftier the curve to the right, i.e, the time flies faster in Sweden). And based on this comparison, Sweden wins.

 

[G.D. Gentleman]

Thank you for all the detailed replies and opinions. I appreciate this thread.

The struggle I feel (and sure others do) is a country can have a period where, because of increased testing (finally) their confirmed case number goes way up - let's say over a 1-2 week period - and their deaths from COVID-19 in that same period, a much more exact statistic - continues along - the math then says the 'death rate' changes, goes down - and people make decisions based on that - when really, all those positive cases were simply not reported yet.

This is my struggle when attempting to take stock in the death rates being reported, this early on.


One more point in time interesting stat - from this well known table of information about the Virus:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

The U.S. has reached 12,815 tests...per million population. The U.S. has 328.2 million citizens so the math says 4.2 million tests have been completed and assuming anyone re-tested doesn't add to this stat - works out to be only 1.27% of their Citizens have been tested to date.

Canada is up to 15,099 tests per million, 567,000 tests completed or approximately 1.5% of our total population.


Based on this we have a long way to go before testing will have much more stable and conclusive numbers.

Stay safe everyone.