Before WW1 piracy on the high sea’s…. Both from State, and scoundrel’s was very real. Shipping cost money. And taking a vessel usually paid off.
After WW2, the US tried something different. As the largest Navy left among nations, they would patrol the global shipping routes in exchange for being on there team against Communist USSR. This allowed Globalism to happen. Now any nation with resources was free to manufacture and trade.
Before that, you needed access to shipping routes, and needed food, coal, oil, and iron ore to be an empire. The Ottoman Empire thrived due to their geography, access shipping, and happened to be along shipping routes and could tax vessels passing through with cargo.
But the USSR fell. The US has retired hundreds of destroyers, and now is more focused on Super Carriers… they have 13. While still the strongest Navy by 10 fold, not nearly enough to police the oceans.
The US is nearly energy independent, and no longer has the political will to police the globe. They have access to resources. Access to shipping on both sides of the country… and a road network to transport good.
Places like South America, Africa, and even China are difficult to connect with road because of the mountains and plains.
Other nations that did assembling with cheap labour will collapse. Nations without access to shipping will fall. And nations that have to import energy and food will fair well.
Demographics show many countries with more older people than young… that does not help when you need a work force. China used to have a young population…. Now it’s aged. Not enough young people to continue cheap labour. Cost of labour has gone 7 fold in China. Mexico now has cheaper labour, and far more skilled at a third of the cost. Partnered with the US, they too will thrive.
Texas will boom because of location as jobs come back to the US. Shipping, and a high tech hub. Low taxes, and decent services. (Looking at you Houston).
Canada will ride the USA’s coat tails, providing high end tech… however, we will be competing with the US in that market. As long as we continue to emigrate a young work force away from other countries, we should be fine.