The 2017 Blue Jay season thread
- Thread starter Phil C. McNasty
- Start date
To-day's game is a good example of what happens when a 3rd world baseball team plays a 1st world baseball team. This whole series is a good example of what happens when a 3rd world baseball team plays a 1st world baseball team. No contest. Why don't they handicap baseball teams (like in golf)? It's only fair.
Agree a rebuilding team can be fun. But watching an aging team in decline is no fun.
Bosox outclassed the Jays. Embarrassing.
Hey but the Yanks and Astros are next before the AS break. Couple of the best AL teams. Could get real ugly in the next week.
Never seen something quite like this before...
Except for a few flashes -- winning streaks -- every now and then, I can't believe a team with so much talent can play so badly for so long... going back to the early part of last season.
It seems as if the players, one by one, over the past 12 games or so, have just been shutting it down and quitting... and now, just going through the motions...
There will be some blood letting over the next few days or over the break. I can't see Gibbons surviving it...
Perry
Except for a few flashes -- winning streaks -- every now and then, I can't believe a team with so much talent can play so badly for so long... going back to the early part of last season.
It seems as if the players, one by one, over the past 12 games or so, have just been shutting it down and quitting... and now, just going through the motions...
There will be some blood letting over the next few days or over the break. I can't see Gibbons surviving it...
Perry
Just two years ago, they boasted an unstoppable array of sluggers that not only led the league in runs, but managed to put a Grand Canyon sized gap between themselves and the second best offensive team. The details are as follows: The 2015 Blue Jays scored 891 runs, 127 more than the Yankees who plated the second most at 764.
Everybody knew this lineup would regress as Bautista, Donaldson, Tulo and others aged, but nobody could have predicted it would dry up this fast. The 127 run cushion they had over the Yankees in 2015 felt like a buffer. The idea was that even if they fall back to the group, they should still rank among the best lineups in baseball, or at worse, blend into the middle of the field.
That just hasn’t happened. Instead they’ve gone on a free fall over the last two years, and in terms of pure runs scored, they now rank second to last in the American League. Through 80 games, they’ve only plated 334 runs, which puts them on pace to score just 676 runs over the course of the season.
But it’s even worse than it sounds, because while the Blue Jays have spent the last two years regressing offensively, the rest of baseball has been moving in the opposite direction. In 2015, the average MLB offense scored 688 runs. In 2017, the average MLB offense is on pace to score 755 runs. So the Blue Jays went from scoring 203 runs more than the average team in baseball to now being on pace to score 79 runs less than the average team.
Bottom line: They’ve lost 282 runs to the pack in just two years. How could it disappear that fast?
Not only did the Jays come in last, but there’s a 27 run gap between them and the next worst team for the month of June. That’s with only 36 runs separating the second and 14th place teams.
Near the end of the month, the Jays faced the Orioles for a three game series at home. This is a team that allowed five or more runs in 21 of their last 22 games before visiting Rogers Centre. They were the perfect get well medicine for this offense, and the Jays only managed to put up a total of five runs during the entire three game series. When you can’t hit the Orioles at home, sirens should be going off.
Sure, the Jays aren’t that bad, but a good offensive team doesn’t spend a month undershooting the rest of the league by this many runs. The bounce back will only take them so far. Bautista and Tulowitzki are shells of their former selves, Donaldson is still a great player, but he’s coming down off his MVP productivity, Edwin Encarnacion is gone, and second base will continue to be a black hole with Travis on the DL.
It’s also worth noting that the Blue Jays are even worse at scoring runs than they are at batting. Usually the difference between those skills as a team are minimal, but not with the 2017 Jays. Toronto has grounded into more double plays (84) than any team in baseball. They’re awful at taking the extra base on a hit, and they’re second to last among all 30 MLB teams in Fangraphs’ BsR stat, which tries to measure all facets of base running.
In short, if this team isn’t hitting the ball over the wall, they’re not producing runs. They do rank a little better at hammering the long ball - Their 106 home runs puts them seventh in a AL - but that’s just not anywhere near good enough for a line up that has a .315 on base percentage, hits into double plays, and often needs three non home run hits to get around the bases.
Despite what the names on the back of the jerseys say, this just isn’t a good offense anymore. The trends are unmistakable, and the sample size is getting too big to ignore. https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2017...ys-once-mighty-lineup-has-all-but-disappeared
Everybody knew this lineup would regress as Bautista, Donaldson, Tulo and others aged, but nobody could have predicted it would dry up this fast. The 127 run cushion they had over the Yankees in 2015 felt like a buffer. The idea was that even if they fall back to the group, they should still rank among the best lineups in baseball, or at worse, blend into the middle of the field.
That just hasn’t happened. Instead they’ve gone on a free fall over the last two years, and in terms of pure runs scored, they now rank second to last in the American League. Through 80 games, they’ve only plated 334 runs, which puts them on pace to score just 676 runs over the course of the season.
But it’s even worse than it sounds, because while the Blue Jays have spent the last two years regressing offensively, the rest of baseball has been moving in the opposite direction. In 2015, the average MLB offense scored 688 runs. In 2017, the average MLB offense is on pace to score 755 runs. So the Blue Jays went from scoring 203 runs more than the average team in baseball to now being on pace to score 79 runs less than the average team.
Bottom line: They’ve lost 282 runs to the pack in just two years. How could it disappear that fast?
Not only did the Jays come in last, but there’s a 27 run gap between them and the next worst team for the month of June. That’s with only 36 runs separating the second and 14th place teams.
Near the end of the month, the Jays faced the Orioles for a three game series at home. This is a team that allowed five or more runs in 21 of their last 22 games before visiting Rogers Centre. They were the perfect get well medicine for this offense, and the Jays only managed to put up a total of five runs during the entire three game series. When you can’t hit the Orioles at home, sirens should be going off.
Sure, the Jays aren’t that bad, but a good offensive team doesn’t spend a month undershooting the rest of the league by this many runs. The bounce back will only take them so far. Bautista and Tulowitzki are shells of their former selves, Donaldson is still a great player, but he’s coming down off his MVP productivity, Edwin Encarnacion is gone, and second base will continue to be a black hole with Travis on the DL.
It’s also worth noting that the Blue Jays are even worse at scoring runs than they are at batting. Usually the difference between those skills as a team are minimal, but not with the 2017 Jays. Toronto has grounded into more double plays (84) than any team in baseball. They’re awful at taking the extra base on a hit, and they’re second to last among all 30 MLB teams in Fangraphs’ BsR stat, which tries to measure all facets of base running.
In short, if this team isn’t hitting the ball over the wall, they’re not producing runs. They do rank a little better at hammering the long ball - Their 106 home runs puts them seventh in a AL - but that’s just not anywhere near good enough for a line up that has a .315 on base percentage, hits into double plays, and often needs three non home run hits to get around the bases.
Despite what the names on the back of the jerseys say, this just isn’t a good offense anymore. The trends are unmistakable, and the sample size is getting too big to ignore. https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2017...ys-once-mighty-lineup-has-all-but-disappeared
I can't see them firing Gibby at this point. Still to much money left on his contract. I think if they let him go, it won't be until about the middle of next year. The team is going to suck for the next few years most likely, and no manager will help that. No point in wasting the money that you'll have to pay out to Gibby for the remainder of his contract.
If they take 5 of 7 from the Yankees and Stros, I might start fooling myself again!
But realistically it's not going to happen. Maybe the Yanks, who have been cooling off. But the Stros are dynamite. If the Jays slide, it's just going to make it easier to decide to deal off veterans and write off the season and bring up the kids from AAA.
Sadly, the Jays lack the prospects in Buffalo except for Rowdy Telluz but he is a first baseman and as we now know, the Jays have a pretty good first baseman at the moment. The only position for Telluz is DH but that means sitting or trading Morales
The Jays have failed the test over the past 10 games. They have too many teams in front of them.
I am looking forward to the start of training camp, for the Maple Leafs.
When he was good earlier this year (pre-incident) his explanation was that he wasn't swinging at balls outside the strike zone anymore.
Whatever he did to get better at that, he needs to do it again.
